Scouting Report: How Zach Eflin Can Attack The Philadelphia Phillies
(7/4/23) Zach Eflin faces his former team for the first time as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Originally published on Medium on July 4, 2023.
One of the most surprising signings of this past offseason was the Tampa Bay Rays signing of Zach Eflin to a three year, $40M contract, the largest deal given to a free agent in Tampa Bay Rays history. In 15 starts so far this season, Eflin has done nothing but impress, currently possessing a 3.29 ERA while striking out 25.6% of batters faced, walking 4.2% of opposing batters, and is on pace to have his best season of his career by measure of FanGraphs’s Wins Above Replacement (currently at 2.2 fWAR). This start will be Eflin’s first appearance against his former team, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Zach Eflin’s pitch arsenal consists of six pitches: a Sinker, Curveball, Cutter, Changeup, Four-Seamer, and a Slider. According to Run Values, the Sinker and the Curveball are Eflin’s most productive pitches, while FanGraphs Stuff+ believes that the Cutter is also one of Eflin’s best pitches. Eflin utilizes his Sinker, Cutter, Curveball, and Four Seamer to all hitters, while he utilizes his Changeup primarily to left-handed hitters and his Slider primarily to right-handed hitters.
When Eflin is behind in counts, he frequently utilizes his Cutter to left-handed hitters, and his Sinker to both left and right handed hitters. With two strikes, Eflin likes to utilize his Sinker and Changeup to left-handed hitters, and his Curveball to both left and right handed hitters.
Philadelphia Phillies — Projected Starting Lineup:
Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Nick Castellanos:
After a slow start to the season, Kyle Schwarber has been back to his power-hitting ways at the top of the lineup for the Phillies. As a “three true outcome hitter”, Schwarber is capable of producing a lot of power while exhibiting excellent plate discipline, at the expense of a high strikeout rate. Schwarber has a lot of success against Sinkers, as shown by a high wOBA and Hard Hit Rate against the pitch, and I would only feel comfortable pitching one to Schwarber unless trying to sneak in a backdoor Sinker for a 1st pitch strike. Schwarber takes outside Curveballs on the 1st pitch, and chases them when he’s behind in the count. I would expect Eflin to attack him with upstairs Fastballs with 2 strikes, as Schwarber will chase them when he’s behind in the count.
Trea Turner has struggled in his first season with the Phillies, currently possessing a wRC+ under 100 for the first time besides his debut season. Turner has struggled on Curveballs down in the zone (especially when he’s behind in the count), and I expect Eflin to utilize this pitch frequently against Turner. Upstairs Fastballs have also given Trea Turner difficulty so far this season, as he frequently swings at Fastballs when he’s ahead in the count and often Whiffs when they are located at the top of the zone.
Nick Castellanos has been off to a hot start to the season for the Phillies, and he has particularly been productive on Fastballs against right-handed pitching. Castellanos can be challenged on an up-and-in Fastball when he’s ahead in the count, but I would otherwise recommend that Eflin avoid utilizing his Fastball in this matchup. Castellanos struggles on low-and-away Sinkers, and chases low-and-away Cutters when he is behind in counts.
Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Bryson Stott:
Coming off of a remarkably quick recovery from Tommy John Surgery, Bryce Harper has yet to completely regain the power he has displayed in past seasons for Washington and Philadelphia. Harper has been chasing high Fastballs on 1st pitch and when he’s behind in counts, and I expect Eflin to attack Harper with upstairs Fastballs. Harper also frequently takes outside Curveballs when he’s ahead in the count and struggles on down-and-in Curveballs when he is behind in counts.
J.T. Realmuto is very patient on the 1st pitch, and he almost never swings at outside Curveballs or low-and-away Sinkers to start an at-bat. Realmuto has also struggled on upstairs Fastballs — up-and-away when ahead in the count, and up-and-in when behind in the count. Realmuto also struggles on low-and-in Sinkers when he is behind in the count, often resulting in a Whiff or weak contact.
Similar to J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott is also very patient on the 1st pitch, and he almost never swings at outside Curveballs or Fastballs to begin an at-bat. Stott struggles on Fastballs up-and-away in any count, so Eflin should have success against Stott as long as he is able to locate his Four Seamer. Up-and-away Cutters are also a weakness for Stott when he’s behind in the count.
Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm, and Kody Clemens:
Currently possessing a wRC+ of 120, Brandon Marsh’s offensive success has been a revelation for the Phillies so far this season. Marsh will take outside Curveballs and backdoor Cutters on the 1st pitch, and will also take up-and-away Cutters when he’s ahead in the count. Marsh has been very productive against down-away Changeups, so utilizing an up-and-away Fastball will be a more effective way to get him out when he has 2 strikes.
Alec Bohm takes outside Sinkers on the 1st pitch, and chases up-and-away Sinkers when he is behind in the count. Eflin can induce weak contact with Bohm by utilizing a downstairs Fastball when Bohm is ahead in the count, and a Curveball when Bohm is behind in the count.
Kody Clemens has struggled so far in his first season in Philadelphia, currently possessing a wRC+ of 73. Clemens doesn’t swing at outside Curveballs on the 1st pitch and has a tendency to frequently chase upstairs Fastballs in all counts.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard.