Pitch Analysis: Shintaro Fujinami

(7/27/23) With a couple adjustments to his pitch arsenal, Shintaro Fujimani can become an impactful arm in the Orioles bullpen.

Originally published on Medium on July 27, 2023.

In my opinion, one of the most intriguing transactions this trade season has been the Baltimore Orioles acquisition of Shintaro Fujinami from the Oakland Athletics. After spending the past 10 seasons in Japan, the 29-year-old Fujimani made the move to Major League Baseball last offseason, signing a 1-year, $3.25M contract with Oakland. Spending time as both a Starter and a Reliever with the Athletics, Fujinami posted an 8.57 ERA with a 22.1% Strikeout Rate and 13.0% Walk Rate before being traded to Baltimore on July 19th. With a couple adjustments to his pitch arsenal, Shintaro Fujimani can become an impactful arm in the bullpen for the Baltimore Orioles for the foreseeable future.

Overview:

Shintaro Fujinami’s pitch arsenal primarily consists of five pitches: a Four Seamer, a Splitter, a Cutter, a Sweeper, and a Slider. Run Values indicate that all of Fujinami’s pitches are of negative value, while FanGraphs’s Stuff+ model is a fan of Fujinami’s Splitter and Sliders, believing that they are the best pitches in his arsenal.

As shown by the table above, the Four Seamer has been Fujinami’s most utilized pitch the season, generating a 25.9% Whiff Rate and .354 xwOBA on 55.7% usage. Fujinami has been able to generate a lot of Whiffs with his secondary pitches, with each pitch generating a Whiff Rate of at least 30%. However, Fujinami’s main concern this season has been his lack of ability to command his pitches and limit walks, as explained by his 13.0% Walk Rate during his time in Oakland. In order to improve his results and maximize his potential as a member of the Orioles bullpen, Baltimore should focus on refining Fujinami’s pitch arsenal by increasing usage of his Splitter, improving the location of his Four Seamer, and decreasing usage of his Slider.

Adjustment #1: Fastball Usage

In order to become an impact arm in the Orioles bullpen, Shintaro Fujinami needs to alter the usage of his Four Seamer. As mentioned earlier, the Four Seamer is the most frequently used pitch in Fujinami’s pitch arsenal and while the pitch does generate a good amount of Whiffs, hitters are still able to create a lot of production off of the pitch.

As shown by the heat maps above, Fujinami frequently locates his Four Seamer in the heart of the strike zone. In my opinion, this indicates a problem because while Fujinami might be able to generate Whiffs on a middle-middle Four Seamer by catching a hitter “off-guard”, this is not a sustainable path to success as pitches in this location are typically hit for power. While Fujinami’s Four Seamer does not possess characteristics of a pitch that is successful at generating Whiffs up-in-the-zone (such as a flat vertical approach angle or high induced vertical break), it appears that Fujinami experiences more success with his Four Seamer when he elevates the pitch.

As shown by the heat map above, Fujinami generates noticeably more Whiffs when he elevates his Four Seamer, compared to when he locates the pitch down in the zone. As a result, I would recommend that Fujinami utilizes his Fastball up-in-the-zone more frequently moving forward. Not only would this adjustment allow for Fujinami to generate more Whiffs, but it will also make the pitch a better compliment to his secondary offerings due to the improved Four Seamer’s ability to expand the zone.

Adjustments #2+3: Increase Splitter Usage + Drop Slider

Another pair of adjustments that Shintaro Fujinami should make to his pitch arsenal in order to maximize his potential is to increase his Splitter usage and decrease usage of his Slider. As mentioned earlier, Fujinami’s Splitter is considered to be the best pitch in his entire arsenal according to FanGraphs’s Stuff+. Not only is the Splitter Fujinami’s best offerings, but it is also one of the best Splitters in all of Major League Baseball by measure of Stuff+.

According to the table of Stuff+ leaders shown above, Fujinami’s Splitter has been the 6th-best Splitter in all of Major League Baseball this season. Given the high pitch modeling grade as well as the high amounts of Whiffs the pitch generates, it is fair to question why Fujinami only utilizes the pitch 20.1% of the time and easy to suggest that Fujinami utilize the pitch more often. A deeper dive into the frequency in which Fujinami throws Splitters to LHH and RHH paints a fuller picture into how and when he can adjust the usage of his Splitter in order to see better results.

As shown by the table above, Fujinami only utilizes the pitch 14.6% of the time to right-handed hitters despite the pitch producing a 42.5% Whiff Rate and .186 wOBA against the same handedness. In addition, the pitch also produces a high amount of Ground Balls to hitters of both handedness. For these reasons, I would recommend that Fujinami increase the usage of his Splitter against both RHH and LHH. While Splitters typically perform better to hitters of the opposite handedness, the reverse splits that the pitch currently produces indicates that Fujinami can have success utilizing this pitch to RHH moving forward. In addition, if Fujinami is able to locate the pitch in the zone more frequently to LHH, I would expect the wOBA allowed on the pitch to decrease, increasing the pitch’s effectiveness.

In place of increased usage of the Splitter, I would encourage Fujinami to stop utilizing his Slider, especially to right-handed hitters. As shown by the table above, right-handed hitters have been creating a lot of production against the Slider, with a .758 wOBA against the pitch. Left-handed hitters have experienced more difficulty against the Slider, producing a .210 wOBA and a 39.1% Whiff Rate against the pitch. For these reasons, I would recommend that Fujinami drop usage of his Slider (especially to RHH), and utilize primarily his Splitter alongside with his Four Seamer to opposing hitters in order to maximize his potential.

Concluding Thoughts:

The Baltimore Orioles acquisition of Shintaro Fujinami presents an intriguing opportunity for their bullpen as Fujinami’s pitch arsenal shows potential for improvement. To maximize his potential, Fujinami should elevate his Four Seamer in the strike zone, increase the usage of his effective Splitter, and decrease his Slider usage, especially against right-handed hitters.

In three appearances with Baltimore since the trade, Fujinami has been placing emphasis on his Four-Seam/Splitter combo which indicates that the Orioles also believe that these are the adjustments Fujinami needs to make in order for him to become a key contributor to Baltimore’s bullpen. With a couple adjustments to his pitch arsenal, the Orioles acquisition of Shintaro Fujinami has the potential to be one of the most important transactions of this trade season, as it might provide Baltimore with another quality arm in their bullpen to utilize in what the Orioles expect to be a deep postseason run.

Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard.