Taking a Deeper Look at Some Underrated Prospects

(8/29/22) Three Minor League prospects that can make a Major League impact in the near-future.

Originally published on Medium on August 29, 2022.

Here are three Minor League prospects that I believe are underrated by prospect ranking services, such as MLB.com Prospect Pipeline and FanGraphs, that can be contributors to a Major League team in the near-future.

Edouard Julien (Minnesota — 2B, L/R):

Drafted in the 18th round of the 2019 MLB draft by the Minnesota Twins, Edouard Julien has been perhaps the best offensive player in the Twins farm system this season. Currently ranked the 17th-best prospect in Minnesota’s farm system according to FanGraphs, Julien is producing offensively at a pace that should make him the front-runner for the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year. So far spending all of 2022 AA, Julien has hit .286/.431/.490 (141 wRC+), with 16 home runs, 56 runs batted in, and 15 stolen bases for the Witchita Wind Surge this season. Julien has also possessed great plate discipline throughout his minor league career, with a fantastic walk rate of 19.7% to go along with a 25.0% strikeout rate this season.

At 23 years old, Edouard Julien has all of the tools necessary in order to become a all-around offensive contributor in my opinion. One element of Julien’s Minor League career that I am impressed by is his battled ball profile, which consists of hitting the ball to all fields and a consistently high line-drive rate.

While line-drive rates can be difficult to project over the long run, if Julien is able to maintain a LD rate of at least 27% when he reaches the Major Leagues, then this should bode well for his long-term prospects as a Major League player. Another aspect of Edouard Julien’s skillset that impressed me was his constantly high walk rates, over 19% at every Minor League that he has played at. Given this high walk rate, it can be assumed that Julien also as a low O-Swing%. Not only is this an indicator that he is able to consistently get on-base via drawing walks, but the elite discipline will make it easier for Julien to make adjustments throughout his professional career such as adding more power to his swing. Given his batted-ball profile, Julien appears to currently be at his maximum offensive efficiency with a 3.7% home tun rate, however it is feasible for him to add more power if he lifts and pulls the ball more (at the expense of solid in-play contact).

Defensively, Julien is a second baseman and he has played exclusively at that position this season. In 2021, the Twins put him at a variety of positions, including Left Field and First Base, but have decided to abandon using him as a utility defender this season. In addition to Julien’s elite ability to get on-base, he has displayed impressive speed during his time in the Minor Leagues, with 34 stolen bases last season and 15 stolen bases so far this season. Overall, I see Edouard Julien as a player who can be an all-around, everyday second baseman for a Major League team and deserves to be ranked higher than #17 in the Minnesota Twins farm system.

Niko Kavadas (Boston — 1B, L/R):

Drafted in the 11th round of the 2021 MLB draft by the Boston Red Sox, Niko Kavadas has been one of the best offensive players in all of the minor leagues this season. Currently ranked the 27th-best prospect in the Red Sox farm system according to FanGraphs, Kavadas has had a level of offensive production in the Minors this year that should propel him into the Top 15 of Boston’s farm system by next season. Spending the 2022 season at A, High-A, and AA; Kavadas has hit .290/.457/.588 (182 wRC+) with 25 home runs and 78 runs batted in this season. Niko Kavadas also exhibits excellent plate discipline, with a walk rate of 20.6% to go along with a 26.9% strikeout rate this season. Kavadas’s primary attribute during his professional career has been power, which has been rated a 55/60 and 60/60 by FanGraphs for Game Power and Raw Power, respectively. While being a 23-year old playing A and High-A ball might inflate his numbers at these levels, his plate discipline and batted ball profile indicates that his offensive ability is no fluke.

Throughout the 2022 season, Kavadas has had a nearly equal LD/GB/FB distribution, however it should be noted that after his promotion to High-A, a lot of fly balls that Kavadas was hitting previously turned into ground balls. As would be expected of a power hitter, Kavadas pulls the ball around 48% of the time, and hits the ball up the middle and to the opposite field around 26% each.

Defensively, Niko Kavadas has been average at First Base, and he projects to be a Designated Hitter in the future due to his lack of mobility. Looking solely at his offensive production in the Minor Leagues, which is among the game’s best throughout all levels, it appears that at minimum, Niko Kavadas can produce at a league-average level once promoted to the Majors. If he is able to maintain this level of consistency at AA and AAA, then it is not out of the realm of possibility that Kavadas can be a Designated Hitter in a starting lineup for a Major League team in the near-future.

Adam Macko (Seattle — LHP):

Drafted in the 7th round of the 2019 MLB draft by the Seattle Mariners, Adam Macko is seeking to become only the third Slovenian-born player to play in the Major Leagues. Currently ranked the 9th-best prospect in the Mariners farm system according to FanGraphs, Macko possesses a Fastball, Slider, and Curveball which have generated plenty of strikeouts during his time in the Minors. Spending all of his 2022 season at High-A, Macko has pitched to a strikeout rate of 35.9%, walk rate of 12.0%, and ground-ball rate of 48.1% in 8 games started (38.1 IP) for the Everett AquaSox this season. Macko is currently sidelined for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury, and has not pitched for Everett since July 23rd. Despite the small sample size, Macko has been able to generate a lot of strikeouts throughout his professional career, and this is evident simply by watching him pitch.

According to FanGraphs, Macko’s Fastball, Slider, and Curveball grade at a 45/55, 55/55, and 55/60, respectively. Besides the injuries, the biggest issue that has affected Macko during his career has been his command, as he has posted a walk rate of over 11.5% at every Minor League level. Given the lack of substantial publicly-available pitch tracking data, I am not able to accurately diagnose the root cause of this issue. If mechanical issues are not the primary factor behind the lack of command, I would look at altering Macko’s pitch distribution and/or add a fourth pitch to his arsenal if I had access to that information. Regardless, the addition of a changeup or lefty splitter to his pitch arsenal, which is lacking in pitches with arm-side movement (only his Fastball currently achieves this) will surely generate more whiffs and more ground-balls, only making Adam Macko’s pitch arsenal more impressive. If he can refine his command and resolve his injury concerns, I can envision Adam Macko becoming a valuable part of a Major League team’s pitching staff in the near future.

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