2024 MLB Draft Prospect Analysis: College OF (Part 1)
(10/20/23) Delving into the skills and potential of college outfielders James Tibbs III, Austin Overn, and Paxton Kling.
Originally published on Medium on October 20, 2023.
Welcome to the third installment of a series where I analyze top high school and college prospects that will be eligible to be selected in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. From now until the beginning of next season, I intend to complete a comprehensive analysis of all the top prospects eligible to be selected in next July’s draft. This article will analyze James Tibbs III, Austin Overn, and Paxton Kling: three outfielders slated to be selected in next year’s draft.
James Tibbs III (OF/1B — Florida State):
James Tibbs III offers a compelling combination of disciplined hitting and raw power, positioning him as a potential Top 100 prospect for the 2024 MLB Draft. He demonstrates impressive plate discipline against Fastballs, often refraining from swings at pitches located on the outer third, and produced a 19.7% Walk Rate during the 2023 season. However, breaking balls, especially left-handed Sliders, have proven challenging for him. Tibbs will need to improve his plate discipline against breaking balls in order to reach his full potential, as this leaves him vulnerable to chasing pitches out of the zone, resulting in more strikeouts when he progresses to the professional level.
Tibbs has shown a tendency to pull pitches, displaying good rotation which is indicative of his ability to tap into his power, as underscored by his 17 home runs hit last season. Bat control does appear to be an issue for Tibbs, as he only made contact on pitches towards the bottom of the zone in the video above. While he can drive these pitches with power, due to his ability to collapse his back leg, this might suggest a grooved swing, which could negatively impact his hit tool.
From a positional standpoint, Tibbs projects as a corner outfielder or a first baseman. The power potential he displays is in line with what’s expected from these positions, however refining his hit tool will be imperative for him to reach his full potential. If he can improve his contact ability and plate discipline (especially against LHP), it is easy to envision James Tibbs III being selected in the early rounds of the 2024 Major League Baseball draft.
Austin Overn (OF — USC)
Austin Overn is an intriguing prospect eligible to be selected in the 2024 MLB Draft. Overn’s most distinguishable trait is his plus-plus speed, making him a potential game-changer on the basepaths, turning singles into doubles and forcing infielders to rush their plays. Overn is a threat to steal every time he reaches on-base, stealing 16 bases during the 2023 season. Given this speed, it is reasonable to project him with plus range defensively, allowing him to stay in Center Field long-term. A more in-depth examination of his defensive prowess, perhaps through extended footage or live observations, would be particularly beneficial.
Diving into his swing mechanics, Overn currently possesses quite a “funky” load in his lower body, possibly hampering an effective weight transfer. This loading mechanism, combined with a toe-tap, could be the primary reason he often appears not to have total control over his body during his swing. In my opinion, this needs to be corrected moving forward as a more controlled load might allow for Overn to produce more solid contact and unlock some in-game power.
As shown by this showcase video from the summer of 2022, Overn appeared to have a more refined and controlled toe-tap, and displayed considerable pull-side power during batting practice. Granted both of these adjustments were implemented in batting practice, but it underscores the point that Overn’s funky toe tap causes him to lose body control in-game. Additionally, Overn made an adjustment to his bat angle from 2022 to 2023, transitioning from a steeper angle to a flatter one. This tweak might negatively impact his contact quality and ability to drive pitches in the bottom part of the strike zone.
Viewing footage of Austin Overn naturally evokes comparisons to Corbin Caroll as a best-case scenario for Overn’s ceiling. While Overn is a ways away from Caroll’s ability to hit for power, the blueprint for a high-ceiling speedy outfielder is evident. If Overn can streamline his load, possibly replacing the toe-tap with a simpler stride, it could unlock more consistent contact and in-game power.
Paxton Kling (OF — LSU)
Paxton Kling is a college outfielder with a blend of raw power and potential that makes him an intriguing prospect heading into next season. The 2023 college season highlighted some areas of concern, particularly his propensity to ground out and his struggle against left-handed changeups, which have led to numerous whiffs.
Kling’s physicality suggests considerable power potential, as he has the strength and rotational ability to turn on pitches effectively. An anomaly in Kling’s swing is its unorthodox nature; as he barely elevates his front foot during the load and doesn’t incorporate a stride. In theory, this swing turns Kling into a hit-over-power type of hitter which hasn’t exactly panned out. Kling’s tendency to hit ground balls and persisting strikeout issue indicates that this batting stance is holding Kling back from reaching his true potential. If he can address these issues in his swing, there’s a good chance he can better tap into his raw power in-game.
This footwork concern, paired with a high strikeout rate, raises questions about his plate discipline. To progress to the next level, Kling will need to make significant adjustments as the absence of in-game power combined with a high strikeout rate is not a recipe for success at the professional level. The idea of reinforcing a simple stride or even a leg kick might be worth exploring to help him tap into that power more consistently.
As shown by these videos from the summer of 2021, Kling previously employed a toe-tap, which he later abandoned at LSU. Revisiting this toe-tap or finding a middle ground, such as starting with an open stance and transitioning into a stride, might help Kling to tap into his raw power in-game. In the above videos, Kling did have difficulty generating solid contact, however it is difficult to assess whether this was due to mechanical issues or a grooved swing due to the small sample size.
Paxton Kling is an intriguing prospect heading into the 2024 MLB Draft and is a breakout candidate to watch for next season. His raw power, combined with his rotational abilities, offers a glimpse of a player who can be a power threat in a lineup in the future. If he is able to make effective tweaks to his swing in the offseason and showcase improved contact and plate discipline, he could emerge as a coveted power-hitting corner outfielder in next year’s draft.
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