Draft Prospect Analysis: Dean West
(12/15/22) Dean West projects to be a future starting outfielder if he is able to make improvements to his offensive approach.
Originally published on Medium on December 15, 2022.
Welcome to the third article in a series where I will be analyzing some of the top prospects slated to be drafted in the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft. This article will focus on Dean West, a high school outfielder from California (committed to UCLA) who is projected by some analysts to be selected in the first round of next June’s draft. A twitchy, quick outfielder who already exhibits good plate discipline, Dean West projects to be a future starting outfielder if he is able to make improvements to his current offensive approach.
Statistical Analysis:
Taking a look at West’s statistics from this past high school season, Dean slashed .312/.504/.406, with 0 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 34 games. Dean also produced a walk rate of 22.2% and a strikeout rate of 8.9% in 135 plate appearances for Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, CA. Statistics from a high school baseball season provide an incredibly small sample size, and top prospects are expected to post gaudy numbers in such a short season due to the lack of quality pitching. However, a few takeaways can be taken out of Dean West’s 2022 high school season. First off, West’s lack of home runs in 2022 (and 2021), is a bit concerning at the moment as it indicates that he will need to add some muscle in order to hit for power at the professional level. While it can be expected that every amateur player will need to add some level of strength in order to succeed at the next level, the fact that West has not been able to hit home runs against low quality pitching limits his potential in this area in my opinion. On a positive note, West’s high walk rate and high on-base percentage indicates that he has good plate discipline, which is a positive indicator that at least some level of his offensive production will translate to professional baseball.
Courtesy of Perfect Game, West is one of the fastest players in his class, with his Dash and Split times in the Top 2%, and his OF velocity ranks in the Top 10% of his class. West’s speed is reflected in his ability to steal bases, and allows him to potentially cover a lot of ground in the outfield. West’s exit velocity of 87 mph, while above average for players in his class, helps to explain the lack of in-game power that West has displayed so far in his amateur career.
Videos:
For the video analysis of Dean West, I have primarily used two scouting videos. Both videos were taken from Perfect Game Showcases, the first video is from July 2022 while the second video is from June 2021. I will be primarily referring to the July 2022 video for the video analysis.
Video Analysis:
Analyzing West’s swing and approach at the plate, it is apparent that West possesses advanced plate discipline which will translate to the professional level. Referring to the 2022 video, West does not swing at “bad” pitches outside of the strike zone and frequently took pitches that were around the outer-third of the plate. West did have one strikeout looking on the inner-third of the plate during this showcase, however I believe it is fair to overlook this one instance, as the pitch appeared to be a bit inside and arguably would be called a ball by other umpires.
While West was able to hit the ball to all fields, I have questions regarding his approach at the plate, as it appears he consistently focused on pulling the ball, regardless of where the pitch was located. During the 2022 showcase, West had two swing-and-misses on fastballs on the outer-third of the plate, which indicated that he was trying to pull these pitches based on his hip and shoulder rotation. These are pitches that he should be trying to hit the other way, and is a potential weakness that can be exploited by opposing pitchers if he does not improve his approach at the plate.
As shown by the images above, West was able to hit the ball to both the pull side and the opposite way throughout the course of the showcase against left-handed pitching. One point of note that I did notice is that West did not hit the ball to the opposite field against right-handed pitching. Analyzing a small number of at-bats at a summer showcase is, of course, a small sample size, however it is a trend that is worth paying attention to in the future. Given his lack of home-run power, having a pull-heavy approach at the plate is already a suboptimal approach at the plate for Dean West, and if it is not improved upon he might have a vulnerability to pitches on the outer-third of the plate.
Another takeaway I took from watching Dean West at the 2022 showcase was his inability to hit pitches in the upper-third of the strike zone for hard contact. This can be attributed to his lack of swing-to-swing variation.
As shown by the two images above, West has a very similar attack angle for pitches in the upper and lower parts of the strike zone, which indicates that he needs to improve his ability to make mid-flight adjustments. Swinging at pitches in the upper part of the strike zone with a steep approach angle will result in a frequent amount of Whiffs and weak contact/pop ups. If West does not improve his ability to make mid-flight adjustments, and get “on plane” with the pitch, then it appears that West might have a vulnerability to producing solid contact in the upper parts of the strike zone moving forward.
Standing five foot nine and weighing 170 pounds, West will inevitably get lofty (and frankly unfair) comparisons to Mookie Betts as a short, quick, twitchy outfielder who is disciplined at the plate. However, West’s absence of any home run power makes this comparison unattainable, and will need to add some strength in the future in order to become a true difference maker at the plate. Having a pull-heavy, steep attack angle approach can be successful for a player with above-average power, however since West does not possess any home run power at the moment, I believe this will cause difficulties for him at the professional level without significant adjustments.
One difference I did notice between the 2021 and 2022 showcases is that West’s load has changed quite significantly, and this can be an element of his offensive approach that an organization can focus to improve upon when he reaches the professional level.
In 2021, West appears to be much more relaxed at the plate, more upright, and has his bat at a much more optimal angle at launch position than what he displayed during the 2022 Perfect Game showcase. In addition, it appears as if West is “rushed” at the plate and/or had difficulties with timing during the 2022 showcase, indicating that the game might have been “too fast” for him, which is an indicator that West might have a rocky transition to professional baseball. Given his much lower stance in 2022, my assumption would be that a hitting coach wanted to unlock more power by having West “get into his legs” more, which frankly is not bad advice given that West’s lack of displaying in-game home run power has been a major weakness. However, as shown by West’s production throughout 2022, this altercation has not been successful in generating additional in-game power. As mentioned earlier, I believe that the best path forward for Dean West to add more power to his game would be to continue to hit the weight room in order to add more strength and muscle to his frame, unlocking his potential to hit for more power.
Concluding Thoughts:
A twitchy, quick outfielder who already exhibits good plate discipline, Dean West projects to be a future starting outfielder if he is able to make improvements to his current offensive approach. As I’ve mentioned earlier, West has exhibited good discipline at the plate throughout his amateur career, and I believe that this will translate into him being able to draw walks at an above-average rate throughout his professional career. After watching his performance at the two aforementioned showcases, I have concerns about his offensive approach, as he is currently vulnerable to pitches on the outer-third of the strike zone and is limited in his ability to make solid contact at the top of the strike zone. If West is able to develop an “opposite field” approach to hit pitches on the outer-third, improve his swing-to-swing variation, and continue to hit the weight room, I can envision him becoming a starting outfielder for a Major League Baseball organization in the future.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by MaxPreps and Perfect Game. Video by Perfect Game (Kyler Peterson) and Baseball America.