2024 MLB Draft Prospect Analysis: College Arms (Part 2)
(12/27/23) Comprehensive analysis of three pitchers eligible to be selected in the 2024 MLB Draft: Jonathan Santucci, Carter Holton, and Mason Molina.
Originally published on Medium on December 27, 2023.
Welcome to the fifth installment of a series where I analyze top high school and college prospects that will be eligible to be selected in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. From now until the beginning of next season, I intend to complete a comprehensive analysis of all the top prospects eligible to be selected in next July’s draft. This article will analyze Jonathan Santucci, Carter Holton, and Mason Molina: three college pitchers slated to be selected in next year’s draft.
Jonathan Santucci (LHP — Duke):
Jonathan Santucci, a left-handed pitcher from Duke University, possesses a dominant two-pitch mix of a Fastball and Slider, which makes him one of the more intriguing pitchers available to be selected in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. Starting 7 games for the Blue Devils in 2023, Smith pitched 29.1 innings with an impressive 39.1% Strikeout Rate, although he had a higher Walk Rate at 12.5% and allowed 1.24 HR/9 before suffering an Olecranon fracture at the end of March.
As shown by the video above, Jonathan Santucci displays an exceptional Fastball, generating numerous Whiffs, and he can utilize the pitch effectively for both swing-and-miss at the top of the zone and called strikes at the bottom of the zone. The Fastball is truly the best pitch in Santucci’s arsenal, and serves as an excellent foundation for him to develop the rest of his arsenal around. Using pitch metrics to back up this observation, Santucci was able to throw a Fastball at 95.6 MPH with 20.1 inches of induced vertical break and 10.7 inches of horizontal movement at an outing this past fall. While this is an extremely small sample size of *one* pitch, if Santucci’s Fastball is able to average anywhere near these figures, the pitch will be one of the best Four Seamers in professional baseball.
Santucci’s Slider is also a plus offering and is an excellent compliment to his Fastball. Sitting 80–84 with the offering, the Slider effectively tunnels with the Fastball, making it difficult for hitters to pick up the pitch, generating plenty of swing-and-miss. Santucci displays a repeatable delivery with a long arm swing, limiting the amount of deception he creates; however I would argue that he does not need to create much deception due to the high quality of his stuff.
As shown by the video above, Santucci had two excellent at-bats against Nick Kurtz during a game against Wake Forest last season. Kurtz displayed excellent plate discipline, being able to lay off Santucci’s excellent Slider, but Santucci retired him on a called strike Fastball on the outer-third in his first at-bat, and on a swing-and-miss on an upstairs Fastball in his second at-bat. Seeing Santucci being able to strikeout one of the best hitters in college baseball twice while utilizing his best pitch is generally impressive, and provides some favorite projectability into how his stuff will play against professional competition.
Santucci does run into some command issues as he gets deeper into outings, as he loses some ability to execute his Fastball and hitters start laying off his Slider. I would like to see if Santucci adds a Curveball and/or Changeup to his pitch arsenal in the future, as the presence of these pitches at just near-averages shapes would increase the overall performance of his arsenal. Santucci is still listed as a two-way player, and I am intrigued to see if he will devote more time to developing these secondary pitches once he solely focuses on pitching.
I think that MacKenzie Gore of the Washington Nationals is a fair comparison of what Jonathan Santucci’s ceiling might look like, especially if he adds a Changeup and/or Curveball to his arsenal. Aside from being left-handed, both pitchers have plus Fastballs that allow their secondaries to play up, and both pitchers utilize their Four Seamer more than 50% of the time. Given that he is able to stay healthy and have another productive season for the Duke Blue Devils in 2024, I would not be surprised to see Jonathan Santucci climb up draft boards this Spring and I would expect him to be selected at the back end of the 2024 MLB Draft.
Carter Holton (LHP — Vanderbilt):
Carter Holton, a left-handed pitcher from Vanderbilt University, possesses an intriguing three-pitch mix of a Fastball, Slider, and Curveball, which makes him one of the more intriguing pitchers available to be selected in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. Starting 11 games for the Commadores in 2023, Holton pitched 50.1 innings with a 25% Strikeout Rate, 10.9% Walk Rate, and a 0.7 HR/9.
