Breaking Down the Noah Syndergaard and Zach Eflin Signings
(12/22/22) Analyzing two of the most intriguing free agent signings so far this offseason.
Originally published on Medium on December 22, 2022.
In my opinion, two of the most intriguing free agent signings so far this offseason have been Noah Syndergaard signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Zach Eflin signing with the Tampa Bay Rays. Playing for the 2022 National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies last season is not the only thing these two pitchers have in common, as both pitchers have adjustments they can make to their existing pitch arsenals in order to improve the production they can provide to their new organizations next season. This article will break down both Noah Syndergaard and Zach Eflin’s pitch arsenals, and attempt to identify the adjustments both pitchers can make to improve their pitch arsenals with their new clubs next season.
Noah Syndergaard — Los Angeles Dodgers (1 year/$13M):
One of the more intriguing free agent signings so far this offseason in my opinion was the signing of Noah Syndergaard by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Splitting last season between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies, Syndergaard pitched 134.2 innings over 24 starts, producing a 6.35 K/9, 2.07 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, and a 4.39 SIERA. Syndergaard currently possesses a five pitch mix of a Sinker, Slider, Changeup, Four-Seam Fastball, and Curveball, and I predict that the Dodgers will make some adjustments to his pitch arsenal next season.
Syndergaard had success with his Sinker this past season, producing a -12 Run Value which ranked as the 5th best Sinker among eligible pitchers. Syndergaard also had good results with his Curveball last season, which he started increasing its usage after being traded to the Phillies and I believe he will continue this increased utilization of the Curveball (or a variation of it) next season. Syndergard’s decline in production with his Four-Seam Fastball can probably be attributed to the decline in velocity he has experienced since undergoing Tommy John surgery prior to the 2020 season. In his first full season back from injury, Syndergaard experienced a 3.5 MPH drop in velocity on his Four-Seam Fastball (97.8 to 94.1) and has also experienced similar decreases among the remaining pitches in his arsenal.
Taking a look at the movement profile chart, it can be easy to identify the adjustments Syndergaard needs to make to his pitch arsenal in order to return the value the Dodgers have invested in him for next season. It appears that Syndergaard’s Changeup and Sinker have nearly identical movement profiles, making his Changeup essentially a slower, less effective version of his Sinker. I can envision the Dodgers either scaling back the usage of his Changeup, or eliminating the pitch from his pitch arsenal entirely. Syndergaard’s Slider and Curveball also have similar movement profiles, however his Curveball (which generates more horizontal movement) is more effective than his Slider by measures of Run Value, Whiff%, xwOBA, and Hard Hit%. I can envision the Dodgers either encouraging Syndergaard to drop his Slider and solely utilize his Curveball as his primary breaking ball, or replace both pitches with a Sweeper that can generate even more horizontal movement and have potentially better results than his existing Curveball. If Syndergaard elects not to add a Sweeper to his pitch arsenal, then I would recommend that Syndergaard add a Cutter to replace his Four-Seam Fastball in order to generate arm-side movement and create more differentiation from his Sinker.
In conclusion, I believe that Syndergaard would be best-served becoming a Sinker-Slider type of pitcher, and I believe that the Dodgers will pursue that course of action with Syndergaard next season. This situation reminds me of the adjustments Los Angeles made with Andrew Heaney last season, adding a Slider to his arsenal which resulted in a significant increase to his overall production, particularly his strikeout rate.
Zach Eflin — Tampa Bay Rays (3 years/$40M — $13.3M AAV):
One of the more surprising free agent acquisitions of the offseason was the signing of Zach Eflin by the Tampa Bay Rays. Spending last season with the Philadelphia Phillies, Eflin pitched 75.2 innings over 20 appearances (13 starts), producing a 7.73 K/9, 1.78 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, and a 3.78 SIERA. Eflin currently possesses a six pitch mix of a Sinker, Curveball, Four-Seam Fastball, Cutter, Changeup, and Slider.
Upon first seeing the news that Zach Eflin was signing with the Tampa Bay Rays, my initial reaction was that Tampa Bay must have a plan to better utilize Eflin’s pitch arsenal given their outstanding ability to develop pitchers, combined with the rarity of them giving out a multi-year contract to a free agent. Looking at the Run Value table and movement profile chart, it appears that Eflin can improve upon his pitch distribution, as well as make adjustments to his arsenal due to the similarities that exist between some of his pitches.
Last season, Eflin threw his Sinker 39.9% of the time (the most out of any pitch in his arsenal) despite the pitch being one of his worst performing offerings with a Run Value of 1 and an opponent xwOBA of .310. Eflin threw his Cutter 14.8% of the time, and similar to his Sinker this pitch also did not perform well, with a Run Value of 6 and an opponent xwOBA of .402 against a 19.0% Whiff rate. Eflin’s Cutter has also been hit hard by opponents, producing a Hard-Hit rate of 44.4% last season.
Despite only being thrown 20.1% of the time last season, the Curveball is one of the best pitches in Zach Eflin’s pitch arsenal, with a Whiff rate of 43.5% against an opponent xwOBA of .186. In addition, Eflin’s Curveball was excellent at minimizing hard contact, producing an excellent Hard-Hit rate of 13.8% last season. I would recommend Eflin utilize this pitch more next season, potentially as much as 30% of time, as this is one of the best pitches in his arsenal and increasing its usage will most likely improve Eflin’s production as a whole.
Another under-utilized pitch in Zach Eflin’s pitch arsenal is his Four-Seam Fastball, which was only thrown 15.5% of the time last season. With a Run Value of -4, the pitch was the best in Eflin’s arsenal by measure of Run Value, and also produced a Whiff rate of 23.4% against an opponent xwOBA of .259. As shown by the heat maps, Eflin has had success throwing this pitch in the upper part of the strike zone and this is consistent with his Vertical Approach Angle of -4.7 degrees, which indicates that he will have at least average results when utilizing the pitch in this manner. Given these findings, I would recommend that Eflin increase his usage of this pitch to at least 30%, as this is one of the best pitches in his entire arsenal and, similar to his Curveball, increasing its usage will most likely improve Eflin’s production as a whole.
By increasing the combined usage of his Four-Seam Fastball and Curveball to approximately 60%, I would expect Eflin to utilize his Sinker and Cutter less often next season. Not only are these pitches the worst performing pitches in his arsenal, but as shown by the movement profile chart, eliminating these pitches would add more differentiation between the remaining four pitches in Eflin’s arsenal.
With the assumption that each 1.0 WAR is worth $8M and that a player will regress 0.5 WAR each season beginning at age 30, the Rays will need to increase Eflin’s projected WAR by 2.4 over the course of his contract in order to return the $13.3M AAV investment the organization has placed in him. An interesting caveat of this deal is that Eflin’s contract is back-loaded, as he is to earn $11M in 2023–24 and $18M in 2025. Could the Rays be planning on keeping him for two years and trading him after the 2024 season? If this is the case, the Rays would only need to improve his projected WAR by 0.5 over the course of the first two seasons in order to have a positive return on their investment, then they can acquire a prospect or two after 2024 as the result of a potential trade. As this is, in my opinion, one of the most intriguing offseason acquisitions of the winter, analyzing how the Tampa Bay Rays plan to utilize and improve the pitch arsenal of Zach Eflin will be one development I’ll be particularly focused on this upcoming season.
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