Draft Prospect Analysis: Walker Jenkins
(12/5/22) Walker Jenkins can be considered one of the top prep hitters in the 2023 Major League Baseball draft class.
Originally published on Medium on December 5, 2022.
Welcome to the first article in a series where I will be analyzing some of the top prospects slated to be drafted in the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft. This article will focus on Walker Jenkins, a high school outfielder from North Carolina (committed to UNC) who is projected to be selected in the top half of the first round of next June’s draft. With an excellent ability to make in-game adjustments, advanced approach at the plate, and ability to hit the ball to all fields, Walker Jenkins can be considered one of the top prep hitters in the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft class.
Statistical Analysis:
Taking a look at Jenkins’s statistics from his past high school season, his production is at a level which one would expect from a standout player at this level. With a lack of quality pitching present at the high school level, it is expected that top prospects post gaudy numbers during their seasons playing varsity baseball, and Jenkins did not disappoint with a .527/.628/1.032 slash line this past season. One useful takeaway from this data is that Jenkins has displayed in-game power (albeit against low quality pitching), and his walk and strikeout rates indicate no reasons for concern regarding plate discipline.
Courtesy of Perfect Game, Jenkins displays exit velocity, arm strength, and sprint speed that places him amongst the top prospects in his class, indicating that he has high-level upside as a Major League outfielder. These metrics were captured in August 2020, and it can be assumed that these results have improved in the succeeding two seasons, however it would be valuable if more recent data was publicly available.
Videos:
For the video analysis of Walker Jenkins, I have primarily used two scouting videos taken this summer by Prospects Live and Baseball America. I will be referring to these two videos for the remainder of the article.
Video Analysis:
Taking a look at Jenkins’s swing and approach at the plate, it is easy to see why analysts and scouts believe that he is one of the best players in the upcoming draft class. Starting with a slightly open stance, Jenkins swing is very “smooth” and simple, and is able to generate a lot of power with a simple load, which includes an efficient movement of the hands directly back combined with a simple stride. It appears that he began the summer with a toe tap (as shown in the Prospects Live video), and switched to a simple stride towards the end of the summer, which I believe is a positive development, as I was planning on recommending that he experiment with ditching the toe tap to further improve his swing once he reaches the Minor Leagues. With such a simple and effective load, this should allow for Jenkins to adjust better to each successive minor league level, and potentially expedite his ETA.
Jenkins appears to be “in control” and has a plan at the plate during his at-bats, as he does not swing at bad pitches or looks significantly “fooled” in either video. This is consistent with the statistical indications that he has good plate discipline, and is another indication that his offensive production will be able to translate to the next level. One element of Jenkins’s offensive approach that I was impressed by was his ability to make in-game adjustments, particularly his swing-to-swing variation.
The images above display the point of contact from three of Jenkins’s batted ball events during the game featured in the Prospects Live video. Jenkins’s ability to make contact in the upper, middle, and lower parts of the zone (especially during the same game) is impressive and indicates that he has the potential to produce in all parts of the strike zone. Particularly impressive is how in all three at-bats (especially the at-bat in image 1), Jenkins is able to effectively make the adjustment mid-flight and approach the pitch with a proper attack angle. While simply viewing one game is an incredibly small sample size, Jenkins ability to effectively produce swing-to-swing variation indicates that Jenkins has the potential to produce in all parts of the strike zone in the future.
Another element of Jenkins’s offensive approach that I was impressed by was his ability to hit the ball to all fields. The images below display the point of contact from two of Jenkins’s batted ball events during the games featured in the Baseball America video.
As shown by these two sets of images, Jenkins displays an ability to not only hit pitches over the outer-half of the plate to the opposite field, but he is also able to turn on inside pitches and hit for power. It also appears that Jenkins displays more hip rotation when pulling the inside pitch in image 2, however I can not rule out the possibility that it appears this way due to discrepancies in the video angle and timing of the screenshot. If this is indeed the case however, this is another positive that can be taken away from Jenkins approach at the plate. The ability to hit pitches to all fields in this manner is impressive, and speaks to the advanced plate discipline and approach that Jenkins brings to the plate at this age. Combined with his plus physical tools and ability to hit for power, Walker Jenkins should be considered one of, if not the, best prep hitter in the 2023 Major League Draft class.
Concluding Thoughts:
With an excellent ability to make in-game adjustments, advanced approach at the plate, and ability to hit the ball to all fields, Walker Jenkins can be considered one of the top prep hitters in the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft class. Jenkins is in total control of his swing at the plate, as shown by his advanced plate discipline and ability to load in an efficient manner, which I believe will help him better adjust to each successive Minor League level and prevent the game from becoming “too fast” for him. I also believe that Jenkins’s ability to produce effective swing-to-swing variation is impressive, and is an indicator that he will be able to produce against pitches in all parts of the strike zone. His ability to take outer-third pitches the opposite way and turn on pitches inside not only displays his ability to hit for power, but also indicates that he may be able to limit his amount of strikeouts heading into future, as he is able to make more contact on pitches outside and not “pull out” and generate whiffs or weak contact which a more pull-dominant approach will frequently produce on pitches on the outer-third. In conclusion, Walker Jenkins can be considered one of the top prep hitters of his draft class, and I would be very surprised if he is not off the board within the first few selections of the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by MaxPreps and Perfect Game. Videos by Prospects Live and Baseball America.