Three Prospects Primed For A Major League Call-Up This Season
(8/26/23) A deep dive into three prospects poised to make their mark in the Majors this season.
Originally published on Medium on August 26, 2023.
As the Major League Baseball season barrels towards its end, organizations are beginning to eye potential Major League call-ups, either to add reinforcements for a Postseason run or to better understand what their starting lineups will look like next season. With Major League rosters expanding from 26 to 28 players on September 1st, it is possible that a large quantity of exciting prospects will be making their Major League debuts in the near-future.
The terms agreed to in the 2022–2026 Collective Bargaining Agreement regarding compensatory draft picks also incentive Major League teams to call-up their top prospects during the later part of the season. As exemplified by the Seattle Mariners being awarded the 29th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, the new CBA allows teams to earn a “Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick” if a player with 60 days or fewer of Major League service who is included on a preseason Top 100 prospect list (by two or more of Baseball America, ESPN, MLB.com) is promoted and finishes top 3 in MVP or Cy Young voting, or is awarded Rookie of the Year before he is eligible for arbitration.
Since being called up in mid-August through the end of the season would result in a player earning less than 60 days of Major League service, top prospects would not lose the ability to generate a PPI pick for their Major League organization if they are called up at this point in the season. In this article, I will take a deeper dive into three prospects who I believe have the potential to be called-up to their team’s Major League roster before the end of the season.
Note: In this article, I will be utilizing the Minor League data available on FanGraphs, as well as Minor League batted-ball and plate discipline data compiled by Thomas Nestico on his Patreon. Statcast data is only publicly available at the AAA level, so data regarding the lower levels of the Minors is dependent on the accuracy of Minor League Baseball’s pitch tracking system.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF) — Chicago:
Pete Crow-Armstrong in the Chicago Cubs organization is one prospect that I believe could be called-up before the end of the season. With the Cubs contending for a Wild Card spot, Crow-Armstrong can, at minimum, give Chicago a defensive boost in the outfield as they make a push at their first Postseason appearance since 2020.
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s outfield defense is the strongest element of his game, and he projects to be one of the best defensive Center Fielders in all of Major League Baseball once he is promoted. As shown by the video above, Crow-Armstrong runs very efficient routes on fly balls and has a strong arm that can make accurate throws when playing Center Field. In addition, Crow-Armstrong also demonstrates his quick sprint speed which not only allows for him to cover more ground in the outfield, but also can transfer to stolen base potential. Calling up Pete Crow-Armstrong to play Center Field (and permanently moving Cody Bellinger to 1st Base and Jeimer Candariero to 3rd Base) would instantly improve the Chicago Cubs defense in the outfield, and Crow-Armstrong’s defensive abilities project to be good enough to allow him to still contribute net-positive value even if his offense struggles in his first taste of Major League action.
As a hitter, opinions on Pete Crow-Armstrong’s ceiling vary, with major questions regarding whether or not his hit tool is going to hold up against Major League pitching. At AAA this season, Crow-Armstrong has demonstrated good plate discipline, with a 37.1% O-Swing resulting in a 11.1% Walk Rate. I believe that Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline skill will translate well to the next level, and I would expect him to walk at a league-average rate when called up with potential to produce double-digit Walk Rates in the future. Crow-Armstrong has also displayed his increased power this season, generating ISO’s of over .235 at both AA and AAA while producing a 10.5% Barrel Rate at AAA.
Questions do persist about how well Crow-Armstrong’s hit tool will hold up at the Major League level. FanGraphs’s scouting report on Crow-Armstrong describes concerning whether he can consistently make contact on pitches at the top of the strike zone due to the fact that his swing is bottom hand-driven, resulting in a swing with a steeper attack angle that performs well on pitches downstairs but is vulnerable at the top of the zone. These concerns appear to be legitimate as both videos posted above do not include video of Crow-Armstrong making solid contact on pitches upstairs. If true, Major League pitchers could immediately expose Crow-Armstrong’s weakness in this area of the zone and attack him with upstairs Fastballs, causing his Strikeout Rate to increase once promoted to the Major League level.
While I do believe that these concerns are credible, I do not believe that this dooms Crow-Armstrong’s potential as a hitter. Crow-Armstrong’s swing has a short and quick path to the ball which I believe will make it easier for him to make adjustments to at least improve his bat-to-ball skills in this area of the zone. Will Pete Crow-Armstrong be exposed in this part of the zone early in his career? Probably — but if he is able to make the adjustment of at least making contact on these pitches, he will be able to dampen his strikeout rate and potentially increase his batting average on balls in play (due to his quick speed on the basepaths as well). Even if he is only able to hit at a near league-average level, inserting Pete Crow-Armstrong into the starting lineup would be a net-positive move for the Cubs, based on Crow-Armstrong’s defensive value alone.
