Pitch Analysis: MacKenzie Gore

(8/20/22) With improved command, MacKenzie Gore can fulfill his potential as a top of the rotation starter for the Washington Nationals.

Originally published on Medium on August 20, 2022.

Since being drafted 3rd overall in the 2017 Major League Baseball draft by the San Diego Padres, MacKenzie Gore has been one of the most hyped pitching prospects in all of baseball. Making his debut earlier this season, Gore was a part of the historic prospect package that was sent to the Washington Nationals in exchange Juan Soto and Josh Bell at this year’s trade deadline. Showing promise with his Fastball, Gore has struggled with his breaking and off-speed pitches this season causing him to underachieve the lofty expectations that have followed him throughout his professional career during his brief stint in the Majors. With improvements to his command and a few tweaks to his pitch distribution, MacKenzie Gore can live up to his ace potential and be an integral piece of the Washington Nationals rotation for the foreseeable future.

Background:

Published in April, one article from FanGraphs that does a good job at breaking down MacKenzie Gore’s pitch arsenal is “An Early Look at MacKenzie Gore’s Pitch Data” by Ben Clemens. In the article, Clemens breaks down three of Gore’s pitches (Fastball, Curveball, Slider), and his analysis serves as the basis for this article.

As discussed in the article, Gore’s Fastball has been his best pitch in his young career due to its excellent velocity and vertical approach angle. When it comes to his Curveball, Slider, and Changeup however, Gore suffers from a lack of command and below average movement. A quick look at Gore’s Baseball Savant page shows how all of his pitches have some element of below league-average movement.

Looking at this month’s edition of Eno Sarris’s Stuff+ model (subscription required), MacKenzie Gore’s Stuff+ (96.9) and Location+ (96.6) back up this observation.

Link: https://theathletic.com/3458778/2022/07/29/sarris-pitching-ranks-stretch-run/

Taking all of these factors into consideration, it appears that the best approach moving forward for MacKenzie Gore would be to continue to rely on his Fastball, improve the command and movement of his breaking pitches, and utilize an off-speed pitch to play off his Fastball and further deceive hitters, generating more strikeouts and ground balls in the process.

Four-seam Fastball:

The best pitch in MacKenzie Gore’s pitch arsenal is his Four-seam Fastball. Utilizing the pitch 60.9% of the time, opponents have had a wOBA of .307 (xwOBA =.349) and a Whiff rate of 18.7% against his Fastball. Gore’s Fastball averages 94.7 MPH with a Spin Rate of 2237, equaling a 23.62 spin-to-velo ratio.

Due to Gore’s excellent vertical approach angle, this Fastball has been dominant when utilized in the upper part of the strike zone. On pitches in the upper third of the strike zone, opponents have a Whiff rate of 23.2%, while opponent’s Whiff rate decreases to 12.3% when the fastball is utilized in the middle to bottom third of the zone. As a pitching coach, I would encourage Gore to continue the high usage of his Fastball and would not be opposed to him utilizing it even more. While the command issues Gore has experienced over the past two years have not escaped his Fastball, this pitch is definitely the best pitch in his arsenal and would be even more effective if he was able to locate it at the top of the zone more consistently moving forward.

Curveball:

The breaking pitch used the most in MacKenzie Gore’s pitch arsenal is his Curveball. Utilizing this pitch 18% of the time, opponents have had a wOBA of .361 (xwOBA = .368) and a Whiff rate of 31.9% against his Curveball. Gore’s Curveball averages 80.8 MPH with 52.3 inches of vertical movement and 0.6 inches of horizontal movement.

Gore’s Curveball is a classic 12–6 Curveball that has excellent vertical movements which produces a lot of Whiffs when used effectively. As shown by the heat maps, Gore has had trouble commanding this pitch during his time in the Majors and opponents have made him pay with high Contact rates when he hangs the pitch up the zone. While Gore’s Curveball possesses a lot of potential moving forward, he has to first correct his command issues in order for this pitch to reach its maximum effectiveness.

Slider:

Another breaking pitch that is in MacKenzie Gore’s pitch arsenal is a Slider. Utilizing this pitch 15.7% of the time, opponents have had a wOBA of .351 (xwOBA = .344) and a Whiff rate of 31.9% against his Slider. Gore’s Slider averages 87.4 MPH with 30.6 inches of vertical movement and 2.1 inches of horizontal movement.

Similar to his Curveball, Gore has experienced quite a bit of command issues with his Slider this season. Per Run Values, this is considered Gore’s worst pitch with a Run Value of 5, and I would recommend using this pitch a lot less in-game until the command issues are resolved. As shown by the heat maps, Gore has been successful at generating Whiffs with this pitch when used low-and-in to RHP and low-and-away to LHP, however he has rarely been able to locate his Slider in this area of the strike zone. The Slider is the pitch with perhaps the most potential in MacKenzie Gore’s pitch arsenal, however he needs to make major improvements when it comes to locating the pitch in order to make it an effective element of his pitch arsenal.

Changeup:

The least used pitch in MacKenzie Gore’s pitch arsenal is his Changeup. Utilizing this pitch 5.3% of the time, opponents have had a wOBA of .436 (xwOBA = .329) and a Whiff rate of 44% against his Changeup. Gore’s Changeup averages 84.8 MPH with 24.9 inches of vertical movement and 13.1 inches of horizontal movement.

Having only thrown 67 Changeups during his brief time in the Majors, it can be argued that it is too small of sample size to make any reliable projections or forecasts on how effective Gore’s Changeup will be in the future. However, the 44% Whiff rate that Gore has generated with this pitch is promising, and the Changeup is able to generate whiffs on the arm-side area of the strike zone which Gore’s other pitches have not been able to achieve. Just like his Curveball and Slider, command issues appear to be an issue with this pitch as well according to the heat maps. The arm-side movement of this pitch, as well with its ability to generate Whiffs early in MacKenzie Gore’s Major League career indicates that this pitch should be a more significant element of his pitch arsenal moving forward.

Recommendations:

I initially went into this analysis of MacKenzie Gore’s pitch arsenal thinking that I would need to design a new pitch to his arsenal in order for him to achieve sustained success at the Major League level. However, upon analysis of all four pitches that Gore currently possesses, I believe that his command issues are the primary factor holding him back from realizing his ace potential, and a mechanical fix may be in order. For this reason, I would recommend that Washington keep him at AAA for the remainder of the season in an attempt to get him control issues resolved in time for next season. When looking at Gore’s pitch scatter plot, it appears that he has sufficient differentiation between his pitches (both velocity-wise and movement-wise) and this will be to his benefit in the future.

Regarding his pitch distribution, I would suggest that Gore continue to throw his fastball most often in the interim. Once he is able to get his command issues under control, then I would recommend that he reduce the Fastball usage to around 48%, utilize his Curveball and Slider equally, and increase the usage of his Changeup. I initially considered designing a Splitter to add to Gore’s pitch arsenal, however I believe that his Changeup produces enough off-speed, arm-side movement that it compliments his Fastball well and can be utilized more often once the command issues are resolved.

With improvements to his command and a few adjustments to his pitch distribution, MacKenzie Gore can live up to his ace potential and be an integral piece of the Washington Nationals rotation for the foreseeable future.

Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on Twitter for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Brooks Baseball.