As shown by the video above, Carter Holton displays a deceptive delivery, with an ability to effectively hide the baseball from the opposing hitter up until point of release. I thought his unique leg kick stood out upon watching the above video for the first time, with his front leg displaying a distinctive “kicking” motion just before the point of stride, which most likely positively contributes to the deceptive abilities of Holton’s pitching motion. Holton displays an excellent Fastball, with its ability to generate swing-and-miss at the top of the strike zone likely due to a combination of plus vertical movement and his ability to release the pitch at a flat approach angle (due to his height and release point). Holton appears to have a good Slider, as he is able to effectively tunnel the pitch with his Fastball, generating swing-and-miss against left handed hitters. Holton also possesses a Curveball which can be used to generate both called strikes and swing-and-miss.
As shown by this older video from 2022, Holton’s Fastball also possesses some arm-side run, adding to the overall effectiveness of the offering. This view from directly behind home plate also offers a better view at Holton’s deceptive delivery, as well as his ability to effectively tunnel his Slider and limit the amount of “jump” on his Curveball.
I am intrigued to see what Carter Holton’s splits are versus right handed and left handed hitters, as he appears to fare much better against left handed hitters during the limited sample size in which I’ve seen him pitch. While, yes, I would expect him to perform slightly better against left handed hitters overall, the difference in performance against his Slider among the different handednesses raises questions regarding if he has an out pitch against right handed hitters. Developing an extra pitch, such as a Changeup, would help to mitigate these concerns, but without a reliable secondary pitch that can generate swing-and-miss to right handed hitters, it is easier to project Holton as a reliever at the Major League level.
Mason Molina (LHP — Arkansas):
Mason Molina, a left-handed pitcher from the University of Arkansas, possesses a four-pitch mix of a Fastball, Slider, Curveball, and Changeup, which makes him one of the more polished pitchers available to be selected in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft. Starting 16 games for the Texas Tech Red Raiders in 2023 before entering the transfer portal, Molina pitched 83.1 innings with an impressive 30.2% Strikeout Rate against a 9.9% Walk Rate and a 1.08 HR/9.
As shown by the video above, Mason Molina displays quite a repeatable delivery, making it easier to project his as a starting pitcher moving forward. Displaying a long arm swing which makes the ball visible to the hitter for nearly the entire duration of his delivery, I would consider Molina to be a pitcher with very little deception. Molina possesses a four-pitch mix of a Four Seamer, Slider, Curveball, and Changeup which is reminiscent of many starting pitchers in Major League Baseball today. Molina is able to tunnel his Slider and Curveball effectively with his Fastball, allowing for him to effectively generate swing-and-miss with both secondary pitches. Reports indicate that Molina’s Fastball has good “hop”, but I did not see many indications of this during the outing featured in the video above. Molina appears to execute all of his pitches well, displaying good pitchability, and this ability to command all of his pitches was likely a main contributor to his 30.2% Strikeout Rate at Texas Tech last season.
The main question mark I have with Mason Molina’s velocity is his lack of velocity. Currently sitting at 85–90 MPH with his Four Seamer, this level of velocity is simply not going to cut it at the Major League level regardless of how good Molina’s command is. Perhaps Molina’s transition from the Big 12 to the SEC and the effect it will have on his Strikeout Rate will provide some insight into how his lack of plus velocity will translate to the next level but there are not many Four Seamers that sit below 90 MPH that are successful at the Major League level in this era. Given his plus command and pitchability, there is reason to believe that Molina’s ceiling can be higher than what it currently is, especially if he is drafted by an organization that is good at developing velocity, but at the present moment I believe Molina’s ceiling is as a #5 or spot starter at the professional level.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) and Adam Salorio on Substack for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by Baseball-Reference. Video credits to Prospects Live.
Photo credits to Duke Athletics, Opendorse, and Lubbock Avalanche-Journal.