2024 MLB Draft Prospect Analysis: Prep SS (Part 1)

(9/14/23) With the 2024 MLB draft on the horizon, we delve deep into the potential of high school shortstops Cole Crafton and Theodore Gillen.

Originally published on Medium on September 14, 2023.

Welcome to the first installment of a series where I analyze top high school and college prospects that will be eligible to be selected in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. From now until the beginning of next season, I intend to complete a comprehensive analysis of all of the top prospects eligible to be selected in next July’s Draft. This article will analyze Cole Crafton and Theodore Gillen, two high school shortstops who are amongst the Top 100 prospects eligible to be selected in next year’s draft.

Since I was not able to watch either of these prospects in-person during the past season, I will primarily rely on video footage (from either YouTube, Perfect Game, or social media) to analyze these two prospects. Onto the scouting reports!:

Cole Crafton (SS — Manhattan, IL, committed to Louisville):

Standing at a sturdy 6’3” and 205 pounds, Cole Crafton brings an imposing figure to the plate that projects to translate into power production, and allow him to potentially transition off of shortstop to a corner infield position in the future.

Crafton displays a compact swing that leverages a short stride, shaping him as a hitter that has the potential to consistently hit for contact in the future. Crafton also displays excellent barrel control, which allows him to make solid contact with pitches at both the top and bottom of the zone and is an indicator of his ability to make in-game adjustments. In the future, I would like to further evaluate Crafton’s swing decisions (either in-person or on video), however there is insufficient video footage available at the moment to accurately project Crafton’s plate discipline abilities.

Crafton does appear to have a pull-focused approach, as he did “pull-off” with his swing on a pitch on the outside corner, however Crafton was able to take this pitch the other way. While there is certainly nothing wrong with a player like Crafton leveraging a pull-heavy approach to tap into their raw power, this potential will leave Crafton with a weakness covering pitches on the outer-third of the plate at the next level. Being able to take this pitch the other way would improve Crafton’s hit tool grade, and given his compact swing and ability to make in-game adjustments, I believe he can make this adjustment moving forward.

At the present, we lack the contemporary video footage to fully assess Crafton’s defensive abilities, such as his arm strength and arm utility. Given his plus size for a shortstop, projecting his future on the defensive spectrum suggests possibilities such as moving to third base or a corner outfield position in the future. Since playing at these positions at the Major League level requires above-average offensive production, it is easy to envision Crafton moving down the defensive spectrum in the future given his offensive upside.

As the 2024 MLB Draft approaches, Cole Crafton positions himself as a high-ceiling prospect, with substantial power and offensive upside, His physical build and projectable skills at the plate hint at a promising career, potentially at a corner infield position if he moves off of shortstop in the future. While further assessment of his defensive capabilities and plate discipline remain a crucial next step, Crafton’s existing skill-set paints the picture of a young athlete with a notable foundation that I will be keeping an eye on throughout the upcoming high school season.

Theodore Gillen (SS — Austin, TX, committed to Texas):

Standing tall at 6’3” and weighing in at 198 pounds, Theodore Gillen has notably packed on muscle over the past couple of years. Although he might be nearing his physical ceiling in terms of growth, his current build offers a blend of power and athleticism that could serve him well at the next level.

Gillen demonstrates a loose yet controlled stance at the plate, marrying this with a fluid swing that can generate power, particularly to the pull side. This power seems to stem from his commendable hip rotation and ability to make contact on pitches “out in front” of the plate, allowing him to effectively turn on pitches located on the inner-third and hit them in the air to right field. While this approach is certainly effective at generating power, it also makes Gillen potentially susceptible to pitches on the outer-third of the plate, particularly off-speed pitches. I have yet to see Gillen make solid contact on an outside pitch to the opposite field, and while I have only seen a very small sample size of at-bats, I hypothesize that it could be due to his pull-heavy approach.

I also have questions about Gillen’s ability to hit pitches at the top of the strike zone. In all of the video footage I have watched of Gillen, an array of swinging strikes, ground balls, and foul tips were consistent results on pitches he saw at the top of the zone. This raises questions about Gillen’s barrel control and also brings my attention to the awkward lower-body load he utilizes in the above video. Taking a look at his back leg, Gillen appears to be “loading to lift” (similar to a grooved swing), which makes it very difficult to adjust to pitches at the top of the zone given the extra movements required to get on plane with the pitch. This is the only video clip where I’ve seen this type of load from Gillen, but it is symbolic of issues he may encounter with pitches up-in-the-zone in the future.

While video footage of Gillen’s defensive abilities is somewhat limited, it should be noted that his throwing in his Perfect Game Showcase video appeared to be more aimed at clocking high velocity numbers rather than demonstrating arm utility. This leaves a pertinent question mark hanging over his defensive capabilities and the true extent of his arm utility in game situations, necessitating further scouting in this area in the future.

Theodore Gillen stands as an intriguing prospect with a physical presence that commands attention. His fluid swing and power generation to the pull side shine as bright spots despite questions regarding his ability to handle pitches up-in-the-zone. While Gillen’s athleticism and physicality signal a player that has a considerable ceiling, further scouting of Gillen’s defensive abilities and offensive approach are needed to draw a more accurate conclusion about what Gillen’s ceiling is projected to be at the next level.

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