Trade Deadline Target: Jordan Hicks
(7/18/23) With a new Sweeper and Four Seamer, Jordan Hicks is an intriguing target for potential buyers at the trade deadline.
Originally published on Medium on July 18, 2023.
After winning the National League Central last season, the St. Louis Cardinals have been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2023 season, going 38–52 in the 1st half of the season, and are primed to be sellers at this season’s trade deadline. One player that Cardinals will certainly be listening to offers for will be reliever Jordan Hicks, who will be a free agent at the conclusion of this season. With a new Sweeper and Four Seamer in his pitch arsenal, Hicks has had a breakout season which has made him an intriguing target for buyers at the trade deadline.
Overview:
Jordan Hicks’s pitch arsenal currently features five pitches: a Sinker, Sweeper, Four Seamer, Slider, and Changeup. Run Values indicate that the Sinker is Hicks’s best pitch, while FanGraphs’s Stuff+ model believes that the Sliders and the Four Seamer are the best pitches in Hicks’s arsenal. While Run Values and Stuff+ are a fan of the Changeup, 18 pitches is simply too small of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions about the results of the pitch.
As shown by the table above, the Sinker has been Hicks’s most utilized pitch this season, generating a 19.8% Whiff Rate and .318 xwOBA on 59.3% usage. Hicks has been utilizing two Sliders this season, a tight Slider and a new Sweeper, which have both generated Whiff Rates of over 50%. With a few improvements to his pitch arsenal this season, Jordan Hicks has been able to improve his Strikeout Rate to a career-high 32.2% this season, making him an ideal trade candidate for a team in need of bullpen help at the trade deadline.
Improvement #1: New Sweeper
Jordan Hicks has been a prime example of someone who has benefited from the Sweeper craze taking over Major League Baseball in 2023, as the addition of the Sweeper to his pitch arsenal has improved his ability to generate Whiffs this season.
As shown by the table above, Hicks has split his Slider usage from last season into two different pitches: a tighter Slider and a new Sweeper. Both pitches generate Whiff Rates of over 50%, while the Sweeper performs better against opposing hitters by measures of wOBA and xwOBA. Given the platoon splits of the Sweeper, Hicks utilizes the pitch more frequently to right-handed hitters while he primarily uses the Slider to left-handed hitters. Utilizing both of these Sliders in his pitch arsenal has allowed Hicks more effective against left-handed hitters, as he is able to mitigate the effects of platoon splits by throwing a more tighter Slider to the opposite handedness, while also being able to throw a Sweeper with more optimal effectiveness to right-handed hitters.
The movement plots above illustrate the difference in horizontal movement between Hick’s Slider and Sweeper, which has allowed for him to utilize both pitches in order to generate more Whiffs this season. In addition, Hicks has also increased the velocity on his Sliders this season, currently averaging ~87 MPH. Along with the altered movement profiles, this increase in velocity helps to explain some of the 20 point increase in Stuff+ Hicks has experienced with his Sliders this season. Pairing the new Sweeper with a tight Slider has allowed for Jordan Hicks to generate more Whiffs, increasing his Strikeout Rate and turning him into one of the best relievers available on the market this trade deadline.
Improvement #2: Increased Four Seamer Usage
Another adjustment that Jordan Hicks made to his pitch arsenal this season was adding a Four Seamer to his repertoire. As someone who has been known for being one of the hardest throwing pitchers in the Majors since making his debut, Hicks’s primary Fastball has been his Sinker, which he has been able to command well and utilize to induce weak contact. The addition of a Four Seamer gives Hicks another offering that he can utilize to generate Whiffs against opposing hitters.
As shown by the table above, Hicks has generated more Whiffs to right and left handed hitters this season with his Fastballs than he did last season before he added a Four Seamer. The addition of the Four Seamer has particularly created issues for left-handed hitters, as their Isolated Power against Hicks’s Fastballs have decreased as well. Conversely, right-handed hitters are hitting for more power against the pitch, but this is offset by the increase in Whiff Rate, in my opinion.
By measure of FanGraphs Stuff+, Jordan Hicks’s Four Seamer ranks as the 7th best Four Seamer in all of Major League Baseball (minimum 20 innings pitched). This high Stuff+ grade, as well as the high Whiff Rates that Hicks is able to generate with the pitch, indicate to me that Hicks under-utilizes his Four Seamer, and I would recommend that he utilizes the pitch more often in the future in order to further increase his Strikeout Rate, and improve his overall effectiveness.
Concluding Thoughts:
With a revamped pitch arsenal, including the addition of a new Sweeper and increased usage of his Four Seamer, Jordan Hicks has emerged as a standout trade candidate for teams seeking bullpen reinforcement at the upcoming trade deadline. Hicks’s new Sweeper has capitalized on current trends in the game, generating impressive Whiff Rates and improved outcomes against both left-handed and right-handed hitters. Additionally, Hicks’s new Four Seamer ranks among the top in the league by Stuff+ metrics and also generates impressive Whiff Rates, further enhancing his effectiveness on the mound. With a career-high strikeout rate amid impending free agency, Hicks presents an enticing opportunity for contending teams in need of bullpen help. As the trade deadline approaches, he should be on the radar of teams looking to strengthen their bullpen as they make a push for a spot in the postseason.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard.