The Key Changes Josiah Gray Needs to Make to Realize his Potential
(5/10/23) A few adjustments to his pitch arsenal can help Josiah Gray realize his potential as a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Originally published on Medium on May 10, 2023.
Since being acquired in the blockbuster Max Scherzer-Trea Turner trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers at the 2021 trade deadline, Josiah Gray has been expected to develop into an ace for the Washington Nationals as they seek to rebuild their roster back into championship contention. Despite these expectations, Gray has struggled in his first two seasons with his new organization, walking batters and allowing home runs at rates above league-average. With a few adjustments to his pitch arsenal, Josiah Gray can further realize his potential as a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Washington Nationals.
Overview:
Josiah Gray’s pitch arsenal predominantly features four pitches: a Slider, Four Seamer, Curveball, and Cutter. While FanGraphs’s Stuff+ believes that most of these pitches have below league-average shapes, Run Values indicate that Gray’s pitch arsenal has been performing well so far this season.
As shown by the table above, Gray’s Slider has been his best pitch this season, with a Run Value of -3, 34.3% Whiff Rate, and .230 xwOBA. The Slider has also been very successful at generating weak contact, with a Hard Hit Rate of only 14.7%. Gray has introduced a new Cutter this season, and while the pitch does allow a high xwOBA, he has been successful at generating Whiffs with the pitch. With a few adjustments to his pitch arsenal, Josiah Gray can come closer to realizing his potential as a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Washington Nationals.
Adjustment #1: Increase Cutter Usage
One adjustment to his pitch arsenal that Josiah Gray needs to make in order to realize his potential is to increase the usage of his Cutter. As mentioned earlier, Gray has added a Cutter to his pitch arsenal this season, and in a recent interview with MLB Network, stated that he added to pitch to have another option to throw against left-handed hitters.
As shown by the movement plot above, Gray’s new Cutter has a very similar shape to his Slider. These two pitches are so similar, that the Cutter can essentially be described as a faster version of his Slider. This is typically an indicator that one of these pitches needs to be removed/tweaked from a pitcher’s arsenal, and I would usually suggest eliminating the slower pitch, in this case the Slider, from the pitch arsenal. However, given how both of these pitches perform against opposing batters, broken down by batter handedness, I am comfortable with both of these pitches remaining in Josiah Gray’s pitch arsenal moving forward.
As shown by the table above, Gray’s Cutter has been more successful at generating Chases and Ground Balls against left-handed hitters than his Slider has this season, and he has also been able to locate the pitch in the zone better. Conversely, Gray has been able to generate more In-Zone Whiffs and Ground Balls against right-handed hitters with his Slider. The success of both of these pitches so far this season is why I believe both can remain in Gray’s arsenal moving forward.
When compared to his Fastball, Gray’s Cutter is the better pitch against left-handed hitters, with a much higher Chase Rate and Ground Ball Rate than his Fastball. Against right-handed hitters, the Cutter has a higher Chase Rate and Zone Rate, however I believe the higher In-Zone Whiff Rate and Ground Ball rate give the edge to the Fastball.
Given these factors, I believe that Josiah Gray needs to utilize his Cutter more against both right-handed and (especially) left-handed hitters. Since the pitch is more effective at generating Ground Balls, I believe the usage of the Cutter should be increased in place of the Fastball and Slider to left-handed hitters. Given the pitch’s general effectiveness, I believe the usage of the Cutter should be increased to right-handed hitters as well.
Adjustment #2: Increase Extension
Another adjustment that Josiah Gray needs to make in order to realize his potential is to increase the amount of extension he creates in his delivery. As mentioned earlier, Stuff+ is generally not a fan of Josiah Gray’s pitch arsenal, despite Run Values indicating that all 4 pitches have performed, at least, at a league-average level. In my opinion, this discrepancy can primarily be attributed to two reasons: the fact that Gray is a pronator, preventing him from generating large amounts of “sweep” with his Slider, and due to the extreme lack of extension that Gray generates with his delivery.
As defined by MLB.com, “Extension quantifies exactly how much closer a pitcher’s release point is to home plate.” More extension is generally better for a pitcher, as it makes pitches appear as if they have more velocity when approaching the plate, and Stuff+ models frequently grade pitchers with more extension higher than pitchers with lesser extension. While pitchers with more extension tend to perform better or have more potential, pitchers like Luis Castillo and Julio Urías are considered two of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball despite having low extension.
Since he has entered the Major Leagues, Josiah Gray has generated very poor extension with his pitch delivery. If Gray were able to increase the extension he is able to generate with his pitch delivery, then the Stuff+ grades as well as the results he produces with his pitches would in all likelihood improve.
The main downside to this issue is that most organizations have not been able to find a way to successfully improve pitcher’s extensions. Since it appears that the Nationals player development does not excel in this area, the best way for Josiah Gray to improve his extension would be to train with an outside facility over the winter that has more insight into this area of player development. If Gray is able to increase his extension, it will greatly help in the effectiveness of his pitch arsenal, if he is not able to improve in this area, he still has the potential to develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter, however his overall ceiling may be limited.
Adjustment #3: Add Splitter (see revision):
Another adjustment that Josiah Gray should make to his pitch arsenal would be to add a new pitch, a Splitter, to his repertoire. While Gray currently has a Fastball, Curveball, and Cutter which are effective to left-handed hitters, adding a pitch with arm-side movement such as a Splitter would help generate more Whiffs and weak contact while also increasing the overall effectiveness of his pitch arsenal.
Revision (9/23): Given my recent extensive research into Splitter usage in Major League Baseball, I now believe that adding a Changeup rather than a Splitter would have been a more successful approach for Josiah Gray. For further reading, check out my Splitter article below:
The Next Pitching Revolution: Why The Splitter Is Poised For A Comeback
Concluding Thoughts:
With a few adjustments to his pitch arsenal, Josiah Gray can further realize his potential as a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Washington Nationals. Increasing the usage of his Cutter will further optimize his pitch usage in order to more effectively face left-handed hitters, increasing the amount of extension created in his delivery will allow for all of his pitches to see an increase in effectiveness, and adding a Splitter will allow for Gray to generate more Whiffs and weak contact against left-handed hitters. In conclusion, Josiah Gray has been off to a promising start to the 2023 season, and with a few adjustments to his pitch arsenal, he will move closer to his potential as a top-of-the-rotation starter when the Washington Nationals are ready to compete in the National League East again.
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