Trade Deadline Targets: Relief Pitchers
Three relief pitchers that I would target at the trade deadline.
With the July 31st trade deadline fast approaching, organizations around Major League Baseball are making critical decisions about whether they should “buy” or “sell” at the trade deadline and are identifying which players are appealing targets for potential acquisition. Relief pitchers are always targeted at the trade deadline as constructing a bullpen is typically the last step in constructing a championship-contending roster, and acquiring an extra arm at the deadline can provide a team with the additional reinforcements needed for making a deep Postseason run. Given the expanded Postseason format, as well as the relatively random nature of the playoff format in general, making marginal improvements to a roster at the trade deadline can have a big impact on team success come October. In this article, I will break down three relief pitchers (Griffin Jax, David Bednar, and Ronny Henriquez) I would target for acquisition at the trade deadline.
Griffin Jax (RHP - Minnesota Twins):
Forming one half of a dynamic duo in the Minnesota Twins bullpen with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax could be available on the trade market at the deadline, with the Twins under .500 at the time of writing this article. In 44 appearances this season, Jax has 37.9% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate, and 32.2% K-BB over 41.1 innings pitched, while “bad batted ball luck” (.383 BABIP) has caused him to underperform his peripheral metrics (3.92 ERA, 1.87 FIP), making him an attractive trade candidate due to both his underlying stuff and potential for positive regression in the final two months of the season.
As shown by the tables above, Jax possesses five pitches in his pitch arsenal: a sweeper, a changeup, a four-seam fastball, a sinker, and a cutter. Jax utilizes the sweeper, four-seamer, and changeup to both right and left-handed hitters, mixing in the sinker against right-handed hitters and the cutter against left-handed hitters, providing Jax with multiple fastballs to utilize against hitters of both handedness. Throughout his career, Jax has been an aStuff+ standout, with his 113 aStuff+ ranking as the 13th-highest in all of Major League Baseball. By measure of aStuff+, the best offering in Jax’s arsenal is his sweeper, with the pitch’s ~14 inches of horizontal movement at ~88 MPH contributing to the pitch’s aStuff+ grade of 123.
While Jax is well known for grading favorably in “stuff” models, an underrated aspect of Jax’s profile is his ability to consistently command his pitches. Among pitchers (both starters and relievers) with at least 600 pitches thrown this season, Jax’s 105 aLocation+ currently ranks as the 3rd-highest in all of Major League Baseball. This combination of excellent stuff and location ability results in Jax producing a 110 aPitching+, the highest in Major League Baseball so far this season (min. 600 pitches thrown). As shown by the heat maps above, Jax does a particularly good job at locating his sweeper and changeup in ideal locations for whiffs, with the sweeper’s 108 aLocation+ and the changeup’s 103 aLocation+ contributing to both offerings greater than 45% whiff rate.
Among the potential trade candidates in this article, I have the least amount of confidence that Jax will actually be traded at the deadline; however, he would be my priority target for a couple of reasons. First, as has been discussed, Jax is simply one of the best relief pitchers in all of Major League Baseball, and his underlying metrics suggest that he could experience even better on-field results over the final two months of the season. Second, I believe that Jax would be an ideal candidate to attempt a transition to the starting rotation in 2026. Over the past couple of seasons, there have been numerous attempts to transition relief pitchers to the rotation to maximize their value and their level of production, with varying levels of success. Pitchers such as Clay Holmes, Garrett Crochet, and Reynaldo López have been successful transitions, while Jordan Hicks and A.J. Puk have since moved back to roles in the bullpen.
Jax possesses all the tools necessary for transition from the bullpen to the rotation, with an arsenal that is equipped to face both right and left-handed hitters, as well as a demonstrated ability to possess above-average command, providing confidence that he would be able to effectively face a lineup multiple times as a starting pitcher. In addition, Jax displayed a curveball in his arsenal last season, which he dropped from his arsenal this season, and he could reintroduce this offering as an early in the count weapon upon moving to the starting rotation. Jax’s average velocity on all of his offerings will likely decrease upon such a transition, however, Jax is starting from such a high level of stuff quality that his sweeper would likely still grade as a plus offering, and the presence of multiple fastballs in his arsenal will help him stave off any regression in his fastball quality if the average velocity of the offering decreases to ~93 MPH, as he displayed in his previous stint as a starter. Given his length of remaining team control, present value as a reliever, and future potential as a starting pitcher, Griffin Jax would be my top trade target to pursue among this year’s class of available relief pitchers.
David Bednar (RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates):
A fixture in the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen over the past five seasons, David Bednar has compiled one of the best seasons of his career in 2025, currently producing a 34.6% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and 27.7% K-BB over 32.0 innings pitched so far this season. With the Pirates far removed from a potential Postseason berth, Bednar figures to be an ideal trade candidate for teams searching to acquire additional back-of-the-bullpen help at this year’s trade deadline.
As shown by the tables above, Bednar possesses three pitches in his arsenal: a four-seam fastball, a curveball, and a splitter, which are the same three pitches he has utilized over the entirety of his Major League career. Bednar uses all three pitches against both right and left-handed hitters, slightly toggling down the usage of the four-seamer and toggling up the usage of the splitter when facing left-handed hitters. By measure of aStuff+, the best pitch in Bednar’s arsenal is his four-seam fastball, with the pitch’s 18.1 inches of induced vertical movement from a 39-degree arm angle at 97.1 MPH contributing to the pitch’s aStuff+ grade of 115. While grading as below-average offerings by aStuff+, both the curveball and splitter are effective at generating swing-and-miss, with the curveball producing a 39.3% whiff rate and the splitter producing a 40.0% whiff rate so far this season.
