2024 MLB Draft Prospect Analysis: Chase Burns
(9/20/23) With the 2024 MLB draft on the horizon, we delve deep into the scouting report of potential #1 pick, Chase Burns.
Originally published on Medium on September 20, 2023.
Welcome to the second installment of a series where I analyze top high school and college prospects that will be eligible to be selected in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. From now until the beginning of next season, I intend to complete a comprehensive analysis of all of the top prospects eligible to be selected in next July’s Draft. This article will analyze Chase Burns, one of the top college pitchers eligible to be selected in next year’s draft.
Overview:
With an electric four-pitch mix, highlighted by a very good Fastball and Slider, Chase Burns projects to be selected within the first handful of picks in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. Transferring to Wake Forest in 2024 after pitching for Tennessee the past two seasons, Burns has produced high strikeout rates during his time pitching both in the rotation and out of the bullpen for the Volunteers.
Utilizing a four pitch mix of a Fastball, Slider, Changeup, and Curveball, Burns dominated college hitters last season, posting a 38.4% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate in 72.0 innings pitched for Tennessee last season. Burns has displayed plus velocity with all of pitches, reaching as high as 102 MPH on his Fastball and 90 MPH on his Slider during an appearance in the College World Series last season.
As shown by the images above, Burns is able to remain “on time” at the point of stride and utilizes the same arm slot at point of release with all three of the predominant pitches in his arsenal. Burns displays his athleticism with fluid lower-body mechanics coupled with a longer arm swing, making it confident to project that he can consistently reach the upper ranges of his pitch velocity (98 for the Fastball, 90 for the Slider, etc.) in the future.
Fastball:
At first glance, the Fastball is the most eye-opening pitch in Burns’s arsenal, averaging between 94–98 MPH and peaking at 102 MPH. In order to obtain a better understanding of the vertical movement on Burns’s Fastball, I would’ve liked to see more Fastballs thrown at the top of the zone during the outing featured on the above video, in order to see if Burns is able to generate swing-and-miss in this part of the zone. Instead, Burns likes to live glove-side with the pitch to right-handed hitters, generating called strikes on the outer-third and setting up his dominant Slider. The Fastball did not generate as many Whiffs as I expected given the velocity, and previous reports indicate that the pitch “did not miss many bats” during this past season. There was also a noticeable decline in usage and confidence in his Fastball as Burns got deeper into his start, which might provide some insight into why Burns had issues deep in games and was moved to the bullpen as this past season progressed.
Despite these factors, any Fastball that is thrown at the extraordinary high velocity Burns possesses will grade well with pitch modeling metrics and experience at least moderate success at the next level (it is hard to throw a “bad” Fastball at 100 MPH). I would not be surprised if the Wake Forest pitching lab makes adjustments to his Fastball shape over the offseason (such as adding a Sinker to his arsenal or maybe even altering his arm angle), in an attempt to improve the results that Burns generates with this offering.
Slider:
The Slider is not only the best pitch in Chase Burns’s pitch arsenal, but it might be the best individual pitch in the entire 2024 draft class. Topping at 90 MPH, Burns’s Slider comes with tight spin and hard velocity which makes the offering very difficult for opposing hitters to make contact with. If Burns is able to consistently reach the upper echelons of his Slider velocity, he will join only 5 other pitchers at the Major League level who average at least 90 MPH on their Slider (Jacob deGrom, Hunter Brown, Zack Wheeler, Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller), making this pitch one of the best in all of baseball based on shape alone.
As mentioned previously, Burns sets up his Slider to right-handed hitters by frequently locating his Fastball glove-side on the outer-third of the plate. Given the repetitiveness and consistency of his delivery, it is difficult for opposing hitters to identify Sliders on the outer-third, allowing Burns to generate a lot of Whiffs in this area.
Not only is Burns able to generate Whiffs with this pitch outside the zone, but he is also able to locate the pitch in the strike zone for called strikes, further increasing the efficacy of this offering. I do not have access to advanced college baseball data, but based on these factors I can imagine that the CSW of this offering ranks among the best Sliders in all of college baseball. This pitch is hands-down the best offering in Chase Burns’s current pitch arsenal, and will serve as his primary swing-and-miss offering whether he is used as a starter or reliever at the next level.
Changeup + Curveball:
Burns also flashes a Changeup with plus velocity that he primarily utilizes against left-handed hitters. Featuring a good amount of arm side run, utilizing the Changeup allows for Burns to neutralize his platoon splits against left-handed hitters by generating Whiffs against the opposite handedness. By the time the College World Series rolled around, Burns added a Curveball to his pitch arsenal. Sitting at 83 MPH, the Curveball is an offering that can both be used on two-strike counts, and I can also envision Burns being able to locate the pitch in the zone to get ahead in counts more often in the future.
Concluding Thoughts:
Burns’s electric pitch mix makes him one of the best pitching prospects in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft class. Both his Fastball and Slider easily project as plus pitches at the next level, and the platoon-neutral attributes of his Changeup along with his ability to locate his Curveball will help complete his pitch arsenal and increase his ceiling as a potential front-end starter. If Burns has difficulty executing his Changeup and Curveball and/or continues to have difficulty with his Fastball late in games, I would project Burns’s floor to be a high-leverage reliever at the Major League level, given the outstanding attributes of his Fastball and Slider. Transferring to Wake Forest this upcoming season will be a crucial step in his developmental process, and I am very intrigued to see what adjustments their renowned pitching lab will make to Burns’s pitch arsenal over the offseason. If the Wake Forest pitching lab is able to improve the results that Burns has seen on his Fastball and/or Slider over the past season, then it is definitely in the realm of possibility that Chase Burns could be the #1 overall selection in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft.
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