Grayson Rodriguez’s Mid-Season Renaissance: How Adjustments Catapulted The Top Prospect to Ace Status

(8/22/23) Unpacking the adjustments that propelled Grayson Rodriguez from a challenging debut to the Orioles' rising ace in 2023.

Originally published on Medium on August 22, 2023.

Entering this season as the top pitching prospect in the Baltimore Orioles organization, Grayson Rodriguez underwhelmed in his first taste of Major League action, posting a 7.35 ERA with a 26.5% Strikeout Rate, 10.0% Walk Rate, and 1.74 WHIP over 45.1 innings pitched when he was sent down to Triple-A on May 27th. Since being called up to the Major League roster on July 16th, Rodriguez has produced a 3.03 ERA with a 21.9% Strikeout Rate, 8.0% Walk Rate, and 0.98 WHIP over 35.2 innings pitched. With a couple adjustments to his pitch arsenal, Grayson Rodriguez has not only turned his 2023 season around, but he has also reclaimed his potential as the ace of the future for the Baltimore Orioles.

Overview:

Grayson Rodriguez’s pitch arsenal currently consists of five pitches: a Four Seamer, a Changeup, a Slider, a Cutter, and a Curveball. Run Values indicate that the Changeup and the Slider have been Rodriguez’s most productive pitches this season, while FanGraphs’s Stuff+ model likes all of Rodriguez’s pitches besides his Cutter.

As shown by the table above, Rodriguez has been able to generate Whiffs with all of his pitches this season except for his Cutter, which only generated a 15.9% Whiff Rate alongside a .554 wOBA. In my opinion, the Slider has been Rodriguez’s best pitch so far this season with a 33.9% Whiff Rate and .171 wOBA on 17.0% usage.

While Grayson Rodriguez’s season-long pitch data makes it appear that he has had success throughout the entirety of the 2023 season, Rodriguez struggled to find consistency early in the season which resulted in a demotion to the Norfolk Tides, Baltimore’s AAA affiliate, on May 27th. During his time in the Minor Leagues, Rodriguez made a couple adjustments to his pitch arsenal that has allowed for him to have an excellent 2nd half of the season for the Baltimore Orioles.

Adjustment #1: Command + Velocity Improvements

The increased velocity and command ability that Grayson Rodriguez has exhibited with all of his pitches since being recalled to the Major League roster is a major reason as to why he has seen success during the 2nd half of the season. As mentioned earlier, Rodriguez struggled with a lot of contact being made off of him, and this can be attributed to his tendency of locating his pitches over the heart of the plate early in the season.

As shown by the table above, Rodriguez had issues locating his Changeup away from the middle of the strike zone early in the season, which allowed for the pitch to be hit for hard contact especially against hitters who were sitting off-speed. Since being recalled from AAA, Rodriguez has been excellent at locating the pitch down in/below the strike zone, which has allowed for the pitch to generate more Chases and Whiffs, and arguably makes the pitch the best in Rodriguez’s arsenal. Rodriguez has also improved the location and command of his Slider, avoiding throwing the pitch up in the zone which is also a recipe for hard contact. In addition, Rodriguez is also locating the Slider in a better position down-and-away to generate Chases and Whiffs, as before he was locating the pitch too far outside to maximize the amounts of Swing-and-Misses he could generate with the pitch.

In recent years, the Cleveland Guardians and San Francisco Giants player development teams have been very good at increasing pitcher’s velocities when they are in the Minor Leagues, and it appears that the Baltimore Orioles could be added to the list in the near-future, as Grayson Rodriguez has increased the velocity on all of his pitches since being sent down to AAA.

As shown by the table above, has seen an increase of at least 1 MPH on the average pitch velocity of each of the pitches in his pitch arsenal since being recalled from AAA on July 16th (with the exception of his Cutter, which will be described later). This increase in velocity is significant because it not only improves the “Stuff”/shape of Rodriguez’s pitches, but also increases their effectiveness when paired with the command improvements that Rodriguez has also displayed. This combination of increased velocity and increased command has been a major reason why Grayson Rodriguez has seen success in the 2nd half of the season for the Baltimore Orioles.

Adjustment #2: Pitch Arsenal Changes

Grayson Rodriguez has also made adjustments to the utilization of his pitch arsenal, which has allowed him to see more success with his best pitches during the 2nd half of the season. Entering the season, Rodriguez used all five of his pitches at least 7% of the time. Since his return to the Majors, Rodriguez has increased the usage of his Four Seamer, Changeup, and Slider while decreasing usage of his Curveball and nearly eliminating the Cutter from his arsenal entirely.

As shown by the tables above, Rodriguez’s Cutter did not perform well at all during his first stint at the Major League level. Pitch quality metrics such as Stuff+ and Location+ were not fans of the pitch, the pitch failed to generate many Whiffs, and got hit for a lot of hard contact. Reducing usage of the Cutter was the easiest adjustment to make to Rodriguez’s pitch arsenal given the lack of success with the offering, with the pitch only used now to catch opposing hitters “off-guard”.

Reducing the usage of the Curveball is an interesting decision, and it is mainly due to the fact that the top three pitches in Rodriguez’s pitch arsenal (Four Seamer, Changeup, and Slider) are simply elite. All three pitches have a Stuff+ of at least 120, which is at least two standard deviations from the mean of their respective pitch types, indicating that these pitches have elite shapes. As mentioned previously, I believe that this increase in Stuff can be attributed to the increase in velocity that Rodriguez developed at the Minor League level since there are no significant differences present in each pitch’s movement profile.

As shown by the tables above, with the exception of the decreased usage of the Cutter, there are no significant changes to the movement profiles of Rodriguez’s pitch since he was called back up to the Major League level. It is interesting to note however that it appears that the Slider does possess a bit more carry and the other three pitches do have slight increases in horizontal movement. I hypothesize that Rodriguez might be throwing from a slightly lower arm angle to create this added horizontal movement, however this is just my speculation and will be an area for further analysis in the future. By increasing the usage of his most productive pitches and almost entirely dropping the Cutter from his pitch arsenal, Grayson Rodriguez has been able to turn his season around with an outstanding 2nd half.

Concluding Thoughts:

With a couple altercations to his pitch arsenal, Grayson Rodriguez has not only turned his 2023 season around, but he has also reclaimed his potential as the ace of the future for the Baltimore Orioles. Improvements in command and velocity have allowed for all of his pitches to become more productive, and an emphasis on utilizing his best pitches more often has allowed for him to unlock the ace potential he had as a prospect. Given his current trajectory, Grayson Rodriguez is on a path to cementing his place as a prominent member of the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation for seasons to come.

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