Scouting Report: How Cristian Javier Can Attack The Miami Marlins
(8/15/23) How Cristian Javier Can Get His 2023 Season Back On Track Against The Miami Marlins.
Originally published on Medium on August 15, 2023.
The Houston Astros and Miami Marlins are two teams that have moved in opposite directions during the second half of the season. Houston has rode the momentum from the return of Yordan Alvarez and re-acquisition of Justin Verlander to a 18–11 record since the All-Star Break, while the Marlins trade deadline additions of Josh Bell and Jake Burger have yet to stop Miami’s 10–18 second half skid.
Getting the start for the Houston Astros in the second game of this series is Cristian Javier. Javier has had an underwhelming season for Houston this year, as the success he experienced with his Fastball last season has not carried over to 2023. Generating a Whiff Rate of 27.3% and .274 xwOBA on the offering last season, the Fastball has generated a 25.6% Whiff Rate and .349 xwOBA this season, which many observers suspect is due to the 1.0 MPH drop in average velocity on the offering from last season. The performance of Javier’s secondary pitches have also declined this season as well.
Cristian Javier’s pitch arsenal consists of four pitches: a Four Seamer, a Slider, a Curveball, and a Changeup. According to Run Values, Javier’s Four Seamer has been his most productive pitch this season, while FanGraphs’s Stuff+ believes that only the Slider grades as an above-average pitch.
Javier utilizes his Four Seamer, Slider, and Curveball to right-handed hitters, while only utilizing his Changeup against left-handed hitters. Given the flat Vertical Approach Angle on his Four Seamer, Javier tends to utilize the pitch to generate Whiffs at the top of the strike zone. Javier prefers to utilize his Four Seamer on 1st pitch and when he’s behind to right-handed hitters, while he utilizes both his Four Seamer and Slider in these scenarios to left-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, Javier will typically mix in his Curveball only when he’s in two-strike counts.
As shown by the table above, the Marlins have been pretty balanced against Cristian Javier’s pitch types this season. Miami’s lineup as a whole has performed well against Four Seamers and Curveballs this season, while the team has struggled against Sliders in regards to Whiff Rate and Hard Hit Rate. The team’s 58% Ground Ball Rate against right-handed Changeups this season indicates that this offering should be used in potential double play situations, particularly to left-handed hitters.
Starting Lineup Scouting Report:
Important Notes:
Jorge Soler struggles on up-and-in Fastballs when he’s behind in counts, with a 66% Whiff Rate in this part of the strike zone. Soler also has difficulty on low-and-away Sliders when he’s behind in counts, with a 54% Whiff Rate on Sliders in this area of the strike zone.
Despite being able to hit seemingly anything, Luis Arráez has a weakness on low-and-away Fastballs. Arráez currently has a .040 SLG and 30% Whiff Rate on pitches in this part of the zone.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. loves to swing at Fastballs up-and-in in all counts, especially when he is ahead in counts, making attacking him on the outer-third of the plate the best course of action. Chisholm has also shown a severe weakness against Curveballs.
Jesús Sánchez has struggled on low-and-away Changeups, with a 35% Whiff Rate and .040 SLG on pitches in this area of the strike zone.
Swinging the bat is one thing that Jake Burger does a lot of, especially at upstairs Fastballs. Burger has swung at every upstairs Fastball he has seen when he’s ahead in the count, and frequently swings at them when he’s behind as well.
Joey Wendle frequently hits ground balls on low-and-away Fastballs and Sliders when he’s behind in the count. Attacking him with these pitches, especially with runners on base, would be the best course of action to induce a ground ball and/or double play.
Base Running Scouting Report:
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard. Statistics as of the end of play on August 10th.