2024 MLB Draft Prospect Analysis: Prep Bats (Part 1)
(1/10/24) Comprehensive analysis of five prep hitters eligible to be selected in the 2024 MLB Draft.
Originally published on Medium on January 10, 2024.
Welcome to the next installment of a series where I analyze top high school and college prospects that will be eligible to be selected in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. From now until the beginning of next season, I intend to complete a comprehensive analysis of all the top prospects eligible to be selected in next July’s draft. This article will analyze Caleb Bonemer, Derek Curiel, PJ Morlando, Slade Caldwell, and Aiden Harris: five prep hitters slated to be selected in this year’s draft.
Caleb Bonemer (SS — Michigan):
Currently committed to Virginia, Caleb Bonemer displays a potent mix of speed, power, and ability to play shortstop which will surely make him an intriguing prospect to many Major League organizations, and is a candidate to move up draft boards this spring.
As shown by the video above, Caleb Bonemer has a smooth, simple, and strong swing, utilizing a simple stride, and making it easy to envision lots of power potential moving forward. Bonemer starts his stance with quite a vertical bat angle, and he can really get into his legs to make hard contact on pitches at the bottom of the zone. I can envision pitchers being afraid to pitch to Bonemer in the bottom half of the strike zone in the future. I wouldn’t put a plus rating on Bonemer’s ability to be adjustable and make contact on pitches at the top half of the strike zone, but I wouldn’t consider him to have a grooved swing, so he is most likely around average in this regard. Bonemer is also not afraid to make contact on pitches out in front of the plate, allowing him to tap into his raw power and drive pitches with hard contact to the pull side.
As shown from this in-game video from January 2023, Bonemer definitely has a plan at the plate and his ability to make good swing decisions is noticeable. Over the course of this game, he took two pitches on the inner-third that appeared to be balls (at least, borderline) but were called strikes by the home plate umpire. In addition to not being flustered by a frustrating strike call, this reaction shows Bonemer’s commitment to swinging at pitches that he is able to hit for hard contact, which indicates to me that he will be able to both tap into his power at the next level, as well be able to exhibit good plate discipline as a professional. Bonemer’s ability to shorten up his stance with two strikes is a testament to his ability to make adjustments when at the plate, and his ability to still make hard contact when shortening up his stance.
Currently listed as a shortstop, it will be interesting to see if Bonemer stays at the position moving forward or eventually makes the move over to third base. While Bonemer is already strong and quite built, I think he could add some more upper-body strength in the future, and Bonemer himself said that “getting bigger and stronger is the main thing” in a recent interview. Bonemer also possesses good speed, running a 6.35 second 60-yard dash at a 2023 Perfect Game Showcase. Regardless of which position he plays at the next level, Bonemer is a great bat with excellent potential and I would expect him to move up draft boards if he has an outstanding prep season this spring.
Derek Curiel (OF — California):
Currently committed to LSU, Derek Curiel is currently ranked as the #1 prep prospect by Perfect Game. While his defensive ability in center field has drawn praise, questions remain regarding his offensive ability which will be key to determining his potential at the professional level.
As shown by the video above, Curiel displays an open stance when at the plate, before “rocking” into his load. Curiel displays a very projectable frame, and his ability to develop more strength and muscle will be key to determining his power potential heading into the future. At the moment, Curiel can definitely be considered more hit-over-power, and adding to his frame will definitely allow him to both increase his ability to hit for power and raise his offensive ceiling.
While I am working with an incredibly small sample size of one batting practice session and no in-game footage, I am more bearish on Curiel’s hit tool than most analysts. I have questions about his barrel control and adjustability simply due to the amount of pop-ups and ground balls I saw during batting practice. I also would’ve liked to see him drive more pitches to left field, as pitches over the outer-third of the plate tended to be hit for pop-ups in foul territory. Once again, I have to emphasize that this is an incredibly small sample size, but it drew my attention enough where I had to mention it as a part of my report.
Most scouting reports indicate that Curiel is outstanding defensively in center field, and that should provide him with a solid floor given the defensive value of the position. Curiel’s offensive potential depends on his ability to add power and whether he is able to consistently hit for contact in-game. I would’ve liked to see more in-game footage of him in order to evaluate his swing decisions, but I would say that his ceiling would be a below-average to average hitter with plus defensive ability. This might not be the projection expected for the #1 prospect in a class, and this certainly could change if Curiel gains strength or dazzles with his hit tool this spring. While his defensive ability in Center Field provides him with a comfortable floor, whether or not Curiel is able to produce offensively at the professional level will be key in determining his value as a prospect.
PJ Morlando (1B/OF — South Carolina):
Currently committed to South Carolina, PJ Morlando displays a combination of raw power, hit tool, and plate discipline that makes him one of the best all-around hitters in his class, and gives him the potential to be an offensive force at the professional level.
