Breaking Down the Washington Nationals Return for Juan Soto
(8/3/22) The Washington Nationals recieved a historic haul of top prospects in exchange for franchise cornerstone Juan Soto.
Originally published on Medium on August 3, 2022.
Simply put, Tuesday’s trade of Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Washington Nationals to the San Diego Padres was one of the biggest midseason trades in Major League Baseball history. Faced with the possibility of losing Juan Soto in free agency after he declined a record-setting extension offer, the Washington Nationals decided to trade one of the greatest young players of all-time at what they hope to be the peak of his trade value. Reviews of the trade have been mixed, with some critics arguing the Nationals should’ve kept Soto and continue negotiating a contract extension, while other analysts believe that the Nationals were able to sufficiently restock their farm system with a historic haul of prospects coming over from San Diego. In this article, I will analyze how each prospect has performed so far in their major league and minor league careers, in order to establish a better understanding of what the Washington Nationals received in exchange for a franchise legend in Juan Soto.
Luke Voit (1B):
The only established Major League player heading to Washington in the trade is first baseman Luke Voit. Included in the trade as a result of Eric Hosmer invoking his no-trade clause, Voit projects to be the starting first baseman for the Nationals for at least the remainder of the season. Currently batting .225/.317/.416 (109 wRC+) with 13 home runs, Voit is a player who can be counted on to provide 20 home runs over a full season’s worth of at-bats. Arbitration eligible through the 2024 season, I expect Washington to entertain trade offers for Voit in the offseason and obtain more prospects to replenish the farm system.
C.J. Abrams (SS):
Drafted 6th overall in the 2019 MLB draft by the San Diego Padres, C.J. Abrams entered the 2022 season as San Diego’s #1 prospect according to MLB.com’s Prospect Pipeline. Filling in for an injured Fernando Tatís Jr., Abrams has gotten his first taste of Major League Baseball this season, batting .232/.285/.320 (75 wRC+) with 2 home runs in 46 games with San Diego this season. In my opinion, C.J. Abrams has been rushed to the Major Leagues by the Padres which has stunted his development so far, and might have a negative impact on his long-term potential. Part of this was out of necessity, due to the injury to Tatís, and also due to the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season. In addition, Abrams suffered from a fractured left tibia and sprained MCL in 2021, ending his season in early July. As a result, Abrams began his MLB career with only 74 Minor League games and 339 Minor League plate appearances under his belt. Abrams’s major weakness that he needs to improve upon in order to become an impact player at the MLB level is his plate discipline. Abrams has a Walk rate of 2.9% at the MLB level, and 5.3% at AAA so far this season. Both are well below league average and will need to improve if Washington expects Abrams to be in their starting lineup long-term.
During the past two seasons in the Minor Leagues, Abrams has been consistent with his LD/GB/FB distribution, hitting line drives ~24%, ground balls ~42%, and fly balls ~33%. These high line drive rates have allowed for Abrams to maintain a consistently high BABIP, averaging around .350. Upon his promotion to the Major Leagues, a lot of the line drives Abrams had been hitting have been replaced by ground balls, as shown by the graph below.
This has resulted in much weaker contact, and a lower BABIP for Abrams so far this season. Since Abrams doesn’t project to provide much power, this is another weakness that needs to be improved upon in order for C.J Abrams to become a productive member of the Washington Nationals starting lineup.
Robert Hassell III (OF):
Drafted 8th overall in the 2020 MLB draft by the San Diego Padres, Robert Hassell III entered the 2022 season as San Diego’s #3 prospect according to MLB.com’s Prospect Pipeline. This season in High-A ball, Hassell has been batting .299/.379/.467 (134 wRC+) with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 75 games played. Hassell is my second-favorite player that was included in this trade package, and I believe that his combination of on-base ability and speed will allow him to be a starting outfielder for the Washington Nationals for many years to come. With a walk rate of 11.0% and strikeout rate of 19.1%, Hassell appears to have above-average plate discipline which will translate well to the Major Leagues. Currently hitting home runs at a rate of 2.9%, I believe that with some added strength, Hassell will be able to increase his power abilities to above league-average moving forward.
One aspect of Hassell’s offensive approach that will need to improve is his ability to put the ball in the air more. While his current fly ball rate of 31.5% is good in terms of generating home runs, his ground ball rate of 53.4% is a bit high for my personal liking, and indicates that his BABIP of .352 is likely to regress to the mean before the end of the season. If Hassell can reduce his ground ball rate to 47%, therefore increasing his line drive rate to 20%, then he will be able to provide more consistent contact and power as a member of the Nationals lineup. Overall, I am a believer in Robert Hassell’s long-term potential and believe he will be a starting outfielder for the Washington Nationals within a couple years.
