Offseason Targets: Hitters
Three offensive players that I would target for acquisition this offseason.
The “hot stove” of the Major League Baseball offseason is beginning to heat up with the start of the annual Winter Meetings and the historic signing of Juan Soto to the New York Mets. In addition to Soto’s highly anticipated free agency signing, free agents such as Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso, and Alex Bregman will be signing with new teams over the next few weeks, while players such as Kyle Tucker and Devin Williams have the potential to be traded over the course of the offseason.
While high-profile signings and trades are an exciting part of the offseason, an even more exciting part of the offseason is when organizations acquire players, either through trade or free agency, that they believe are undervalued or are an adjustment away from significantly improving their level of production. For pitchers, teams may identify a new pitch that a pitcher should add or alter their pitch usage to improve their production, while for hitters teams may attempt to change a hitter’s intent at the plate or encourage them to improve their bat speed to tap into their unrealized potential and reach their ceiling of offensive production. In this article, I will break down three hitters (Trevor Larnach, Maikel Garcia, and Eloy Jiménez) I would target for acquisition this offseason.
Trevor Larnach (OF - Minnesota Twins):
One offensive player that I would target for acquisition this offseason would be Trevor Larnach of the Minnesota Twins. In his first full season at the Major League level in 2024, Larnach displayed a combination of bat-to-ball and power that resulted in a career-high 121 wRC+, which could make him a trade target for teams looking to acquire a strong-side platoon bat if Minnesota decides to proactively clear its incoming outfield surplus.
As shown by the table above, Larnach has displayed an ability to hit the ball hard throughout the entirety of his professional career, producing a best speed (EV50) of over 100 MPH in each of the past three seasons. This ability to hit the ball hard has translated to in-game power, with Larnach producing ISOs of at least .175 over the past three seasons. The primary concern regarding Larnach’s offensive profile entering this season was his tendency to swing and miss, with a 34.0% strikeout rate, 14.2% swinging strike rate, and 78.5% zone contact rate over 212 plate appearances in 2023, however, Larnach was able to lower his swinging strike rate to 11.5% and improve his zone contact rate to 86.7% in 2024, resulting in a 22.3% strikeout rate over the past season. Larnach’s swing decisions regressed slightly in 2024, as indicated by his SOTO, but it appears that his improvements in his bat-to-ball ability allowed him to mitigate this swing decision grade decrease.
In my opinion, the highlight of Larnach’s offensive profile is his bat-tracking metrics. Over 611 competitive swings taken this season, Larnach produced an average bat speed of 72.8 MPH, a squared-up rate of 28.6%, and a 14.9% blast rate which ranks as 23rd best in all of Major League Baseball among players with a minimum of 500 swings. Throughout my experience perusing the bat tracking leaderboards, it appears that most hitters are above average at either bat speed or squared-up rate, with the best hitters in the league generally being above average at both bat speed and squared-up rate. Larnach belongs in the latter category, with his bat speed, squared-up rate, and swing decisions all grading as above league average in 2024.
This past season, Larnach was nearly exclusively used against right-handed pitchers (377 PA vs. RHP, 23 PA vs. LHP), and projects to be a strong-side platoon bat for the foreseeable future. With outfield prospects such as Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins projected to be called up to the Major League roster in the near future, I am curious to see if Minnesota would be open to trade offers regarding Larnach. Larnach currently projects to be an above-average strong-side platoon bat moving forward, and if he can improve his swing decision ability to pre-2024 levels while maintaining the improvement in bat-to-ball ability, then it is possible that Larnach could produce a couple of 2+ win seasons over the next few seasons. Given the strong underlying metrics and his potential for further improvement, Trevor Larnach would be one notable offensive player that I would target for acquisition this offseason.
Maikel Garcia (3B - Kansas City Royals):
Another offensive player that I would target for acquisition this offseason would be Maikel Garcia of the Kansas City Royals. Seemingly every public analyst's favorite “sleeper” candidate entering the season, Garcia struggled to produce offensively in 2024 with a 69 wRC+ over 626 plate appearances. With plus defensive ability, the potential to play shortstop on a different team, and promising underlying metrics, Garcia could be an intriguing trade target for teams who have confidence they can improve Garcia’s offensive abilities, as the Royals look to improve offensively at third base.
As shown by the table above, surface-level statistics have been rather underwhelming for Garcia throughout his Major League career, as he has produced a wRC+ of under 85 in each of his first two seasons. While this lack of overall production has caused the Royals to look for offensive upgrades at third base, Garcia’s underlying metrics indicate that he could have a higher ceiling of offensive production with further development.
In 2023, Garcia produced a 50.6% hard hit rate and best speed (EV50) of 101.5 MPH, both above league-average, however, he was not able to translate this plus batted ball quality into offensive production due to a tendency to hit the ball on the ground, resulting in a 3.9% barrel rate. While he did display an improved ability to pull the ball in the air this past season (2.5% pulled fly ball rate in 2023 to a 3.7% pulled fly ball rate in 2024), Garcia’s hard hit rate declined to 42.8% and his best speed (EV50) declined to 100.1 MPH. While Garcia has displayed a plus ability to identify whether or not pitches are located in the strike zone (21.5% O-Swing in 2024), his SOTO grade is around league average, indicating that Garcia could make better decisions on pitches located in the strike zone.
