Reviewing Three Notable Pitchers Traded At The Deadline
A closer look at Lucas Sims, Nick Mears, and Dylan Lesko.
This year’s trade deadline was particularly active, with players such as Randy Arozarena, Yusei Kikuchi, Jack Flaherty, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. all changing teams before the July 30th deadline. Pitchers (starters and relievers) are always targeted at the trade deadline by teams seeking to make a Postseason push, and the price for pitching was particularly high this season as teams such as the Marlins and Rays received significant returns in trades for pitchers such as Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, and Jason Adam. Acquiring relievers at the deadline is particularly important for contending teams, as constructing a bullpen is typically the last step in constructing a championship-caliber roster, and acquiring an extra arm at the deadline can provide a team with the additional reinforcements needed for making a deep Postseason run. In this article, I will analyze two relievers (Lucas Sims and Nick Mears) who have the potential to impact their new teams during the final stretch of the season. Additionally, I’ll examine Dylan Lesko, an intriguing prospect who was the centerpiece in one of the numerous high-value trades for pitching at this year’s deadline.
Lucas Sims (RHP - Boston Red Sox):
As has been discussed in many articles, the Boston Red Sox have undergone a major shift in pitching strategy this season under new pitching coach Andrew Bailey by significantly decreasing their four-seam fastball usage. It is only appropriate that one of their major acquisitions at the trade deadline, Lucas Sims, throws one of the best breaking balls in all of Major League Baseball (by measure of aStuff+) and is a prime candidate to reduce their four-seam fastball usage moving forward.
As shown by the table above, Sims’s arsenal consists of four pitches: a sweeper, a four-seam fastball, a cutter, and a curveball. Sims primarily utilizes the sweeper and four-seam fastball against both left and right-handed hitters while mixing in the curveball against left-handed hitters. Averaging 84.1 MPH with 17.1 inches of vertical movement, Sims’s sweeper is graded as an elite pitch by measure of aStuff+ (136), and his frequent utilization of this offering contributes to his overall aStuff+ (133) ranking as the third-highest in all of Major League Baseball, behind Emmanuel Clase (139) and Griffin Jax (133).
There are two adjustments that I believe Sims can make in order to raise his ceiling as a relief pitcher. First, Sims could add a sinker to his pitch arsenal to have a better fastball to utilize against right-handed hitters. While Sims’s four-seamer grades as slightly above-average by aStuff+ (104), opposing hitters have performed well against the offering this season, producing a -4 run value and a .421 wOBA against the four-seamer. Adding a sinker to his pitch arsenal would likely allow Sims to induce more weak contact to right-handed hitters due to the arm-side run the pitch would generate, turning Sims’s movement profile into more east-west, which could allow him to sneak in the occasional upstairs four-seamer for swing-and-miss. Boston appears to be taking the first step in adding a sinker and reducing his four-seam usage, as Sims has only thrown one four-seamer since being acquired by the Red Sox.
Another adjustment that I believe Sims should make is increasing his cutter usage. By measure of run value, the cutter has been Sims’s most productive pitch this season despite only being utilized 8.1% of the time. Opposing hitters have struggled to make impactful contact against the pitch, producing a 41.2% whiff rate, .107 wOBA, and .109 xwOBA against the cutter this season. Cutters tend to perform better against opposite-handed hitters as the pitch will cut “in” on the hitter, resulting in contact off of the barrel of the bat if the hitter makes contact. While cutters can generate swing-and-miss against same-handed hitters, the pitch’s movement runs along the hitter’s bat path, resulting in hard contact if the pitcher “misses their spot”.
When analyzing Sims’s splits this season, I was surprised to learn that Sims has used his cutter only 9.9% of the time to left-handed hitters, and the pitch has been nearly untouchable when utilized to hitters of the opposite handedness (41.7% whiff rate, .014 xwOBA). Perhaps the element of surprise has played a role in the effectiveness of the offering this season, but increasing the usage of the cutter appears to be a simple way for Sims to improve his production against left-handed hitters. While Sims has only thrown 21 pitches as a Red Sox so far, he has thrown 4 cutters (equaling a 19% usage rate), perhaps indicating that Boston plans on increasing his cutter usage moving forward.
By reducing his four-seam fastball usage and encouraging him to lean on his best pitches, Lucas Sims has the potential to be an impactful reliever for the Boston Red Sox over the final two months of the season.
Nick Mears (RHP - Milwaukee Brewers):
As I have written about before on this Substack, Coors Field is one of the most difficult ballparks in Major League Baseball to pitch in, not only due to the high altitude's effect on batted ball distance but also its effect on pitch movement. By being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline, Nick Mears has the opportunity to fully leverage his plus four-seam fastball, potentially leading to a significant boost in his overall performance.
As shown by the table above, Mears’s pitch arsenal consists of three pitches: a four-seam fastball, a slider, and a curveball. Mears frequently relies on his four-seamer, utilizing the pitch 59.4% of the time, and has been able to generate good results with the offering (5 run value, .293 wOBA) despite a below-average whiff rate (19.2%). Mears’s slider is his best offering at generating swing-and-miss with a 51.2%, while his curveball has produced underwhelming results (-8 run value, .442 wOBA) to the point where the Brewers should consider toggling down the usage rate of the pitch. Both the four-seamer and the slider grade as above-average shapes by measure of aStuff+, while the curveball grades as below-average.
