Welcome to the first installment of a series where I take a closer look into the profiles of some notable high school and college prospects who are eligible to be selected in the 2025 Major League Baseball season. In addition to providing periodic updates to my draft board, I will also be providing comprehensive analysis of prospects eligible to be selected for the draft that I find particularly interesting and/or notable as part of my expanded draft coverage this season. This article will analyze Seth Hernandez, a right-handed pitcher from Corona High School in California, who will most likely be the first prep pitcher selected in next year’s draft.
Overview:
Before taking a deeper look into Hernandez’s profile, let’s take a look at the report I wrote about Hernandez when I ranked him as the 3rd best prospect in the 2025 class in my article, 2025 MLB Draft: Top 10 Board.
One of the most promising pitching prospects in the 2025 draft class is Seth Hernandez from Corona High School in California. With an impressive fastball-slider combination and a projectable frame, Hernandez has the potential to be a top draft pick and the upside to become a frontline starter at the next level.
Hernandez’s arsenal is headlined by a plus fastball that sits 96-99 MPH and has touched 100 MPH. With a projectable frame and room to add more strength, there’s potential for Hernandez to consistently hit triple digits by draft day. His slider, also grading as plus, complements the fastball well with its bullet/gyro shape and projects to be another plus offering. Hernandez also possesses a good changeup, a trait that is less common to find in high school pitchers.
Hernandez displays a repeatable delivery which bodes well for his projection as a starting pitcher at the next level. As mentioned earlier, Hernandez still has room to add more strength to his frame and the added velocity will only help the performance of his already outstanding arsenal. Hernandez’s athleticism also stands out, as he has played OF, 3B, and 1B, with some analysts considering him to be a legitimate offensive prospect as well (albeit with a much lower ceiling than his potential as a starting pitcher). Currently, Hernandez’s command lags behind his stuff, however, I am confident that his command ability will improve with more repetitions and experience on the mound, particularly once he focuses on solely pitching.
While high school right-handed pitchers can be a volatile demographic at the top of the draft due to potential injury risks and a long developmental timeline, Hernandez’s combination of present stuff and future projection makes him arguably my favorite prospect in this draft class (my first detailed prospect analysis of the draft class will be of Hernandez). With continued development, Hernandez has the potential to become the best pitcher out of this draft class.
Video Analysis:
For my video analysis of Seth Hernandez, I will be analyzing video from his recent outing at the 2024 Perfect Game All-American Classic, filmed by The Prospect Pipeline. Alongside the videos that The Prospect Pipeline posted at the All-American Classic, they posted the pitch data (velocity, movement, and pitch type) of each pitch thrown during the Classic, which will be utilized later in this analysis, allowing us to gain a deeper insight into the quality of Hernandez’s arsenal.
Hernandez pitched a full inning at the All-American Classic, throwing 23 pitches and striking out two. Hernandez primarily utilized his fastball and slider, only utilizing his curveball once and only flashing his changeup during warmups. Hernandez’s slider was effective at generating both called strikes and whiffs, with a 66.7% CSW in a very small sample size, while the fastball was able to generate a swing-and-miss when located up-and-away. Hernandez only utilized his changeup once, the last pitch of the outing, which generated a called strike and a backward K.
Hernandez displays a delivery that is under control and repeatable, which bodes well for his projection as a starter at the next level. Hernandez also displays plus extension and fluid motions when he is on the mound, which is reflective of his plus athleticism which I described in detail in my initial evaluation of him.
As shown by the images above, Hernandez is able to remain “on time” at the point of stride and utilizes the same arm slot at point of release with both his fastball and slider. While Hernandez is on time with his delivery, with his throwing arm vertical at foot plant, he doesn’t “hide the ball” behind his body well during his delivery, minimizing his ability to generate mechanic-based deception to the hitter. While his relatively straightforward arsenal of fastball-slider minimizes his ability to generate arsenal-based deception to the hitter, the plus quality of Hernandez’s “stuff” allows him to overpower opposing hitters and is indicative of his ability to generate strikeouts. The physical projectability that he displays also provides optimism that the quality of his “stuff” will increase in the future, raising his overall ceiling.
Pitch Data:
As mentioned earlier, The Prospect Pipeline attached the pitch data of every pitch thrown by Hernandez to his video from the All-American Classic. There are a few disclaimers to note before diving into Hernandez’s pitch data from this outing. First, it is only a 23-pitch sample, and while “stuff” metrics are known to stabilize very quickly, it is likely that Hernandez was pitching at “max effort” which likely added a tick a velocity to all of his pitches. Second, I am not sure which type of baseball is used at Perfect Game events, but it is known that the high school baseball (in a similar manner to the college baseball) is known to elevate induced vertical break values. This should be kept in mind when evaluating the movement characteristics of the pitches in Hernandez’s arsenal, particularly his four-seam fastball. Third, I believe that what Perfect Game classified as a “sinker” during this outing is simply a misclassification of his four-seam fastball due to the similar movement profiles of the two pitches (perhaps spin data indicates that these are two separate pitches, but this data is not publicly available for this event and reports indicate that Hernandez utilizes a four-seam fastball). I will be analyzing Hernandez’s pitch data as displayed in the aforementioned video, but these adjustments should be kept in mind when interpreting the following analysis.
