Trade Deadline Target: José Cuas
(6/10/23) With an under-utilized Fastball, José Cuas could be one of the most underrated relief pitchers on the move at the Trade Deadline.
Originally published on Medium on June 10, 2023.
With the trade deadline quickly approaching, Major League organizations are setting their sights on potential trade targets to bolster their rosters for a run at the Postseason. Shoring up the bullpen is often a goal for contending teams at the deadline, and this season a variety of relievers are expected to be discussed in trade negotiations, such as Aroldis Chapman, Joe Kelly, and Keynan Middleton. One under-the-radar relief pitcher that I would target at the trade deadline would be José Cuas of the Kansas City Royals. With an under-utilized Fastball and an underrated collection of secondary offerings, José Cuas has the potential to be one of the most important trade deadline targets for an organization looking to bolster their bullpen.
Overview:
José Cuas’s pitch arsenal currently features four pitches: a Sinker, Slider, Four Seamer, and Changeup. Run Values indicate that the Sinker and the Four Seamer are Cuas’s best pitches, while FanGraphs’s Stuff+ model believes the Four Seamer and the Slider are the best offerings in Cuas’s arsenal.
As shown by the table above, the Sinker has been his most utilized pitch this season, generating a 19.0% Whiff Rate and .342 xwOBA on 52.5% usage. Despite being utilized only 10.7% of the time, Cuas’s Four Seamer appears to be his most productive pitch, generating a 40.0% Whiff Rate and .258 xwOBA so far this season. With a couple adjustments to his pitch utilization, José Cuas can become one of the most underrated relief pitchers available on the trade market this season.
Adjustment #1: Increase Usage of the Four Seamer:
One adjustment José Cuas can make to improve the overall effectiveness of his pitch arsenal is to increase the usage of his Four Seam Fastball. Throughout the entirety of the 2022 season, as well as the beginning of this season, Cuas’s arsenal consisted solely of a Sinker-Slider-Changeup combination which resulted in a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. However, since the beginning of May, Cuas has introduced the Four-Seamer into his pitch arsenal and appears to be increasing its usage with each successive appearance.
It is logical why Cuas is increasing his Fastball usage, because the pitch is one of the best in the game according to pitch modeling metrics. Personally, I am a believer that a pitcher’s Stuff+ on their Four Seam Fastball is a major indicator of overall success, due to the frequency in which Four Seamers are typically utilized, as well as the relative stability of Fastball shapes over time. Taking a look at FanGraphs’s rankings of top Fastballs by measure of Stuff+, the top of the list consists of some of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball.
As shown by the table above, among pitchers with at least 40 Fastballs thrown, José Cuas has the 3rd best Four Seamer in all of Major League Baseball this season, by measure of Stuff+. While 51 pitches may seem like a small sample size for determining how good a pitch’s shape is relative to the rest of the league, one of the more powerful features of Fastball Stuff+ is that it “stabilizes” very quickly, indicating that 149 Stuff+ is close to an accurate depiction of Cuas’s Fastball shape. In addition to the excellent shape Cuas possesses on his Fastball, Cuas also has a deceptive side-arm delivery that allows for the pitch to be dominant at the top of the strike zone.
For those who aren’t familiar, Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) is a pitching metric that measures the vertical angle at which a pitch approaches home plate. Fastballs with flatter VAA’s tend to perform better at the top of the strike zone, while Sinkers with steeper VAA’s perform better at the bottom of the strike zone.
Among pitchers with at least 40 Fastballs thrown this season, José Cuas has the third flattest Vertical Approach Angle, indicating that his Four Seamer is best located at the top of the strike zone. With an elite Stuff+, as well as an ideal Vertical Approach Angle to locate the pitch up in the zone, one would expect Cuas to utilize his Four Seamer more than 10.7% of the time.
As shown by the table above, Cuas throws the Four Seamers more frequently to LHH than to RHH. Against both LHH and RHH, Cuas is below league-average at locating the pitch in the strike zone while he is well above league-average at generating Chases, Whiffs in the Strike Zone, and Ground Balls with the pitch. If Cuas makes the Four Seamer the most prominent pitch in his arsenal and increases its usage to around 40% of the time, then I believe this will be a major step to improving the overall effectiveness of his pitch arsenal.
Adjustment #2: Revamped Usage of Secondary Pitches
In addition to an under-utilized Four Seamer, José Cuas also possesses a couple impressive secondary pitches, whose effectiveness can be improved upon with more optimal utilization. Cuas currently utilizes his Sinker the most, as it is his most productive pitch according to Run Values, and mixes in a Slider and his Changeup as his off-speed pitches.
As shown by the pitch movement plot above, Cuas’s Slider generates plenty of movement differentiation from his other pitches, while his Changeup is essentially a slower and less-productive version of his Sinker. In order to increase the effectiveness of his pitch arsenal, I believe that Cuas needs to virtually eliminate usage of the Changeup, utilizing the Sinker in its place to left-handed hitters.
As shown by the table above, Cuas’s Sinker performs better than his Changeup at generating Ground Balls and In-Zone Whiffs against LHH, while the Sinker is a bit less effective at generating chases outside of the zone. Cuas has also been able to locate his Sinker in the strike zone more effectively than his Changeup. For these reasons, I believe the Sinker can be utilized as an effective “secondary” pitch to LHH on the outer part of the zone if Cuas increases the utilization of his Fastball up in the zone.
According to Stuff+, Cuas’s Slider is his 2nd-best pitch in his arsenal, however it has been his least-productive pitch this season according to Run Values. Cuas is very effective at generating Whiffs with the pitch, however he has had difficulty locating the pitch in the strike zone and generating ground balls. As with the Sinker versus LHH, I believe performance of the Slider will only improve alongside increased usage of the Fastball, as the pitch can be utilized as an effective off-speed “chase” pitch.
Concluding Thoughts:
With an under-utilized Fastball and an underrated collection of secondary offerings, José Cuas has the potential to be one of the most important trade deadline targets for an organization looking to bolster their bullpen. Whether or not the Kansas City Royals decide to make José Cuas available on the trade block this season is yet to be seen, however as a team far away from contention, I would imagine the Royals would make nearly all of their bullpen arms available at the right price. One factor that might make Cuas more attractive than the other Royals bullpen arms, such as Aroldis Chapman, is that Cuas still has 5 seasons of team control remaining. Conversely, the Royals asking price for Cuas might be high given the amount of team control he has left, and it is possible that Kansas City is planning for Cuas to become an integral part of their bullpen when they are ready to contend in the future. Regardless of where he is pitching come August, José Cuas has the potential to become an impactful bullpen arm for a contending team with just a few alterations to his existing pitch arsenal.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard.