2024 MLB Draft Prospect Analysis: College Arms (Part 1)
(11/27/23) Comprehensive analysis of three pitchers eligible to be selected in the 2024 MLB Draft: Hagen Smith, Trey Yesavage, and Fran Oschell III.
Originally published on Medium on November 27, 2023.
Welcome to the fourth installment of a series where I analyze top high school and college prospects that will be eligible to be selected in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. From now until the beginning of next season, I intend to complete a comprehensive analysis of all the top prospects eligible to be selected in next July’s draft. This article will analyze Hagen Smith, Trey Yesavage, and Fran Oschell III: three college pitchers slated to be selected in next year’s draft.
Hagen Smith (LHP — Arkansas):
Hagen Smith, a left-handed pitcher from the University of Arkansas, possesses an attractive mix of three plus pitches, a Fastball, a Slider, and a Splitter, which make him one of the top pitching prospects eligible to be drafted in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. Appearing in 18 games (11 starts) for the Razorbacks in 2023, Smith pitched 71.2 innings with a solid 35.2% Strikeout Rate, though he had a higher Walk Rate at 13.5% and allowed 0.9 HR/9.
Hagen Smith displays quite a deceptive delivery, effectively concealing the ball from view to the hitter up until his foot stride. In the start featured in the video above, Smith struggled with his Fastball command indicative of the struggles he faced last season as evident by his high Walk Rate. To his credit, Smith made an impressive adjustment and started predominantly utilizing his Slider with excellent command, generating both called strikes and swing-and-miss. It would’ve been nice to see Smith’s Splitter in use during this outing, however it is likely that he was not able to utilize this pitch due to his inability to consistently command his Fastball. While Smith clearly has the Stuff to generate swing-and-miss and strike opposing hitters out, improving the command of his Fastball will be integral to lowering his Walk Rate and raising his overall ceiling as a prospect.
Mechanically speaking, Smith’s back leg drives off the mound considerably towards the end of his delivery, creating a “jump” like motion at the point of release, potentially being the cause of his command issues and negatively impacting the repeatability of his delivery. In a recent interview with Future Star Series’s Joe Doyle, Smith describes how he has attempted to correct this “jump” in his delivery, which may result in improved command going forward.
Hagen Smith’s Fastball sits between 91–95 MPH, and has hit triple-digits this fall, making it reasonable to project that he will sit near the upper end of this range at the professional level, potentially sitting around 96 MPH. Smith’s Slider projects as a very good pitch, possessing plus movement and an evident ability to command the offering. Sitting between 82–87 MPH, the Slider has an opportunity to be an elite offering, especially if it settles towards the upper end of this velocity range. Hagen’s Splitter (described by him as a “changeup with a split grip”) is developing and has the opportunity to be a valuable weapon to getting right-handed hitters out. Reports indicate that this pitch projects to be a plus offering, and the general uniqueness of a left-handed pitcher throwing a Splitter should allow for the pitch to play up against right-handed hitters. Hagen also sparingly utilizes a Sinker and a Curveball, and the further development of these pitches will only raise his ceiling as a starting pitcher moving forward. Hagen Smith projects to be one of the first pitchers taken in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft, and has the potential to move up draft boards if he displays his velocity and command improvements next season for the Razorbacks.
Trey Yesavage (RHP — Eastern Carolina):
Trey Yesavage, a right-handed pitcher from Eastern Carolina University, displays a promising pitch arsenal that includes a Fastball, a “Cutter-Slider hybrid” (which I would classify as more of a gyro Slider), a Curveball, and a Changeup, which makes him one of the more intriguing pitching prospects eligible to be selected in the 2024 draft. Appearing in 16 games (14 starts) for the ECU Pirates in 2023, Yesavage pitched 76.0 innings with a notable 33.9% Strikeout Rate and 7.4% Walk Rate, while allowing 1.3 HR/9.