A major contributor to Bednar's success this season has been his ability to locate his pitches in ideal locations. Bednar has been able to consistently locate his curveball down in the zone, especially down-and-away to right-handed hitters, which has allowed for the pitch to consistently generate swing-and-miss, and the consistent ability to locate the splitter down in the zone has been a major factor why the pitch has generated a 40.0% whiff rate this season. While his four-seam fastball has been spread throughout the zone this season, the pitch’s high stuff quality allows for the pitch to remain effective even when thrown to sub-optimal locations, such as down the heart of the plate.
After posting a stretch of three straight > 20% K-BB seasons from 2021-2023, Bednar struggled in 2024, producing a 22.1% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, and 11.5% K-BB over 57.2 innings pitched last season. This season can largely be attributed to a decline in Bednar’s ability to locate his pitches in ideal locations last season. Being able to command the baseball as a pitcher is very difficult, as research from Driveline Baseball indicates that the average miss distance for a given pitch is ~12 inches, and Max Bay found last year that a 0.5-degree difference in release angle can result in a 6-inch difference in pitch location. Given these factors, command/location ability can be quite variable year-to-year, and location metrics (such as aLocation+ and FGLocation+) are considerably less sticky year-to-year than stuff metrics.
As shown by the table above, Bednar experienced a notable decrease in his location metrics in 2024, with aLocation+, FGLocation+, and CommandBot all awarding Bednar with below-average location grades. This season, Bednar has experienced considerable positive regression in terms of his command abilities, with his 101 aLocation+, 107 FGLocation+, and 52 CommandBot, each grading as his highest value in each of the past three seasons. A major driver behind his increased command ability has been the improved locations of his curveball, which, after leaking out towards the heart of the plate in 2024, has been more frequently located down in the zone so far this season, likely contributing to the offering’s improved whiff rate from 24.5% in 2024 to 39.3% in 2025.
Similar to Jax, Bednar has also run into some bad “batted ball luck” this season, currently allowing a .342 BABIP, which has caused him to slightly underperform his peripherals so far this season (2.02 FIP, 2.53 ERA). While I am confident that Bednar will be productive to finish the 2025 season, his profile does carry some risk into 2026, his last season of team control. Bednar’s stuff grades have slightly declined this season, and a further regression in stuff quality combined with 2024’s lower location grades could cause the wheels to fall off on Bednar’s profile rather quickly in 2026. Despite these risks, the combination of above-average stuff ability, excellent peripheral metrics, and room for positive regression over the final two months of the season will certainly make Bednar an attractive and likely candidate to be traded at the deadline.
Ronny Henriquez (RHP - Miami Marlins):
Claimed off waivers by the Marlins after being designated for assignment by the Minnesota Twins last offseason, Ronny Henriquez has been one of the best relief pitchers in Major League Baseball this season. In 42 appearances this season, Henriquez has produced a 33.5% strikeout rate, and an 8.5% walk rate over 45.0 innings pitched, with his 25.0% K-BB ranking as the 17th-highest in all of Major League Baseball among qualified relievers.
As shown by the table above, Henriquez possesses five pitches in his arsenal: a sweeper, a four-seamer, a slider, a changeup, and a sinker. Henriquez utilizes both sliders and the four-seamer to hitters of both handedness, while utilizing the changeup solely as his primary pitch to left-handed hitters. While the sinker grades out favorably as a 117 aStuff+, Henriquez has only thrown 12 so far this season, all to right-handed hitters.
Henriquez added the sweeper to his pitch arsenal this season upon being acquired by Miami, and the pitch is arguably the most productive in his arsenal, producing a 45.9% whiff rate, .234 wOBA, and .262 xwOBA on 32.3% usage this season. By measure of aStuff+, the best offering in Henriquez’s arsenal is his four-seamer, with the pitch’s 18.5 inches of induced vertical movement from a 42-degree arm angle at 96.4 MPH contributing to the pitch’s aStuff+ grade of 119
While Henriquez has been extremely effective at generating swing-and-miss this season with a 36.3% whiff rate, I believe that there might be even more room for improvement in this area if he can locate his four-seamer higher in the zone. With the combination of plus induced vertical movement from a low release height, Henriquez is able to create a flat vertical approach angle on his four-seam fastball (making the pitch difficult to square-up when thrown up in the zone), with the offering averaging a -3.8 VAA in each of the past two seasons.
Vertical approach angle is heavily dependent on pitch location, and it is particularly impressive that Henriquez is able to create such a flat angle with the pitch despite consistently locating the pitch in the middle of the strike zone. The pitch’s high stuff quality allows for the offering to be successful even when utilized in the heart of the zone; however, it is intriguing to speculate whether the pitch would be able to generate even more swing-and-miss if located at the top of the zone more frequently. Commanding a baseball is hard, and perhaps locating the pitch towards the middle of the plate allows for the offering to tunnel more effectively with his sliders; however, given the flat approach angle he has demonstrated on the four-seamer, I would attempt to have him locate the pitch at the top of the zone more frequently in the future.
In my opinion, targeting Henriquez is simply a bet on his above-average stuff quality and his ability to continue generating high strikeout rates moving forward. Henriquez has five seasons of team control remaining; however, he is out of minor league options, complicating both his trade value and long-term outlook, as he provides very little roster flexibility with the lack of options, even though he remains cost-controllable for the foreseeable future. While less likely to be traded at the deadline than Bednar, I am confident that Henriquez has the foundation present to be an impact bullpen arm moving forward, whether he remains with the Marlins or is traded to a contending team at the trade deadline.
Thanks for reading!
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X and Adam Salorio on Substack for more in-depth MLB analysis. Photo credits to USA Today Sports, Emily Matthews, and Vincent Carchietta.
Statistics as of the end of play on July 13th, 2025.