Draft Prospect Analysis: Chase Dollander
(12/6/22) Chase Dollander has the potential to be one of the best college pitching prospects in recent memory.
Originally published on Medium on December 6, 2022.
Welcome to the second article in a series where I will be analyzing some of the top prospects slated to be drafted in the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft. This article will focus on Chase Dollander, a right-handed pitcher from the University of Tennessee, who is projected to be one of the first selections of next June’s draft.
Statistical Analysis:
Since the conclusion of the college baseball season, Dollander has garnered comparisons to some of the greatest college pitching prospects in recent memory, such as Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, and Trevor Bauer. Possessing a four pitch mix consisting of a Fastball, Curveball, Slider, and Changeup, Chase Dollander dominated college hitters this past season, posting a 35.3% strikeout rate against a 4.2% walk rate and 2.3% home run rate in 79.0 innings pitched for the Tennessee Volunteers.
Dollander possesses plus velocity on his Fastball, Slider, and Changeup, along with average velocity on his Curveball. Sitting 94–98 mph with his Fastball, Dollander has stated in interviews that he intends to reach 100 mph with the offering. Given his physical build and athleticism, there is every reason to believe that he will attain this goal to gain velocity in the near future. Already exhibiting plus velocity with his Slider at 85–89 mph, Dollander will inevitable receive lofty comparisons to Jacob deGrom if he is able to add 2–3 mph of velocity to this pitch, as deGrom’s Slider averages 92.6 mph and is among the best pitches in Major League Baseball.
Video:
For the video analysis of Chase Dollander, I have primarily used the scouting video taken on May 13th, 2022 by Prospects Live. In this start against Georgia, Dollander threw 6.0 innings, allowing only 3 hits and 1 earned run on 77 pitches, with 6 strikeouts and no walks.
Video Analysis:
Taking a look at Dollander pitch in-game, it is easy to see why analysts and scouts believe that he is one of the best pitching prospects in recent memory, and will be selected at the top of next year’s Draft. Dollander is able to locate all of his pitches in the strike zone, and exhibits excellent pitch execution in throwing strikes. Dollander utilizes a very simple wind-up from the naked eye, and is able to get into his legs and remain “on time” at point of stride while throwing all of his pitches.
As shown by the images above, Dollander is able to remain “on time” at the point of stride and utilizes the same arm slot at point of release on all three pitches. His Changeup is not present in the above graphic, as I was not able to definitively identify any of the pitches he threw during this game as Changeups. This issue would be resolved if I had data regarding Dollander’s velocity (or had been in attendance with a radar gun), but that was not included with the video. Either this indicates that he did not throw his Changeup during this outing, or his Changeup has similar movement to his Fastball, which indicates that Dollander may have success with this in the future given the amount of deception it has against his Fastball. Dollander is able to create further deception by sufficiently “hiding” the baseball during his delivery on all of his pitches, however I would rate his ability at this as above-average (as opposed to exceptional) compared to other top college pitchers.
Dollander’s Fastball is the best pitch in his entire arsenal, and it appears that he is able to generate a significant amount of vertical movement with the pitch. Every Fastball that Dollander located in the upper half of the strike zone resulted in either a Whiff or weak contact, while Fastballs located in the bottom half of the zone tended to result in harder contact and fewer Whiffs. Dollander also appears to get a good amount of horizontal movement/”run” on the pitch.
Dollander’s Curveball is arguably the second best pitch in his arsenal, and I was particularly impressed by his ability to locate and execute this pitch for strikes in the strike zone. Sitting 77–80 mph, Dollander is able to create deception which resulted in numerous called strikes with the pitch during this game. As a result of current trends across Major League Baseball, I can envision Dollander executing this pitch up in the strike zone as a means to generate called strikes in the future. I would also like to see him utilize it as a “chase pitch” in the future, as he relies primarily on his Fastball and (to a lesser extent) his Slider to generate Whiffs.
Dollander used his Slider the least out of the three pitches I have identified from this outing, and he appears to produce good results with it. Sitting 85–89 mph, Dollander is able to generate plus velocity with this pitch, and the pitch’s movement profile appears to be more of a gyro slider as opposed to a sweeper. The Slider generated both Whiffs and weak contact and Dollander, and he appeared to primarily throw the pitch to right handed hitters. Given the velocity of the Slider, I expect that this pitch will translate very well to success at the professional level, and if Dollander can add a couple mph of velocity to the pitch, it has the potential to rate amongst the better Sliders in all of baseball.
One piece of concern I had with Dollander is that he had a noticeable decrease in pitch execution and command towards the end of the video, presumably during his third time through the order. While a decrease in production when facing the batting order for third time can be expected, it should be noted that Dollander was working from the stretch for the first time during the game when these execution and command issues occurred. Determining whether or not working from the stretch is the cause of these issues, will be a point of focus of my scouting on Dollander moving forward.
Concluding Thoughts:
Dollander’s four pitch mix, excellent mechanics, and ability to execute and command his pitches, makes him one of the best pitching prospects in the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft class. Scouts and analysts have compared him to some of the best college pitching prospects, such as Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, and Trevor Bauer, and with a strong showing next season I would not be afraid to put him in this category. Dollander’s ability to execute his pitches while in the stretch will be something to keep an eye on next season, but I have little concern that any potential issues in this area will significantly impact his draft stock and long-term outlook. Chase Dollander has the potential to be one of the best college pitching prospects in recent memory, and I would expect him to be selected within the first few picks of the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by Prospects Live and University of Tennessee Baseball. Video by Prospects Live.