Yesavage displays an over-the-top delivery which allows him to create lots of backspin on his Fastball and utilize the pitch at the top of the strike zone to generate swing-and-miss. Mechanically speaking, Yesavage gets into his legs during his delivery and displays a repeatable delivery, making it easy to project him as a starter moving forward. Yesavage also displays an intriguing array of secondary pitches, with his Curveball being his best offering in my opinion. As shown in the outing featured in the video above, Yesavage displays good command of the Curveball and this pitch can be used to generate both called strikes and swing-and-miss. Sitting between 85–88 MPH, the “Cutter-Slider hybrid” is also a good pitch, with late breaking action, allowing for the pitch to generate a lot of swing-and-miss and weak contact against right-handed hitters. Previous reports indicate that Yesavage has difficulty locating his Changeup, and that was evident early in this outing as he hung a Changeup upstairs to a left-handed hitter. Improving the command of this pitch should be a focus for Yesavage this offseason and early in his professional career, as utilizing this pitch effectively will be integral to his success against left-handed hitters.
Trey Yesavage projects to be a starter at the professional level, with the upside to be a mid-rotation arm in the future. The pitchability he displays, as well as his wide array of pitches and repeatable delivery makes it easy to envision him in a Major League starting rotation moving forward. In the future, Yesavage needs to focus on improving the command of his Changeup, as this will help raise his ceiling against left-handed hitters. I would also like to see him tinker with splitting the “Cutter-Slider hybrid” into two different pitches, a Cutter and a Slider. Adding an additional pitch to his arsenal will not only increase his ability to pitch deeper into games but will also provide Yesavage with another weapon to retire right-handed hitters with, given he is able to develop and utilize this pitch effectively. In addition, adding a tick or two of velocity would help Yesavage’s pitches play up, and raise his projection moving forward. Trey Yesavage is one pitcher in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft class that I will be particularly keeping my eye on and is a pitcher who has the potential to move up draft boards this spring.
Fran Oschell III (RHP — Duke):
Fran Oschell III, a right-handed pitcher from Duke University, possessing a two-pitch Fastball and Curveball mix, which makes him an intriguing prospect eligible to be selected in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. Appearing exclusively in relief across 22 games for the Duke Blue Devils in 2023, Oschell pitched 39.1 innings with an impressive 41.5% Strikeout Rate and an 11.3% Walk Rate, while keeping home runs to a minimal 0.2 HR/9.
Oschell features a funky, deceptive delivery which hides the ball effectively until his point of release, giving hitters difficulty on picking up on his pitches which allows for his pitches to play up. The best pitch in Oschell’s arsenal is his Fastball which sits between 92–97 MPH with noticeable plus vertical movement, causing hitters to frequently swing-and-miss under the Fastball, indicating that the pitch can be effective when located up in the strike zone. Oschell really gets “into his legs” during his delivery, with his back knee nearly touching the ground at point of release, which I believe allows for his Fastball to be thrown at an ideal vertical approach angle for the pitch to be effective upstairs. Sitting between 78–80 MPH, Oschell also utilizes a Curveball in his arsenal as his secondary offering. As shown in the outing featured in the video above, Oschell seemingly had issues generating swing-and-miss with this pitch, which may be a troublesome sign given that this is the only secondary pitch in Oschell’s arsenal.
Given his two-pitch pitch arsenal as well as the fact that he was only used out of the bullpen over the past season, Fran Oschell III projects to be a relief pitcher at the next level. Whether or not Oschell projects as a high-leverage relief pitcher will depend on the further development of his secondary offerings. Fastball-Curveball is not a common pitch combination at the Major League level, and I am intrigued to see if a Major League organization attempts to turn his Curveball to a Slider. Oschell’s Curveball currently displays some glove-side movement, which may indicate he leans supination bias and has the ability to develop a Slider with plus horizontal movement. Adding a Slider to his pitch arsenal will allow for him to generate more swing-and-miss against right-handed hitters, raising his potential ceiling to that of a high-leverage reliever. Since becoming a starting pitcher at the Major League level appears to be an unlikely outcome for Oschell, I would not expect him to be selected in the 1st Round, but Fran Oschell III has the tools and projection to become a high-leverage reliever in the future with further adjustments to his pitch arsenal.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) and Adam Salorio on Substack for more in-depth MLB analysis. Video credits to Prospects Live.
Photo Credits to Associated Press, ECU Athletics, and Duke Athletics.