Ceddanne Rafaela (OF) — Boston:
Currently on the fringes of the American League Wild Card race, I believe that Ceddanne Rafaela of the Boston Red Sox is another prospect that I believe could get called up before the end of the season. Similar to Crow-Armstrong, Rafaela has combined elite defensive ability with questions about his offensive potential throughout his Minor League career.
Ceddanne Rafaela has been on an offensive tear since being called up to Worcester Red Sox on June 26th, posting a slash line of .304/.365/.609 (134 wRC+) with a .304 ISO in 45 games at the AAA level. Rafaela’s power surge has been particularly noteworthy, as he only produced a .147 ISO in 60 games at AA before his promotion. An 11.3% Barrel Rate at AAA is a positive indicator that Rafaela has the underlying attributes to be able to hit for power at the Major League level, however a 106.4 MPH Max. Exit Velocity indicates to me that his Barrel Rate is likely to regress over time and limits his power potential at the Major League level.
With a swing-happy approach, there are concerns that Ceddanne Rafaela’s lack of plate discipline will limit his offensive potential at the Major League level. Rafaela has produced a 5.4% Walk Rate and 21.2% Strikeout Rate so far at AAA this season, which indicates that he will most likely Walk and Strikeout at levels below league-average once promoted to the Majors. Rafaela currently has a 55.3% Swing Rate and 43.8% O-Swing at AAA, which is comparable to Javier Báez’s 55.8% Swing Rate and 45.1% O-Swing with the Detroit Tigers this season. Given these underlying metrics, it can be expected that Rafaela’s offensive production at the Major League level will be quite volatile, similar to what Báez has experienced at the plate throughout his Major League career.
As the worst defensive team in Major League Baseball this season by measure of Outs Above Average, the Boston Red Sox defense would benefit greatly from the addition of Ceddanne Rafaela. With Boston’s outfield currently consisting of a solid offensive mix of Masataka Yoshida, Adam Duvall, and Alex Verdugo, I can envision a scenario where Rafaela is called-up and used as a late-inning defensive substitution for the Red Sox this season. Utilizing Rafaela in a defense-heavy role this season would allow for Boston to utilize him in a manner that hides his weaknesses (in the short-term), while continuing his offensive development to better prepare him for a potential starting role in the Red Sox outfield in 2024.
Jackson Holliday (SS) — Baltimore:
On pace to win their first American League East division championship since 2014, the Baltimore Orioles could call up Jackson Holliday in order to bolster their roster for a deep postseason run. While Holliday is not expected to be called up to the Major League roster until 2024, reports have indicated that the Orioles have not completely ruled out promoting Holliday this season.
Jackson Holliday has done nothing but produce at every Minor League level he has played at this season, currently producing a slash line of .333/.425/.528 (158 wRC+) with a .194 ISO in 27 games at AA this season. Holliday has also showcased his excellent plate discipline during his stint at AA, currently producing a 14.2% Walk Rate and 18.1% Strikeout Rate. Holliday pretty much checks off all the boxes as a hitter, as he has shown a consistent ability to hit the ball to all fields, has a loose and fluid swing, and it can be expected that he will continue to grow into more power, considering he is currently only 19 years old. The only question I have about Holiday offensively is that he does “step out” during his stride during some swings, which can potentially create a weakness for him making contact on off-speed and breaking pitches on the outer-third of the plate. This does not appear to be a consistent issue for Holiday at the moment however, and I believe that this issue will be fully resolved before he joins the Major League roster.
Defensively, Holliday has played at Shortstop throughout the entirety of his Minor League career and Gunnar Henderson can easily move over to the 3rd Base to allow Holliday to play Shortstop when he reaches the Major League level. If Baltimore is convinced that they can make a run at the World Series this postseason, I would not be surprised if the Orioles promote Holliday to the Major League roster in the near-future. At a minimum, Holliday would be able to put the ball in play and produce at a league-average level given his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, while the best-case scenario would entail Holliday immediately becoming a force in a World Series-contending lineup for the Baltimore Orioles. Whether he’s promoted to the Major League roster this season or next, Jackson Holliday projects to be a perennial All-Star and an important piece of the Baltimore Orioles young core.
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