As I demonstrated when analyzing Victor Vodnik as one of my trade deadline targets, the environmental effects of Coors Field have a significant impact on the pitch quality grades of four-seam fastballs and reduce their overall effectiveness. This phenomenon has had a substantial impact on the aStuff+ grades of Mears’s pitch arsenal this season.
As shown by the table above, the environment of Coors Field has a significant effect on the pitch quality of Mears’s four-seam fastball, with the pitch grading as a 99 aStuff+ at home and a 114 aStuff+ on the road. Given that 10 points of aStuff+ equals 1 standard deviation away from the mean, this means that while Mears’s four-seamer was slightly below average at home, the offering was nearly a standard deviation and a half above league average on the road. For reference, a four-seam fastball with an aStuff+ of 114 would rank as the sixth-best four-seam fastball in all of Major League Baseball (minimum 100 pitches) next to Ryan Helsely, Jeremiah Estrada, and Michael Kopech.
For this reason, I believe that simply changing his home park from Colorado to Milwaukee is going to have a significant impact on Mears’s performance moving forward. Mears has only thrown 3 curveballs with the Brewers so far, indicating that Milwaukee does intend to reduce the usage of his underwhelming curveball moving forward. Pitching in friendlier environments should help his four-seam fastball experience better results, generate more whiffs, improve his strikeout rate, and turn Mears into an impact reliever who could play a significant role in Milwaukee’s bullpen over the final months of the season.
Dylan Lesko (RHP - Tampa Bay Rays):
The market paid a premium for acquiring pitchers at this year’s trade deadline, and the Tampa Bay Rays took advantage of this high demand for pitching reinforcements in their trades of Zach Eflin to the Baltimore Orioles and Jason Adam to the San Diego Padres. Once a very highly regarded prospect, Dylan Lesko was a major part of Tampa Bay’s return for Adam and could reclaim his potential as an impact starter with a few adjustments to his pitch arsenal.
Drafted 15th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft by the San Diego Padres, Lesko was one of the most complete high school pitching prospects in recent memory before undergoing Tommy John surgery just before being drafted. Returning from injury with 12 starts last season and 16 starts so far this season in the Minor Leagues, Lesko has experienced some issues throwing strikes and will need to improve his command issues to become a starting pitcher at the Major League level.
In 35 innings split between complex ball, A, and High-A, Lesko produced a 35.9% strikeout rate, 15.2% walk rate, and 20.7% K-BB in 12 games upon returning from injury last season. This season at High-A, Lesko’s walk and command issues have persisted with his walk rate increasing from 15.2% to 16.5%, while hitters are striking out less frequently with his strikeout rate decreasing from 35.9% to 25.0%.
Over the past couple of seasons, the Rays have been a team that has frequently utilized a central target for their pitchers. A central target is when the catcher sets up in the middle of the zone, intending for the pitcher to aim middle-middle and let the movement and “miss” of the offering lead the pitch to its location. This is opposed to the traditional method of catcher targeting which is to set up at the intended location of the offering. I simply have not watched enough of Lesko’s Minor League starts to analyze his intended locations, but I believe that utilizing a central target should allow him to throw more strikes as it would give his “misses” more margin of error to either land in the strike zone or generate swing-and-miss as opposed to being uncompetitive.
Since High-A Statcast data is not publicly available, it is difficult to fully analyze the pitch quality of Lesko’s arsenal as I am not able to utilize my aStuff+ model without this information. However, utilizing scouting reports and other forms of analysis does provide some valuable insight into the quality of Lesko’s arsenal and the adjustments he needs to make in order to reach his full potential.
Lance Brozdowski of Marquee Sports recently posted on X an excellent breakdown of the shapes of each pitch in Lesko’s arsenal utilizing data that he has access to. Consistent with scouting reports that rave about the ride on Lesko’s fastball and its ability to generate swing-and-miss at the top of the zone, Lesko’s four-seam fastball averages 93 mph with 19 inches of induced vertical break at a 6.3’ release height, likely grading as above-average in pitch quality models and providing Lesko with a solid foundation to build his arsenal around. Lesko’s changeup also grades well with scouts and should provide him with an effective swing-and-miss pitch he can utilize to left-handed hitters.
One concern about Lesko’s pitch arsenal is his lack of an effective swing-and-miss offering that he can use against right-handed hitters. Currently, Lesko’s primary breaking ball to utilize against right-handed hitters is his curveball, which only generated a 15% chase rate last season per Synergy Sports. This is likely due to the large velocity gap between his four-seam fastball and curveball (with the curveball averaging 76 MPH), causing the pitch to “jump” out of the pitcher’s hand which allows for the hitter to easily identify the pitch and make a swing decision in their favor. Adding a slider and/or hard cutter to his pitch arsenal could help Lesko generate more swing-and-miss against right-handed hitters, as it would provide him with a harder breaking ball that would tunnel more efficiently with his four-seam fastball, making it more difficult for opposing hitters to identify. Lesko has attempted to add a slider this season, and perhaps Tampa Bay’s pitching development staff can help him turn the pitch into an effective, above-average offering.
Combining a new slider and/or hard cutter with his riding four-seam fastball would give Lesko a solid floor as an impact reliever in the Rays bullpen in the near future. Improving his ability to throw strikes, perhaps through the use of a central target, would help Lesko reduce his walk rate and possibly allow him to reclaim his potential as an impact starting pitcher at the Major League level.
Thanks for reading!
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X and Adam Salorio on Substack for more in-depth MLB analysis. Photo credits to Getty Images.