Trade Deadline Targets: Relief Pitchers
Three relief pitchers that I would target at the trade deadline.
With the July 30th trade deadline fast approaching, organizations around Major League Baseball are making critical decisions about whether they should “buy” or “sell” at the trade deadline and are identifying which players are appealing targets for potential acquisition. Relief pitchers are always targeted at the trade deadline as constructing a bullpen is typically the last step in constructing a championship-contending roster, and acquiring an extra arm at the deadline can provide a team with the additional reinforcements needed for making a deep Postseason run. Given the expanded Postseason format, as well as the relatively random nature of the playoff format in general, making marginal improvements to a roster at the trade deadline can have a big impact on team success come October. In this article, I will break down three relief pitchers (Lucas Erceg, Victor Vodnik, and Tanner Scott) I would target for acquisition at the trade deadline.
Lucas Erceg (RHP - Oakland Athletics):
While most of the attention in the Oakland bullpen this season has gone to their outstanding closer Mason Miller, Lucas Erceg has had an impressive start to the 2024 season. In 31 appearances this season, Erceg has produced a 27.5% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, and 19.1% K-BB over 31.0 innings pitched, making him potentially an attractive trade target for contending teams at the trade deadline.
As shown by the table above, Erceg’s arsenal consists of four pitches: a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider, and a changeup. Erceg primarily uses the sinker, slider, and four-seamer against right-handed hitters, while relying on his four-seamer and changeup against left-handed hitters. All four of Erceg’s pitches rate as above league-average according to aStuff+ (with the sinker and changeup grading as one standard deviation above league-average), which allows him to utilize his best offerings to the appropriate handedness (ex. sinkers primarily to right-handed hitters, changeups primarily to left-handed hitters), a valuable trait for relief pitchers as this allows him to effectively face both left and right-handed hitters.
One reason why Erceg has seen more success so far this season has been due to his increased command. Throughout his professional career, Erceg has consistently produced walk rates of greater than 12% at each minor league level, culminating in a 14.3% walk rate during his major league debut last season. This season, Erceg has decreased his walk rate to 8.2% and location models such as FanGraphs’s Location+ also indicate that Erceg has demonstrated improved command so far this season. In my opinion, the most significant change that Erceg has made in 2024 has been locating his four-seam fastball at the top of the zone more frequently, which is likely the contributing factor behind the increased whiff rate on the offering (from 19.3% in 2023 to 34.3% in 2024). Command changes, as measured by Location+, are less sticky year-to-year than stuff changes, so there is a possibility that Erceg will regress to a 10%+ walk rate in the future, however, the combination of a four-pitch “plus-stuff” arsenal combined with demonstrated command/location improvements makes Lucas Erceg one of my favorite potential trade targets available at this year’s trade deadline.
Victor Vodnik (RHP - Colorado Rockies):
Acquired from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Pierce Johnson last July, Victor Vodnik has been a fixture in the Colorado Rockies bullpen this year, with 46.0 innings pitched across 38 appearances so far this season. While a 20.4% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate might suggest that Vodnik cannot become a high-leverage reliever, there appear to be some adjustments that he could make in a new environment to reach his full potential.
As shown by the table above, Vodnik’s pitch arsenal consists of three pitches: a four-seamer, a slider, and a changeup. Vodnik utilizes his four-seamer 65% of the time, and he has been able to generate an average velocity of 97.7 MPH on the offering so far this season. Vodnik’s changeup is his highest-grading pitch according to aStuff+ and despite a below-average ability to generate swing-and-miss with the pitch, the offering has been effective at generating sub-optimal contact this season (.144 wOBA, .242 xwOBA).
Vodnik’s slider grades as a 102 aStuff+ primarily because the pitch has an average velocity of 83.9 MPH and bullet/gyro sliders typically need an average velocity of at least 85 MPH to be considered a plus pitch by aStuff+. Given the velocity he has exhibited with his four-seamer, I am surprised that he is not able to throw his slider at a higher average velocity. Perhaps a grip change on how he throws the slider could be necessary in order for him to improve the average velocity on the offering. Replacing the slider with a sweeper could also be an effective adjustment, as the increased horizontal movement on the sweeper reduces the velocity threshold that the pitch needs to reach to be considered “plus”.
A main factor that could be limiting the amount of production that Vodnik has been able to produce this season is the fact that the Colorado Rockies play their home games at Coors Field. As mentioned in a previous article, Average aStuff+ by Park and Hitter Leaderboards, altitude and environmental effects do have an effect on pitch quality in certain ballparks. It is no surprise to many baseball observers that given Colorado’s extreme altitude, Coors Field is the most unfriendly ballpark in Major League Baseball to pitchers in terms of aStuff+. As shown by the plots above, Coors Field environment has a significant effect on Vodnik’s four-seam fastball shape, particularly on the pitch’s induced vertical break. When pitching at home, Vodnik’s four-seamer almost always stays under 15 inches of induced vertical break, while on the road the offering mostly generates over 15 inches of induced vertical break. This has a major effect on the pitch quality of the four-seam fastball, as the pitch has an aStuff+ of 99 at home and 110 on the road (a difference of one standard deviation!).
This difference in pitch quality is backed up by Vodnik’s surface-level statistics, as he is currently producing a 22.9% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, and 14.6% K-BB on the road compared to an 18.1% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate, and 5.7% K-BB at home. It would be a safe assumption to make that Vodnik’s four-seam fastball quality will improve if he changes home ballparks, and it is exciting to project on how his overall aStuff+ might improve if he improves the slider and/or gets traded to a team with a ballpark that is favorable to aStuff+ such as the Rays or the Astros. This projectability makes Victor Vodnik one of my favorite potential trade deadline targets this season.
Tanner Scott (LHP - Miami Marlins):
Perhaps the player most likely to be traded at this year’s trade deadline among the three pitchers mentioned in this article, Tanner Scott has had another productive season as the Miami Marlins closer so far in 2024. While his strikeout rate has decreased to 27.3% so far this season compared to the 33.9% rate he produced last season, Scott can still be a valuable addition to the back of the bullpen for a postseason contender.
As shown by the table above, Scott’s pitch arsenal consists of two pitches: a four-seamer and a slider, with both of these pitches grading as at least one standard deviation above league-average by measure of aStuff+, with the four-seamer grading as a 115 and the slider grading as a 112. Both pitches have always graded out as above-average throughout Scott’s major league career, which has allowed him to consistently produce a high strikeout rate, such as the 33.9% rate he produced last season.
The decrease in strikeout rate this season can likely be attributed to the regression in location that Scott has experienced so far this season, particularly on his slider. As shown by the heat maps above, Scott was able to consistently locate his slider down-and-away to LHH and down-and-in to RHH last season, while this season his command of the offering has been a bit more scattered, with the pitch at times creeping either over the middle of the plate or below the zone. Scott has also been throwing his four-seamer more frequently than his slider this season for the first time since 2020, and throwing your primary whiff pitch less often will typically result in less overall swing-and-miss.
As mentioned earlier, command changes are less sticky year-to-year than stuff changes and it appears that Scott rode the effects of this variance to a career-low 7.8% walk rate last season. Given these conditions, it can be expected that Scott’s walk rate will remain high (around 14%) for the foreseeable future, however, since he is only pitching one inning at a time this is an issue of lesser importance than if he was a starting pitcher for example. Given the high-quality nature of his stuff, I would expect Scott’s strikeout rates to gradually increase over the remainder of the season, and given that he will be a free agent after the conclusion of the season, Tanner Scott projects to be a highly sought-after rental that I would target at this year’s trade deadline.
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