Scouting Report: Gunnar Henderson
How I would approach one of the league’s best hitters.
Currently tied for first place in the American League East with a record of 72-50, the Baltimore Orioles are looking to repeat as division champions over the final stretch of the season. As perhaps the most impressive young team in all of Major League Baseball, the Orioles have one of the brightest organizational outlooks in the entire league, headlined by the emergence of star shortstop Gunnar Henderson.
Projected to compete with Bobby Witt Jr. for the title of best shortstop in the American League for the foreseeable future, Henderson has taken a step forward offensively this season, producing career-highs in wRC+, wOBA, isolated power, and currently ranked fourth among qualified hitters in fWAR. This article will look at how I would approach Gunnar Henderson, one of the best hitters in the league, if I were an opposing pitcher.
Summary + Trends:
Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 2nd round of the 2019 MLB Draft, Henderson has done nothing but produce offensively since making his Major League debut towards the end of the 2022 season. Henderson’s ability to hit the ball hard stands out the most amongst his offensive profile, with his 56.1% hard hit rate and 12.6% barrel rate this season ranking among the best in Major League Baseball. This ability to consistently hit the ball hard is driven by Henderson’s outstanding bat speed, averaging 76.0 MPH (11th among qualified hitters).
Henderson also displays good plate discipline (22.4% O-Swing, 44.0% Swing), which allows him to both draw walks and effectively attack pitches that he knows he can drive for damage. Henderson’s bat-to-ball abilities have also improved this season, with his swinging strike rate declining from 11.4% to 9.6%. With double-plus power, an advanced eye at the plate, and an improving ability to make contact, Henderson has been one of the most feared hitters in all of baseball so far this season.
As shown by the rolling graph above, Henderson has had an excellent season in terms of wOBA, with his hottest stretch of the season occurring from May 15th to July 4th. Henderson has experienced two “slumps” this season, with the first one occurring in early May (April 30th to May 15th) and the second one occurring in July (July 4th to July 28th). Henderson’s 15-game rolling wOBA has been steadily increasing since the beginning of August, which could indicate that he is primed for a strong finish to the season.
When overlaying Henderson’s 15-game rolling FB% and Z-Swing% with his 15-game rolling wOBA, two major trends emerge. First, while there does not appear to be a significant relationship between these two variables early in the season, there is a strong relationship between Henderson’s rolling fly ball rate and his wOBA since the beginning of August. This appears to me that he is making a more conscious effort to lift the ball which is resulting in better offensive outcomes. Second, there appears to be a somewhat strong relationship between Henderson’s rolling Z-Swing% and his rolling wOBA, especially during his strong start to the season and his current resurgence. This indicates to me that Henderson has been looking to be more aggressive on pitches in the strike zone, and pitchers should exhibit extra caution in attempting to avoid locating pitches in Henderson’s nitro zone.
Game Plan:
Before proceeding into the game plan, here are a few notes about how I formulated this plan of attack. This analysis will be conducted from the perspective of a right-handed pitcher, and (to have a larger sample size) will be conducted using data from the entire 2024 season. Data regarding how well Henderson performs against different pitch types has been scraped from Statcast, while the heat maps included in the analysis are from FanGraphs. This might result in some slight discrepancies regarding sample size, due to differences in how we define count situations. Barrel rate is approximated using the linked formula created by Alex Chamberlain. Data in this analysis is updated through the end of play on August 14th, 2024.
First Pitch (0-0):
On first pitch, Henderson most often sees a four-seam fastball with pitchers utilizing the offering on first pitch 138 times this season. Utilizing a changeup to Henderson on first pitch can generate more swings and more whiffs than a four-seam fastball, while curveballs have been an effective pitch to utilize to Henderson in 0-0 counts due to his tendency to take the pitches or swing at them with a softer bat speed.
Utilizing a four-seam fastball to Henderson on first pitch can be very dangerous, considering he is currently producing an 83.3% hard hit rate and 25.0% barrel rate when he makes contact on four-seamers in 0-0 counts. The main takeaway of the above graphs is the demonstration of Henderson’s nitro zone, which is on pitches located on the inner-third of the plate, preferring fastballs up-and-in from right-handed pitchers. When utilizing a fastball first pitch, a right-handed pitcher should focus on locating the offering on the outer-third, as this provides them with the greatest opportunity for a called strike or weaker contact.
