Three Players Who Can Increase Their Power Output in 2023
(11/9/22) Identifying undervalued players, and the adjustments they need to make in order to hit for more power.
Originally published on Medium on November 9, 2022.
The 2022–2023 Major League Baseball offseason is here and with the Hot Stove starting to heat up, teams are beginning to identify potential offseason acquisitions to target this winter. The ability to identify and acquire undervalued players is a skill that every front office around the league seeks to improve upon, as offseasons are not only won or lost by the “flashy” trades and free agent signings, but also by the work that is done acquiring lesser-known (and often lesser-paid) players.
The ability to identify offensive players who can further tap into their power potential is one way teams will look to acquire undervalued players. Isaac Paredes of the Tampa Bay Rays and Matt Carpenter of the New York Yankees are two instances of players in 2022 who were able to tap into power potential that many other teams and observers believed was unattainable at first glance.
With home runs being the most valuable attribute a player can provide to their team offensively, it is imperative that teams are able to identify players who have potential to increase their power outputs, in order to maximize the value an individual player can provide for their team. This article seeks to identify players who possess traits of above-average power, but need to refine some elements of their offensive approach in order to reach their full potential.
Methodology:
In order to evaluate a player’s power potential I will analyze 5 variables that are reflective of how many home runs a specific player has hit. These variables are O-Swing%, Maximum Exit Velocity, Pull%, Fly Ball%, and Barrel/BBE%. In order to have a better understanding of how these metrics affect a player’s ability to hit home runs, I have constructed the following table which displays the interquartile range of the mentioned metrics, broken down by players with home run rates of at least 3%, 4%, and 5%.
With the assumption that a player’s O-Swing% and Maximum Exit Velocity are not easily improved upon from year to year, in order to identify players with untapped power potential I will analyze players who have an O-Swing% between 27.4% — 36.3% and a Maximum Exit Velocity of at least 109.4, who can adjust their Pull, Fly Ball, or Barrel rates in order to increase their power output in 2023.
Yu Chang (INF) — Boston
Claimed off waivers in September by the Boston Red Sox after being designated for assignment by Tampa Bay, Yu Chang is one player who has potential to hit for more power next season. Signed as an international free agent by Cleveland in 2013, Yu Chang has appeared in games for four Major League teams since making his debut in 2019. At age 27, Chang has not produced a wRC+ over 100 during a single season yet, however his batter ball profiles indicate that he is capable of hitting for more power in the future.
Comparing Chang’s batted ball statistics to the quartile statistics, I would expect Chang to already be a hitter capable of having a home run rate of around 3.5%. In 190 plate appearances last season, Chang produced a home run rate of 2.1%, which indicates that his power output last season could potentially have been an outlier and correct itself next season, assuming no changes in his batted ball profile. Regardless, Chang has the plate discipline, the maximum exit velocity, and the ability to pull the ball in the air necessary to become an above-average power hitter in the Major Leagues, and if he is able to hit for more Barrels next season it is not implausible to project a potential 4.0% HR rate season in 2023 for Yu Chang. Whether or not Chang has a place in the Boston Red Sox plans for the next season will be a development to keep an eye on throughout the offseason.
J.D. Davis (3B) — San Francisco
Traded to the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline last season, J.D. Davis is another player who has the potential to hit for more power next season. Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2014 Major League Baseball draft by the Houston Astros, Davis has shown the ability to generate exceptionally high exit velocity since making his Major League debut in 2017, and with a few refinements can become one of the top power hitters in all of baseball in 2023.
As evident by the table, J.D. Davis has an exceptional ability to hit for Barrels, and his 16.2% Barrel / BBE rate is ranked 9th among all qualified batters in 2022. Davis also exhibits great plate discipline and exit velocity, which translates well into hitting for power. One area where J.D Davis can improve for 2023 would be his ability to pull the ball in the air. With Pull% and Fly Ball% at 37.4% and 33.8% respectively, Davis pulls the ball in the air that is below the expectations of a player who produces a 3.0% HR rate. Producing a home run rate of 3.3% in 2022, if J.D. Davis is able to combine his excellent exit velocity and barrelling skills with the improved ability to hit the ball in the air more, J.D. Davis can become one of the most elite power hitters in all of Major League Baseball in 2023.
Alex Verdugo (OF) — Boston
Another player who has potential to hit for more power next season is Alex Verdugo of the Boston Red Sox. Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2014 Major League Baseball draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers, Verdugo has established himself as a solid contact hitter since being acquired by the Red Sox as a part of the Mookie Betts trade. Since 2021, Verdugo has hit for at least .280 in both seasons and has been able to keep his strikeout rate under 16%. With refinements to his approach in 2023, Verdugo can add the power necessary for him to fulfill his potential as a cornerstone of the next contending Boston Red Sox team.
As shown by the table above, Alex Verdugo has exhibited excellent plate discipline over the past year with an O-Swing% of 29.0%, and has the Maximum Exit Velocity necessary to hit for power at a consistent rate. Areas that Verdugo needs to improve upon are increasing the amount of Barrels he is able to produce, and being able to pull the ball in the air more often. As evident by his spray charts, Verdugo has a great ability to hit the ball to all fields, and I believe a more conscious effort to pull the ball in the air is not only possible, but may in turn allow Verdugo to barrel the ball more. If Verdugo can pull the ball around 40% of the time next season and lift the ball in the air more, I believe that a 3.0%/25 home run season is entirely possible next season for Alex Verdugo.
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