Free Agent Profile: Cody Bellinger
(11/7/23) Is Cody Bellinger the most divisive free agent available on the market this offseason?
Originally published on Medium on November 7, 2023.
After two disappointing seasons to finish his career in Los Angeles, Cody Bellinger appeared to be quickly approaching the downside of his career when he was non-tendered by the Dodgers last offseason. While his defensive performance in Center Field provided him with a decent floor and an opportunity to stay in the Majors, whether or not he would be able to improve his offensive production was a major question when the Chicago Cubs signed him to a one-year contract last offseason. Most of those questions regarding his offense were answered this past season, as Bellinger produced a 134 wRC+ in 556 plate appearances for the Cubs, positioning himself as the top outfielder available on the free agent market this winter. While the surface-level statistics indicate that Bellinger had one of the best offensive seasons of his career, his underlying metrics raise questions regarding whether this level of production is sustainable moving forward, making Cody Bellinger one of the most divisive free agents available on the market this offseason.
2023 Adjustments:
As mentioned earlier, Cody Bellinger experienced intense struggles at the plate over his last two seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Back in 2019 when Bellinger won the National League Most Valuable Player Award, he was considered by many to be one of the best young players in Major League Baseball and a budding superstar that would be a prominent part in an intimidating Dodgers lineup for years to come. However, complications from a shoulder injury Bellinger suffered while celebrating a home run in the 2020 NLCS significantly altered the trajectory of his professional career.
After returning from injury in 2021, Bellinger experienced declines in both power and plate discipline, posting career high strikeouts and career low walks and power over his final two seasons with the Dodgers. Producing a 47 wRC+ in 2021 and a 83 wRC+ in 2022, Bellinger was an easy choice to be non-tendered by Los Angeles after the 2022 season.
As shown by the table above, Bellinger not only produced more power this season with the Chicago Cubs, but he was also able to cut down on his strikeouts significantly, back to the Strikeout Rates he produced before his shoulder injury. Cutting back on strikeouts has allowed for him to put the ball in play more often, resulting in more base hits and providing Bellinger with more opportunities to drive in runs, increasing his overall offensive production.
Bellinger made a couple adjustments to his swing last offseason which allowed him to make more contact and limit his amount of strikeouts. One adjustment Bellinger made was that he showed improvement at “staying back” on pitches by not initiating hip rotation too early. As a player who has shown an ability to hit for significant power in the past, it is imperative for a hitter like Bellinger to display good hip rotation in order to turn on pitches and tap into their raw power. In recent years however, Bellinger showed a tendency to open up his front hip too early, which caused him to lose his timing and be vulnerable on pitches located in the outer-third of the plate. I hypothesize that Bellinger started to “open up” early in order to make up for the upper body strength he may have lost as a result of his shoulder injury, however it also could purely be an instance of Bellinger falling into a bad habit.
2022 Video: Cdb64f16–635b-42ba-8062–3e3748dbd95f.mp4
2023 Video: 8d3a8d8f-479a-4111–8089-e763e07deb06.mp4
These two videos show a clear difference in Bellinger’s timing from 2022 to 2023, especially when viewed in slow motion. In 2022, Bellinger was initiating his hip rotation when the pitch was about halfway to home plate while he waited at least a split-second longer to initiate this movement in 2023. The difference is subtle, but this change has proven to be very important in improving Bellinger’s ability to make contact. Given the subtleness of this adjustment, I am curious to learn if this deficiency was identified via a biomechanical assessment, a hitting coach with a really sharp eye, or a combination of both. Either way, this adjustment has improved Bellinger’s timing and his ability to “stay back” on pitches, allowing him to hit pitches on the outer-third of the plate with more consistency.
Bellinger also made a slight adjustment to his signature “bat waggle” which I believe improved his ability to make contact last season. Since his Major League debut, Belligner’s stance has begun with his bat at an angle parallel to the ground which he then “waggles” to an upright position during his load. This has gotten gradually more exaggerated throughout his career, and Bellinger’s bat was almost perpendicular to the ground in 2022 at the point of his load.
With such an exaggerated movement during the load phase, this made it difficult for Bellinger to make contact on pitches up in the zone, as he simply did not have enough time to make an additional adjustment in order to make contact on these pitches. As shown by the images above, Bellinger’s bat angle during his load had been altered this past season to be less exaggerated, allowing him to make contact on pitches up in the zone and use his athleticism to get to pitches down in the zone.