Ambushing Henderson with a changeup on first pitch can be an effective game plan for generating a first-pitch strike, especially if the pitcher has a plus changeup in their arsenal. Henderson swings at changeups more frequently than four-seamers and also whiffs at them more frequently. As shown by the heat maps above, Henderson has a subtle hole on first-pitch changeups low-and-away, either swinging and missing or taking called strikes on pitches located in this area of the zone. When he makes contact, Henderson still generates hard contact against changeups (77.8% hard hit rate, 11.1% barrel rate) so it is imperative to keep the pitch down and not let it leak over the middle of the plate.
I believe that throwing Henderson a curveball on the first pitch of an at-bat is the best plan of attack for a right-handed pitcher, especially when located on the outer-third of the plate. As shown by the heat maps above, Henderson frequently takes first pitch curveballs located on the outer-third of the plate and doesn’t generate productive contact when he does decide to swing at a first pitch curveball. The average bat speed on swings he takes on 0-0 curveballs (68.9 MPH) indicates that he is usually caught off-guard by these pitches, which causes his bat speed to decline when he does decide to swing.
The day after I completed this analysis, Henderson hit a home run off of Nick Pivetta on a first pitch curveball during his second at-bat of the game. During his first at-bat of the game, Pivetta also threw Henderson a first pitch curveball (which resulted in a foul ball). While the first-pitch curveball on the second at-bat was located a bit too much inside (where Henderson is more likely to swing), this is a situation where you just have to tip your hat to Henderson for making productive contact on a pitch he was not expected to drive for a home run.
When Pitcher Is Ahead (0-1, 0-2, 1-2):
When the pitcher is ahead in the count, Henderson most often sees a four-seam fastball with pitchers utilizing the offering 104 times when ahead in the count this season. Henderson has proven to be good at fending off changeups when in favorable counts to the pitcher so far this season, while struggling against cutters. Sliders are high-risk/high-reward in these count states, with Henderson displaying a low contact rate but a high barrel rate and xwOBAcon on sliders in these counts.
Similar to his heat maps on first pitches, Henderson loves to swing at four-seam fastballs in his nitro zone when he is behind in counts, and he is very well capable of doing damage on these pitches (41.2% hard hit, 11.8% barrel rate, .459 xwOBAcon). Henderson does exhibit a tendency to swing-and-miss on four-seamers located at the top of the zone, particularly up-and-away, and a pitcher who has a fastball that is effective at generating swing-and-miss in these areas of the zone (ex. plus induced vertical break or vertical approach angle) can have success utilizing the four-seamer against Henderson in these counts.
Attacking Henderson with a changeup can be an effective strategy for a right-handed pitcher when he’s ahead in the count if they are aiming to generate weak contact. Henderson will rarely expand the zone to chase changeups low-and-away, and pitchers might even be able to steal a called strike in this area of the zone due to Henderson’s reluctance to swing at these pitches. While he can produce some damage if the pitch is located too far inside, Henderson has not generated much production on low-and-away changeups this season.
My preferred pitch to utilize against Henderson when he’s behind in the count is a cutter. As shown by the heat maps above, Henderson frequently takes cutters when located low-and-away from right-handed pitchers, and has not produced impactful contact on these pitches in these counts this season (0.0% barrel rate, .245 xwOBAcon). Henderson also has trouble making contact on the pitch, especially when it is located down-and-in (56.2% contact rate) Right-handed pitchers who have a good feel for their cutter command should attempt to backdoor their cutters to Henderson when they are ahead in the count, as they’ll be able to generate a called strike if they hit their spot, and their natural miss (in the direction of the pitch’s movement, so glove-side in this scenario) takes them into an area of the zone where Henderson frequently whiffs at the offering.
A “high-risk/high-reward” strategy would be to throw Henderson a slider in these counts. As indicated by his impressive 77.0 MPH average bat speed, it appears that Henderson often looks for sliders when he’s behind in the count and does a lot of damage when he makes contact (42.9% hard hit rate, 28.6% barrel rate, .870 xwOBAcon). There is some swing-and-miss on sliders located down in the zone, however, this is also where Henderson creates the most production on the offering. I would only throw Henderson sliders in these counts if the pitcher has a plus-plus slider that is able to ‘beat” Henderson in these areas of the zone.
When Pitcher Is Behind (1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1):
When the pitcher is behind in the count, Henderson hits four-seam fastballs very hard, producing a 90.5% hard hit rate and 19.0% barrel rate against four-seamers in these counts. Henderson is looking to do damage when he is ahead in the count, as his average bat speed increases against all pitches in these situations. Henderson has struggled against changeups, sinkers, and cutters when he is ahead in the count, and these are the pitches that I would utilize against him as a right-handed pitcher.