As shown by the video above, PJ Morlando displays a batting stance which will inevitably be compared to Juan Soto, really getting into his legs and staying low to the ground throughout his load. This allows for Morlando to “shrink” the zone and gives him more time to make adjustments to the incoming pitch, allowing for him to generate more contact. Reaching an exit velocity of 103 mph at the 2023 Perfect Game Showcase, Morlando displays an excellent ability to hit the ball hard all throughout the strike zone. Morlando also clearly has a plan when he is at the plate, displaying good swing decisions and plate discipline which will translate well to the next level.
While watching video from this past year’s U-18 Baseball World Cup, I found it interesting that Morlando’s batting stance was more upright and less of an extreme crouch that he displayed in June. With this altercation, Morlando is still able to display good plate discipline and retains his ability to make consistent hard contact at the plate. This adjustment speaks favorably to Morlando’s ability to make adjustments, and should give a Major League organization confidence that he would be able to make the proper adjustments to his stance and approach when he arrives at the inevitable “slumps” and “valleys” that will occur at the professional level.
Morlando currently projects as a corner outfielder or first baseman, which is understandable given his current frame. Morlando currently plays center field on his high school team and while that would be incredible if he was able to play center at the next level, that appears to be a pipe dream. PJ Morlando’s ability to hit the ball hard and make good swing decisions provides him with an excellent offensive floor that should translate well to the professional level, and I would expect him to be selected during the middle of the first round in the 2024 MLB Draft.
Slade Caldwell (OF — Arkansas):
Currently committed to Ole Miss, Slade Caldwell displays plus athleticism and on-base ability reminiscent of a prototypical leadoff hitter, which gives him a high floor as a prospect with considerable upside if he is able to add some power to his offensive approach.
As shown by the video above, Slade Caldwell displays a slightly open stance which is loose and able to generate good bat speed through the zone. Caldwell displays good barrel control, with the ability to be adjustable on pitches located at both the top and bottom of the strike zone. Caldwell’s plate discipline really stands out, as he makes good swing decisions and has shown a plus ability to draw walks. As one of the fastest runners in his class, Caldwell has shown to be a threat on the basepaths and his on-base prowess has provided him with many stolen base opportunities. Caldwell suffered a leg surgery during the middle of 2023 season, and it will be interesting to see if his speed recovers 100%. If it does fully rebound, then his on-base ability coupled with his ability to steal bases provides him with a nice floor as an offensive player.
Defensively, Caldwell projects to be a left fielder due to his below-average arm strength, though I imagine that he can play at least a serviceable center field due to his plus speed. When it comes to Caldwell’s ability to hit for power, I am more bullish than most analysts on his ability to tap into some in-game power moving forward. Despite being 5’9”, Caldwell is well-built and has noticeable strength. I would like to see Caldwell turn on pitches more frequently, and I believe that he can generate more rotation in his swing in order to make this possible. Not to say he is going to become a big-time slugger by any means, but I think it’s possible for Caldwell to hit for 15 home runs a season if he is able to tap into his in-game power more effectively, and his ceiling would increase quite a bit if he does reach this power projection. Slade Caldwell possesses an impressive combination of plate discipline and baserunning ability, and there is real star potential if he is able to tap into some more in-game power at the plate.
Aiden Harris (3B — Virginia):
Currently committed to Virginia, Aiden Harris possesses some of the biggest raw power in his class, and his ability to translate this power to in-game success will go a long way to determining his value as a prospect.
As shown by this video from the 2023 Perfect Game Home Run Derby above, Aiden Harris showed loose, easy power during batting practice with one towering blast landing over the left field bleachers at Chase Field. Harris was very loose at the plate, alternating between a toe tap and simple stride as his load before showcasing his raw power.
When it comes to his in-game performance however, Harris appears to be much more stiff at the plate, and has a tendency to make poor swing decisions. Harris also appears to be a “bucket strider” in-game, which paid off as he hit a home run at the Perfect Game Showcase, but might make him vulnerable to breaking balls on the outer-third of the plate in the future.
Standing 6’4” and 220 pounds, Harris is an imposing figure no matter where he is on the baseball field, and reports suggest that he is likely to stay at third base (at least, initially) at the next level. Harris will only be 17 on draft day, which might make him an even more appealing selection particularly for teams that follow a model approach. Aiden Harris has shown the ability to hit for impressive raw power in batting practice but needs to further develop his in-game approach in order to come close to reaching his lofty offensive ceiling. In my opinion, he would be a good upside selection for an organization that has a clear plan to overhaul his in-game approach to allow him to tap into his raw power while improving his plate discipline, which would allow him to produce offensively with some level of consistency at the next level.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) and Adam Salorio on Substack for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by Perfect Game.
Photo credits to Lansing State Journal, Perfect Game, Post and Courier, Major League Baseball.