As shown by the tables above, these adjustments have indeed been effective in allowing for Bellinger to make more contact. While his Swing Rate stayed roughly the same from 2022, Bellinger saw significant improvements in Contact Rate and Swinging Strike Rate in 2023. More specifically, these adjustments were able to eliminate a weakness he displayed during the 2022 season on making contact with pitches up and away. These mechanical adjustments were heavily instrumental in contributing to Bellinger’s offensive resurgence this past season and are a major reason why Cody Bellinger will be a highly sought-after free agent on the open market this winter.
Concerns Moving Forward:
While the adjustments Cody Bellinger made over the past year to improve his ability to make contact are impressive, there are signals present in his underlying metrics which indicate that the level of performance he displayed in 2023 might not be sustainable, and may give prospective suitors pause about offering him a lucrative contract this winter.
The first indication that makes me skeptical about Bellinger’s offensive production is his decline in Max. Exit Velocity since his shoulder injury. As I have described on this blog before, exit velocity statistics (such as Max. Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate) are important metrics to utilize in measuring how well hitters are performing because they are typically positively correlated with offensive production. If a player is consistently hitting the ball hard, they should see favorable results over the course of a full season. Max. Exit Velocity is a good indicator of a player’s raw power, with 110 MPH typically being used as a benchmark for considering whether a hitter can be classified as a “power hitter”. While Cody Bellinger hit a Max. Exit Velocity of at least 110 MPH every season early in his career, Bellinger has yet to produce an exit velocity over this benchmark since before his shoulder injury.
While reaching 109.2 MPH is still an improvement over the 107.4 MPH Max. Exit Velocity he produced over his two final seasons with the Dodgers, this decline in raw power is an indication that Bellinger still has never fully recovered from his should er surgery and the 26 Home Runs he produced in 2023 may likely be his power ceiling moving forward.
Another point of interest to me is that Bellinger’s Hard Hit Rate and Barrel Rate he produced in 2023 were the lowest of his Major League career, which usually does not happen when a player has a resurgent campaign like the one Bellinger just experienced. This could mean two things: Bellinger over-performed his batted ball statistics this season due to “batted ball luck”, and/or he simply gets to “all of his power” on the Home Runs he hits (Alex Bregman and Isaac Parades are two examples of players who fit this profile). Players who produce a lot of power despite unfavorable underlying metrics are players I typically do not bet on moving forward unless the player has shown a consistent pattern of such production, which makes me hesitant to buy into whether Bellinger can sustain this level of offensive production into the future. While Bellinger’s mechanical adjustments have allowed for him to hit for more contact moving forward, the signals that his underlying metrics provide put into question whether he will be able to consistently hit 20+ home runs per season throughout the duration of his next contract.
Concluding Thoughts:
While the surface-level statistics indicate that Cody Bellinger had one of the best offensive seasons of his career in 2023, his underlying metrics raise questions regarding whether this level of production is sustainable moving forward, making Cody Bellinger one of the most divisive free agents available on the market this winter. I believe whether or not he will be a good signing comes down to the monetary value of his next contract, which has the potential to be higher than his on-field value.
As a benchmark, I typically use the $8M per 1.0 WAR method, projecting that a player will increase their production by 0.5 WAR until they turn 30 in which then their production will decrease by 0.5 WAR per year. Projecting Bellinger’s value using this method is particularly complicated, given he is coming off two really bad seasons in recent memory and due to the concerns in his underlying batted ball data as mentioned earlier.
The tables above show three methods I used for projecting the contract Cody Bellinger will sign in free agency. The first table uses the method described earlier, the second table projects Bellinger’s future value given the assumptions layed out in this article, and the third table uses the Steamer projection system. It is apparent that there might be a large gap present between teams regarding how they value Cody Bellinger moving forward, which indicates to me that he will command a contract with an AAV towards the upper end of this range (~$25M AAV) on the open market, especially considering how thin the top of the market is for free agent outfielders.
While Bellinger’s defensive abilities, baserunning skills, and improved ability to make contact provide him a decent floor, I have a difficult time envisioning a scenario where a contract of $20M+ AAV for Cody Bellinger will be a good free agent signing in the long-run. While it is certainly within the realm of possibility that Bellinger continues to outperform his peripherals moving forward and turn this projected contract into a positive return on investment, a possibility also exists in which Bellinger turns into a slightly more productive version of Trent Grisham with a $25M AAV. Given these factors, I would most likely be out on Bellinger if I were a Major League team as I believe the value that he is going to command on the free agent market will drive the terms of his contract into a range which will limit the opportunity for a positive return on investment over the duration of his contract.
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Photo Credits to Marquee Sports, Chicago Tribune, WGN, and MLB.com.