As shown by the plot and table above, Hernandez utilized three pitches in this outing: a four-seam fastball, a slider, and a curveball. While not utilized in this outing, Hernandez also has a changeup that has been widely considered to be a plus pitch by draft analysts. Hernandez’s fastball averaged 96.0 MPH, topping out at 98.2 MPH, with a good amount of induced vertical break (16.8 inches) and plus arm-side run (12.8 inches of horizontal movement) for a four-seam fastball. Hernandez’s slider is more of a gyro shape, with 4.5 inches of horizontal movement, and the pitch nearly reaches the 85 MPH benchmark for being considered an average slider at the Major League level, averaging 84.3 MPH and topping out at 85.4 MPH in this outing. Hernandez only utilized his curveball once, his last pitch of the outing, with the pitch displaying two-plane movement at 80.2 MPH. While one pitch is an incredibly small sample size to draw significant conclusions from, it is easy to dream on this pitch becoming an offering that can be used to generate both called strikes and swing-and-miss.
Using my aStuff+ model, Hernandez’s two primary pitches (four-seam fastball and slider) currently grade as average to near-average pitches at the Major League level, a certainly impressive attribute for a high-school pitcher. The key for Hernandez to reach his potential as a top-of-the-rotation starter at the Major League level, however, will be to continue to add velocity to both his four-seam fastball and his slider.
The blobs located on the left-hand side display the current shapes of the two primary pitches in Hernandez’s arsenal. Hernandez’s four-seam fastball lives in an area that would likely grade the pitch as a 100 to 105 aStuff+, while his slider would likely grade in an area around 90-100 aStuff+. The slider blob illustrates the importance of either throwing a slider at least 85 MPH or having greater than 10 inches of horizontal movement in order for the offering to grade as above-average, and as a pitcher that utilizes a gyro slider, adding velocity to the offering will be imperative for Hernandez to reach his potential at the next level.
The blobs on the right-hand side display the projected shapes of the two primary pitches in Hernadez’s arsenal if he were to add a tick or two of velocity on each offering. With added velocity, Hernandez’s four-seam fastball would move further away from the “dead zone” and would firmly grade as a plus offering. Adding a tick of velocity would put Hernandez’s slider over the 85 MPH benchmark and turn this pitch into a solid average to above-average offering.
Hernandez’s four-seam fastball is an excellent example of why I believe that the shape and quality of a pitcher’s four-seam fastball serves as the “foundation” for their arsenal. One reason is that the shape of a pitcher’s four-seam fastball serves as an indicator of the other pitches that a pitcher can add to their arsenal. Given the shape of Hernandez’s four-seam fastball (good ride, and above-average run), I believe that he would be a good candidate to add a cutter in the future, and it appears on the surface that he would be capable of adding a sweeper to his arsenal (if necessary) in the future. Most relievers at the Major League level possess a four-seam fastball with plus shape, and already having a plus four-seamer in his arsenal provides Hernandez with a solid floor as a reliever should his development process unfold in such a manner.
As mentioned earlier, Hernandez’s frame indicates that he has room to add a bit more strength in the future and I am also bullish on his ability to add velocity given his displayed athleticism and the fact that he will focus solely on pitching in the future. Taking a look at his short-form movement plot, I am intrigued by the idea of him adding a cutter to his arsenal in the future, which would provide him with an additional offering to utilize against left-handed hitters. Overall, Hernandez possesses impressive “stuff” for a high-school pitcher, and this quality pitch arsenal, alongside his projectability, are primary reasons why he will likely be the first prep pitcher taken in the 2025 Major League Baseball Draft.
Concluding Thoughts:
Seth Hernandez is arguably my “favorite” player in the upcoming draft class, and it is very likely that he will be selected within the top ten picks of the 2025 Major League Baseball Draft. While there are a lot of attributes to like about Hernandez, there are also a multitude of factors that make right-handed high school pitchers are particularly volatile class of players, especially when selected in the first round of the Draft. A longer developmental timeline, the inherent injury risk that is involved with pitching at the professional level, along with questions regarding the quality of opposing hitters at the high school level all give organizations pause before utilizing significant draft capital to select a high school pitcher in the first round. To better understand the risks and rewards of selecting a prep arm this early, I analyzed all high school right-handed pitchers who were selected in the first round of the Major League Baseball Draft since 2017.
As shown by the table above, there has been a mixed bag of results among high school right-handed pitchers selected in the first round over the past eight drafts. Hunter Greene, Shane Baz, Grayson Rodriguez, and Jackson Jobe each represent the upside of selecting a high school right-handed pitcher in the first round, while Carter Stewart, Mason Denaburg, and Daniel Espino serve as cautionary tales regarding the risks of taking a prep arm this early. It does appear that there is a trend of right-handed high school arms signing under-slot bonuses in the first round, with only one high school right-handed pitcher, Mick Abel, signing an over-slot bonus since 2018.
What does this analysis mean for Hernandez? It does indicate that it can not be expected for Hernandez to reach the Major League level until 2029 at the earliest, as this analysis indicates that it typically takes a high school right-handed pitcher 4-6 years until they reach the Major League level. This long developmental timeline indicates that there is an increased risk for injury that can happen at the Minor League level (ex. Mason Denaburg and Daniel Espino) which can prevent Hernandez from reaching his potential. However, pitching is inherently “risky” as it pertains to injury, and there’s always a likelihood that a prospect does not obtain even their 50th percentile outcome, so I believe this is simply an acknowledgment of the risks that are present in Hernandez’s profile, rather than a reason to move him down draft boards significantly and/or suppress excitement about his top of the rotation potential.
In conclusion, I believe that Hernandez’s combination of present-day stuff and projectability make him one of the most intriguing prospects eligible to be selected in the 2025 Major League Baseball Draft, and it is very likely that he will be selected at the top of the first round in next year’s draft.
Thanks for reading!
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X and Adam Salorio on Substack for more in-depth MLB analysis. Photo credits to Nick Koza. Video credits to The Prospect Pipeline.