Scouting Report: How Logan Gilbert Can Attack The San Diego Padres
(8/8/23) How Logan Gilbert can utilize his impressive pitch arsenal to shut down the San Diego Padres star-studded lineup.
Originally published on Medium on August 8, 2023.
The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners are two teams that have under-performed expectations so far this season. With an emerging young core, the Seattle Mariners were expected to “take the next step” after clinching a playoff berth last season, and the offseason signing of Xander Bogaerts and return of Fernando Tatís Jr. made the San Diego Padres the pre-season National League favorites in the eyes of many observers. These two teams kick-off a two-game series on Tuesday, which both teams hope will spark some momentum for a late-season push for a Postseason berth.
Getting the start for the Seattle Mariners in the first game of this series is Logan Gilbert. Gilbert has continued to develop his pitch arsenal this season, replacing his Changeup with a Splitter which has allowed for him to generate more Whiffs, increasing his Strikeout Rate to 23.9%. Gilbert has also shown better command of his pitches this season, lowering his Walk Rate to 4.5%. These adjustments have resulted in Gilbert pitching to a 3.86 ERA (3.63 FIP) and 2.5 WAR over 22 starts this season.
Logan Gilbert’s pitch arsenal consists of four pitches: a Four Seamer, a Slider, a Curveball, and a Splitter. According to Run Values and FanGraphs’s Stuff+ model, Gilbert’s Slider has been his best pitch this season. Stuff+ also believes that the Curveball has above shape, while the Splitter has delivered excellent results despite possessing league-average shape.
Gilbert utilizes all four pitches in his arsenal to both left and right handed hitters, predominantly utilizing the Fastball and Slider to right-handed hitters, while upping the usage of his Four Seamer to 44.5% against left-handed hitters. Gilbert tends to utilize his Curveball when he is ahead in counts, and his Splitter in two-strike counts.
As shown by the table above, the Padres have had difficulty producing against Splitters from right-handed pitchers so far this season, notably producing a .233 wOBA and 60% Ground Ball Rate against the offering. The Padres lineup as a whole also struggles to make hard contact against right-handed Curveballs, producing a 31.4% Hard Hit Rate and 44.3% Ground Ball Rate against the pitch. Since Gilbert predominantly utilizes these pitches when he’s ahead in the count, it appears that Gilbert may have success accumulating strikeouts against the Padres lineup. Padres hitters are really good against right-handed Four Seamers, producing a .342 wOBA, .256 ISO, and 46.6% Hard Hit Rate against the offering.
Scouting Report:
Important Notes:
Avoid Four Seamers middle-middle at all costs to Fernando Tatís Jr. Tatís is currently slugging .440 with a .280 ISO on Four Seamers over the heart of the plate.
Juan Soto loves to swing at up-and-away Four Seamers, especially when he is behind in counts. Whiff Rate of 37% on up-and-away Four Seamers when he is behind in the count. Soto will make you pay if the Four Seamer misses down-and-away.
Splitters have been a major weakness for Manny Machado this season. Attacking him with low-and-in Splitters when he’s behind in counts will be the most effective way to minimize his production.
Xander Bogaerts also has had serious difficulty with Splitters this season, currently possessing a wOBA of .000 with a 42.1% Whiff Rate against the pitch.
Jake Cronenworth has frequently hit ground balls on low-and-away Splitters and Sliders when he is behind in counts. Attack him with these pitches, especially when there are runners on base.
Since joining the San Diego Padres, Gary Sánchez has swung at almost every Four Seamer up-in-the-zone. Sánchez struggles to make contact on Four Seamers up-and-in in all counts.
Similar to Cronenworth, Trent Grisham produces weak contact on low-and-away Splitters and Sliders when he’s behind in counts. Grisham also frequently Whiffs at Four Seamers up-in-the-zone in all counts.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard. Data in the Scouting Report is as of the end of play on July 30th.