James Wood (OF):
Drafted 62nd overall in the 2021 MLB draft by the San Diego Padres, James Wood entered the 2022 season as San Diego’s #5 prospect according to MLB.com’s Prospect Pipeline. This season in A ball, Wood has been batting .337/.453/.601 (171 wRC+) with 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 50 games played. James Wood is my favorite player that the Washington Nationals have acquired in this deal. In his short time as a professional, Wood has displayed good plate discipline, an ability to hit for power, and speed that can make James Wood a star at the Major League level. Standing 6’7”, 240 pounds, Wood has the potential to be a dominating force in the Nationals lineup for years to come.
A promising development that has come from James Wood this season is that he has cut his strikeout rate in half from last season. In 2021, Wood struck out in 31.7% of plate appearances; this season, he has struck out in only 17.8% of plate appearances. Wood has impressively been able to cut down on his strikeouts this season, while also increasing his walk rate (12.9% to 15.7%) and home run rate (3.0% to 4.2%). If James Wood is able to maintain this level of plate discipline and improve his power moving forward, then he has star potential when he arrives in the big leagues. An outfield of James Wood, Robert Hassell III, and recently drafted Elijah Green has the potential to be an integral piece to the core of the next championship-contending Washington Nationals team.
MacKenzie Gore (LHP):
Drafted 3rd overall in the 2017 MLB draft by the San Diego Padres, MacKenzie Gore entered the 2022 season as San Diego’s #4 prospect according to MLB.com’s Prospect Pipeline. Making his Major League debut this season, Gore has struck out 23.3% and walked 12.0% of batters he’s faced in 70 innings pitched. A quick look at Gore’s Baseball Savant page displays the following percentile rankings.
Since the beginning of his career in the Padres career, Gore has frequently been mentioned in trade rumors and subsequently has frequently been held onto by the Padres due to his long standing potential as a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. However, since the canceled MiLB season of 2020, Gore has struggled with his command which has hampered his long-term outlook. As shown by the presence of a lot of blue in his Statcast percentile rankings, Gore has struggled quite a bit since being promoted this season. While Gore has been achieving above-average results on his Fastball, he has not had much success with any of his breaking pitches. In my opinion, an overhaul of his pitch arsenal via pitch design will be needed to be conducted in the offseason in order for Gore to reach his potential, and I intend to create a subsequent article detailing what changes I believe he should make. While MacKenzie Gore has struggled over the past two seasons, I believe that with some changes and improvements to his arsenal, he can be an important part of a future Washington Nationals rotation.
Jarlin Susana (RHP):
Signed as an international free agent earlier this year by the San Diego Padres, Jarlin Susana entered the 2022 season as San Diego’s #14 prospect according to MLB.com’s Prospect Pipeline. This season in Rookie ball, Susana has struck out 39.6% and walked 9.9% of batters he has faced in 29.1 innings pitched. Jarlin Susana is the most intriguing prospect in this entire trade due to his dominance in Rookie ball this season, as well as his intangibles such as his Fastball which has topped 100 MPH.
Being able to throw for high velocity is less impressive than it was 10 years ago, and it would be more helpful to project his potential based off of the shape of his Fastball. I simply do not have access to this data. However, I would have to imagine that given the high amount of strikeouts he has produced so far this season, his Fastball will be a dominant pitch going forward. Given the lack of metrics available on Susana, I will let this YouTube scouting video showcase his pitch arsenal.
Given the dominance of his Fastball, I would project Garcia to be a potential high-leverage reliever at a minimum, with a role in the starting rotation possible if he is able to sustain his dominance and further develop his secondary pitches.
Conclusion:
As mentioned earlier, public reaction to the Nationals return for Juan Soto and Josh Bell can be best described as mixed. Some critics argue that the Nationals should’ve kept Soto and continue negotiating a contract extension, while other analysts believe that the Nationals were able to sufficiently restock their farm system with a historic haul of prospects coming over from San Diego. I belong in the latter camp, as after evaluating each prospect the Nationals received from the Padres, I believe the Nats have acquired some solid building blocks for their next championship team. Robert Hassell III and James Wood are both solid outfield prospects who display above-average speed and have potential to hit for power, MacKenzie Gore and C.J. Abrams are players who already have big league experience with room to grow, and Jarlin Garcia is a “wild card” who can become an integral piece of a future Nationals pitching staff. Trading Juan Soto at such a young age is not an easy decision for an organization to make, however I believe that this trade package was the best group of prospects that the Nationals were able to receive for Soto and has the potential to be the building blocks on which the next contending Washington Nationals team will be constructed on.
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