Similar to when he is behind in the count and on first pitch, Henderson frequently swings at four-seam fastballs in his nitro zone up-and-in when he is ahead in the count. While there is some swing-and-miss at the top of the zone, Henderson is able to produce impact contact throughout the zone against fastballs in these counts. Given the production he is able to generate on these pitches throughout the zone (.558 xwOBAcon), I would avoid throwing Henderson four-seam fastballs when he is ahead in the count.
Henderson’s swing tendencies against changeups appear very similar to his heat maps when he’s behind in the count, as he rarely expands the zone to chase changeups located low-and-away. The main difference is that he has some swing-and-miss on changeups low-and-in when he is ahead in the count. This could be a dangerous strategy to attack him with changeups in this location, as they could leak out over the plate into his damage zone, however, if I were a pitcher who has a good feel for their changeup command, I would attempt to throw him at least one changeup in these counts.
Henderson has a more difficult time against sinkers than four-seam fastballs when he is ahead in the count, and this is reflective of a larger league trend of utilizing more sinkers in these counts. Henderson swings at sinkers with roughly the same frequency and intensity as he does with four-seamers, and actually produces a higher contact rate against sinkers. The main difference is that Henderson’s quality of contact has been much lower on sinkers than four-seamers when he’s ahead in the count, with a 38.5% hard hit rate, 0.0% barrel rate, and .318 xwOBAcon. This might be a bit unorthodox considering that sinkers are typically thrown to same-handedness hitters, however, my primary point of attack against Henderson if I were behind in the count would be to throw him outer-third sinkers, particularly up-and-away where he exhibits some swing-and-miss tendencies against the offering.
Right-handed pitchers could also effectively utilize a cutter against Henderson when they are behind in the count. Similar to his swing tendencies against four-seam fastballs, Henderson frequently swings at cutters located up-and-in and he swings at these pitches hard when he’s ahead in the count, with an average bat speed of 79.4 MPH. Henderson is also capable of creating damage on these pitches when located on the inner-third. How can a right-handed pitcher effectively use this offering against Henderson when they are behind in the count? Henderson frequently takes cutters when they are located down-and-away, and a right-handed pitcher with a good feel for locating his cutter can attempt to generate a called strike in this part of the zone.
Even Counts (1-1, 2-2, 3-2):
In even counts, Henderson is very good against four-seam fastballs, with a 55.6% hard hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and .643 wOBAcon. Henderson has some swing-and-miss issues with changeups in these counts, as indicated by his 56.8% contact rate, however, he is able to generate production when he does make contact with a 53.8% hard hit rate and 15.4% barrel rate. Henderson is able to make frequent contact against sliders in even counts but not at ideal launch angles, as indicated by his 0.0% barrel rate against these pitches.
The heat maps on FanGraphs include first pitches (0-0) as “even” counts, so for the sake of consistency I will not be including their heat maps for this portion of the analysis. Upon perusing the heat maps for each individual even count, Henderson has the same strategy on four-seam fastballs in even counts as he does in other counts: hunting pitches up-and-in, creating damage on the inner-third, with some swing-and-miss up-and-away. Against changeups, Henderson does swing-and-miss against these pitches low-and-away, with most of the damage occurring when the pitch leaks back over the heart of the plate. While Henderson makes contact against the slider throughout the zone, he has yet to produce a barrel against a slider in an even count this season.
Given these factors, I would focus on attacking Henderson with up-and-away four-seamers and down-and-away changeups in even counts. This would allow for a right-handed pitcher to attack Henderson’s weaknesses against these pitches and generate swing-and-miss in these specific count situations.
Takeaways:
Be very careful with the four-seam fastball. Do not miss inside (in all counts), he will crush it.
Selective approach. Prefers pitches on the inner-third, and is willing to take a called strike outside even when he’s behind in the count.
Changeup can be very effective at generating called strikes and/or swing-and-miss low-and-away if the pitcher is able to command the offering effectively.
Struggles against sinkers. Excellent to use when the pitcher is behind in the count and has a sinker in their arsenal that they are comfortable utilizing to opposite-handed hitters
Curveballs on 1st pitch can be an effective strategy to get ahead in the count. Often doesn’t swing or slows his swing down.
Some upstairs swing-and-miss is present against the four-seam fastball, however, this can be very risky as misses could take fastballs into his nitro zone.
Thanks for reading!
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X and Adam Salorio on Substack for more in-depth MLB analysis. Photo credits to USA Today.