Over 881 competitive swings this season, Garcia displayed below-average bat speed at 70.8 MPH while his squared-up rate of 35.6% ranks as the 5th best in Major League Baseball among qualified hitters. Having an above-average eye for the strike zone and plus contact ability is a trait that Garcia shares with players such as Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, and Marcus Semien, who consistently can tap into their power with below-average bat speed by frequently pulling the ball in the air, and this comparison has led to many analysts believing that increasing his pulled fly ball rate is the key to increase Garcia’s ceiling of offensive production. While this is generally a good approach to take with a player of this archetype (and I am certainly an advocate for pulling the ball in the air), I believe that this might not be the best approach to take to improve Garcia’s offensive ceiling.
Swing changes are difficult, and Garcia has consistently hit the ball on the ground throughout the entirety of his professional career dating back to rookie ball in 2017. Garcia’s FanGraphs prospect report also states how he “is especially adept at spraying contact to the opposite field, guiding the barrel all over the zone”. While a look at the data indicates that he would be best served by attempting to pull the ball in the air, I believe that training to add a couple of MPH of average bat speed would be the best approach to improving Garcia’s offensive production. Adding 2 MPH of bat speed would increase Garcia’s average bat speed to 72.8 MPH, and would result in Garcia’s bat tracking metrics looking similar to those of Yandy Díaz (73.3 MPH average bat speed, 31.9% squared up rate, 22.0% O-Swing in 2024). Leaning into Garcia’s strength of hitting the ball all over the field and adding bat speed could result in Garcia increasing his offensive output to at least 100 wRC+, turning into a Yandy Díaz-lite, which would be enough production to clear the offensive bar at his natural position of shortstop.
Garcia has played at third base over the past two seasons due to the presence of Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop, and Garcia has displayed plus defensive ability throughout his professional career which indicates that he could play shortstop if he is traded to a new organization this offseason. Garcia produced 2 OAA in 2024 and 15 OAA in 2023 at third base, and FanGraphs scouting report of Garcia as a prospect gave him a 60/60 fielding grade, indicating that “he has plus-plus hands and actions, a plus arm, and above-average range”. Playing third base in the presence of Witt Jr. has given Garcia a higher and more challenging offensive bar to clear to generate plus overall production, however, considering his plus defensive ability at shortstop, I believe that he could turn into a 2.5 to 3 win player with offensive improvements in a new environment. Given this untapped potential, Maikel Garcia would be another notable offensive player that I would target for acquisition this offseason.
Eloy Jiménez (DH - Free Agent):
Another offensive player that I would target for acquisition this offseason would be Eloy Jiménez, formerly of the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles. A highly-touted prospect when he made his debut in 2019, Jiménez has struggled with injuries throughout his Major League career, and his increased tendency to hit the ball on the ground has resulted in a minimized ability to tap into his in-game power. Jiménez would be an intriguing offseason acquisition for an organization that is confident they can get Jiménez to hit the ball in the air with more frequency in 2025.
While Jiménez’s underlying power metrics have remained consistent over the past three seasons (with a ~103 MPH best speed in each of the past three seasons), he has been declining in his ability to effectively utilize this power as evidenced by his declining barrel rate and isolated power. This decrease has been largely driven by an increasing tendency to hit the ball on the ground, with Jiménez’s ground ball rate increasing from 50.4% in 2022 to 56.1% in 2024. Jiménez’s swing decision ability has also regressed, with his SOTO declining from 29.2 to 26.2 over the past three seasons.
Despite this tendency to hit the ball on the ground, Jiménez’s bat-tracking metrics are excellent and arguably among the best in the league. Over 520 competitive swings this season, Jiménez produced a 73.9 MPH average bat speed, 29.8% squared-up rate, and a 17.5% blast rate which ranked as the 11th highest in all of Major League Baseball among hitters with at least 500 swings.
Throughout his professional career, Jiménez has displayed a swing with a flat attack angle, and it is likely that he will continue to run a high ground ball rate for the foreseeable future, however, if he can lower his ground ball rate to even ~50%, it is possible that he can experience a resurgence in his in-game power. As discussed with Garcia, swing changes are difficult and I would not expect Jiménez to make a dramatic change to his swing in the near future to dramatically steepen his approach angle, however, there are a few adjustments that Jiménez could pursue in order to recapture his prior power production.
Jiménez has experienced a decrease in pulled fly ball rate in recent years (7.1% pulled fly ball rate in 2022 to a 1.6% pulled fly ball rate in 2024), so perhaps one area of improvement could be to place a focus on attempting to pull the ball in the air with more frequency, which would allow for Jiménez to make contact during the part of the swing where the attack angle is the steepest, allowing him to increase his power production. Another area of improvement could be getting Jiménez to swing more frequently at pitches located in his nitro zone, which is in the heart of the plate, rather than swinging at pitches up-and-in, which he did frequently in 2024. Perhaps combining these two suggestions, and emphasizing making contact on these pitches out in front of the plate can be the “missing piece” needed for Jiménez to reclaim the power potential he displayed earlier in his career.
Playing 86 out of 87 games this past season as a designated hitter, Jiménez offers zero defensive value and really needs to hit at a high level to justify a spot in a Major League starting lineup. Jiménez’s excellent bat tracking metrics and ability to hit for high exit velocities still provide him with a solid floor of production, but he will need to hit the ball in the air with more frequency to effectively translate his raw power into offensive production. Given his offensive upside if he is able to improve his fly ball rate next season, Eloy Jiménez would be another notable offensive player that I would target for acquisition this offseason.
Thanks for reading!
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X and Adam Salorio on Substack for more in-depth MLB analysis. Photo credits to Matt Blewett, Associated Press, Charlie Riedel, and Cole Burston.