Pitch Analysis: Nick Martinez
(11/15/22) With a few adjustments to his pitch arsenal, Nick Martinez can become a valuable free agent acquisition this winter.
Originally published on Medium on November 15, 2022.
In my opinion, Nick Martinez is one of the most intriguing pitchers available in free agency this winter. Making his Major League debut back in 2014 with the Texas Rangers, Martinez moved to Japan to pitch in the NPB in 2018 before returning to the states to pitch for the San Diego Padres last season. Signing a one-year contract with multiple player options, Martinez opted for free agency this winter after a resurgent season as both a reliever and fifth starter for the Padres. Currently possessing a five pitch mix of a Four-Seam Fastball, Changeup, Cutter, Curveball, and Sinker, Nick Martinez can achieve more success next season with an altercation to his pitch arsenal, and be a valuable free agent acquisition for an organization this winter.
Pitch Overview:
As mentioned previously, Nick Martinez currently possesses a pitch arsenal of five pitches, a Four-Seam Fastball, Changeup, Cutter, Curveball, and Sinker. Displayed below are heat maps displaying the location and command of his pitches, a graph displaying the movement profiles of each of his pitches, and a table consisting of the velocity and spin metrics of each of his pitches.
As shown by the heat maps, Martinez displays excellent command on all of his pitches (except arguably his Curveball), and I am impressed by the differences in velocity he is able to have between his pitches. According to Baseball Savant, Martinez’s Curveball, 4-Seam Fastball, and Changeup all possess vertical movement that is above league average, while all of his pitches possess league average horizontal movement, with the exception of the Curveball which is below league average. Taking a look at the movement profile chart, I am immediately drawn to similarities that exist between the Sinker and the Four Seam Fastball. Both pitches have nearly identical velocity and spin, but the Sinker has slightly more horizontal and vertical movement. This indicates to me that a deeper dive in Martinez’s pitch arsenal is necessary, and that further analysis will likely result in a suggestion that one of these two pitches be either altered or removed from his pitch arsenal altogether.
Recommendations:
As shown by the table above, Nick Martinez had success this past season with four of the five pitches in his pitch arsenal. The Changeup and Curveball produced a higher Whiff% than wOBA/xwOBA which is an ideal outcome for those pitches, and the Cutter and Sinker do a sufficient job at preventing hard contact. In addition, the Changeup is also successful at preventing hard contact, making the pitch the most effective in Martinez’s arsenal.
The pitch that provided Martinez with the least amount of success in 2022 was his Four-Seam Fastball. Despite being the pitch he threw the most, batters produced a wOBA of .459 and a Hard Hit% of 44.4% against the pitch in 2022. While the .100 difference between wOBA and xwOBA indicate that Martinez probably was unlucky with the value his Fastball produced this season, the Whiff% of 18.1% as well as the high Hard Hit% indicate that this pitch still would have been the worst pitch in his arsenal, when adjusted for outliers.
Given the similar movement profiles present between the Sinker and the Fastball, in addition to the lack of success that Martinez experienced with his Fastball last season, I would recommend scaling back the usage of the Fastball dramatically in 2023. By increasing usage of the Cutter and the Sinker in place of the Fastball, this will allow for Martinez to generate more Whiffs (via increased usage of the Cutter) and more weak contact (via increased usage of the Sinker) than he would have produced with his Fastball. I would still keep the Fastball in a limited capacity if I were Martinez to use for deception purposes, however I would not be opposed to him eliminating this pitch from his pitch arsenal entirely.
Conclusions:
By dramatically scaling back the usage of his Fastball, or eliminating the pitch altogether in 2023, Nick Martinez can achieve more success next season and become a valuable free agent acquisition for an organization this winter. Opting out of the remaining three years and $18M on his contract, Martinez is expecting to earn more on a contract this winter, which is likely given the contracts awarded so far this offseason to fellow relievers Robert Suarez and Edwin Díaz. While the Padres view him as best suited for a relief role, it is believed that Martinez wants to go to a team that will give him a chance to be in the starting rotation.
Analyzing Martinez’s production as a starting pitcher last season, Martinez is excellent when facing the batting order the first time around, however his BB% and FIP increases dramatically beginning with the second time through the order. For these reasons, if Martinez were to be utilized as a starting pitcher, it would be best that he be on a team with a deep bullpen that would only require him to pitch a maximum of 5.0 IP each start. Whether he is used as a reliever or as a starting pitcher, with a few adjustments to his pitch arsenal, Nick Martinez can be a valuable free agent acquisition for a Major League organization this winter.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Brooks Baseball.