Trade Deadline Target: Brenton Doyle
(7/14/23) With excellent defense and untapped offensive potential, Brenton Doyle can be an intriguing trade target for contending teams this season.
Originally published on Medium on July 14, 2023.
With the conclusion of the MLB Draft and the trade deadline of August 1st fast approaching, Major League Baseball organizations are looking for potential trade candidates that they can target in order to improve their roster to make a run at the postseason. One underrated player that I believe contending teams should target at the trade deadline is Colorado Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle. Currently producing 5 Outs Above Average in center field with elite, 98th percentile Sprint Speed, Doyle can at a minimum be a defensive specialist and pinch runner for a contending team, and his promising batted-ball metrics indicate that he might have more offensive potential that he can tap into in the future.
Overview:
In 58 games played for the Colorado Rockies this season, Brenton Doyle has slashed .213/.271/.356 (54 wRC+) with 6 home runs and 22 RBIs over 193 plate appearances. As mentioned earlier, Doyle has provided excellent center field defense for Colorado (ranked 9th among qualified center fielders) and has utilized his elite sprint speed to steal 12 bases this season.
While Doyle has been excellent in the field and on the basepaths for Colorado, his offensive production has been incredibly underwhelming, as wRC+ indicates that Doyle’s offensive production this season has been 46% below league average. While Doyle has displayed an ability to hit for some power, as evident by his Barrel Rate, his high Strikeout Rate and low Walk Rate has limited his overall offensive output.
Player Comparisons: The Next Brandon Marsh or Jose Siri?:
At the 2022 Trade Deadline, two of the most impactful players traded were Brandon Marsh and Jose Siri, who were acquired by the Phillies and the Rays respectively. Both players were atop the leaderboard for Outs Above Average in Center Field at the time of the trade deadline and filled holes in each team’s roster ahead of their playoff push. Similar to Doyle, both players had underwhelming offensive metrics at the time of their trades but had underlying batted-ball metrics which indicated they could improve upon their current offensive outputs in the future.
As shown by the table above, Brenton Doyle’s current offensive metrics are very similar to Jose Siri and Brandon Marsh’s when they were traded by their former teams last season. While Marsh’s higher wRC+ was driven primarily by a very high BABIP, all three players have similar Strikeout and Walk Rate, Hard Hit%, and Pulled Fly Ball%. Doyle has outperformed both Marsh and Siri in regards to Barrel%, which (as an indicator of power) explains why Doyle currently has an Isolated Power that is .20 than both Siri and Marsh at last season’s trade deadline.
A question one may ask while reading this article is why am I so focused on comparing Brenton Doyle to Jose Siri and Brandon Marsh? There are three reasons for this. First, they have similar defensive and offensive profiles at the time of their trades (in Doyle’s case: potential trade) as I have laid out already. Second, Marsh and Siri both had less than one full year of Major League service time at the time of their trades, similar to Doyle. Third and most importantly, Marsh and Siri have experienced breakouts at the plate this season, which indicates that Doyle might have untapped potential heading into the 2024 season. Let’s dive deeper into Brenton Doyle’s approach at the plate and identify areas of improvement which can help Doyle reach his full potential as an above-average to elite defensive outfielder with league-average (or more) offensive production.
Identifying Areas of Offensive Improvement:
There are a couple areas of improvement that Brenton Doyle should focus on in order to maximize his offensive potential. As shown by the table above, Doyle swings at a rate above the Major League average, particularly on pitches located in the strike zone. While it is encouraging that Doyle has shown an ability to chase pitches at a below-average rate, swinging at such a high rate in the strike zone indicates that Doyle might be too aggressive at the plate, resulting in a lower quality of contact on pitches in the strike zone.
Taking a simple look at his Swing% vs. Contact% on all pitches, Doyle has an apparent tendency to frequently swing and miss on pitches in the upper part of the strike zone. With many pitchers in Major League Baseball able to dominate with their Fastballs up in the zone in any count, this is a weakness that can easily be exploited by opposing pitchers and is a main reason why Doyle strikes out at a high rate, in my opinion.
Why does Doyle have such a weakness in the top of the strike zone? One solution would be to encourage Doyle to take more pitches in this area of the strike zone, as it is seemingly disadvantageous for him to swing at these pitches unless he is behind in the count.
I also believe that Doyle has a weakness in this area of the zone due to an inefficient hand movement in his load. In the videos attached below, it appears that Doyle constantly moves his hands downward in the loading process, making it much more difficult for him to attack pitches up in the zone due to the extra movement required to do so.
Video #1: 648cf438–0eaf-4c49–93da-26f148381fd6.mp4
Video #2: 7980127f-002e-42c8–92a6-f2ca42c5d7a1.mp4
The downward hand movement may look subtle to an unobservant eye, but given the struggles Doyle has experienced in the top of the strike zone, it makes sense that this might be the root cause of his struggles. I also examined Doyle’s swing path data on DK Willardson’s SwingGraphs website, and it appears that Doyle does not suffer from having an extreme vertical bat angle which indicates further that an inefficiency in his batting stance is a source of his offensive struggles.
I would recommend that if a team trades for Brenton Doyle, they should focus on minimizing the hand movement in the load phase of his swing so he is able to minimize the swing-and-miss he currently produces in the top part of the strike zone. In addition, it would also be beneficial if a team worked with Doyle to improve his swing decisions inside the strike zone, in order to further minimize his swing-and-miss as well as improve his overall quality of contact.
Conclusions:
Assuming the Rockies are willing to listen to trade offers for him, Brenton Doyle is a compelling trade deadline target for contending teams in need of an outfield upgrade. Despite his underwhelming offensive numbers, Doyle’s exceptional defensive skills and elite sprint speed make him a valuable asset in the field and on the basepaths, and comparisons to players like Brandon Marsh and Jose Siri, who experienced offensive breakouts after being traded last season, suggest that Doyle possesses untapped potential. By addressing certain areas of improvement, such as his aggressiveness at the plate and inefficient hand movement in his swing, Doyle could unlock his offensive capabilities and become an above-average to elite outfielder with league-average or better offensive production. For teams willing to invest in his development, Doyle represents an underrated trade candidate poised for an offensive breakout in the upcoming seasons, to complement his existing defensive abilities.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, SwingGraphs, and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard.