Unlocking Power Potential: 5 Players Primed for a Weighted Bat Training Boost
(8/15/23) Exploring Weighted Bat Training's Impact on 5 Players' Power Potential for the Upcoming Season.
Originally published on Medium on August 15, 2023.
As summer gives way to fall and the Postseason looms closer, Major League Baseball front offices will be busy identifying potential players to acquire or further develop during the upcoming winter in an attempt to improve their organization’s fortunes in 2024. Each organization’s front office continuously aims to get better at spotting and obtaining players who are undervalued, as success in the off-season isn’t just about big trades and flashy signings; it also hinges on the effort put into finding and/or developing lesser-known (often less expensive) players.
The ability to identify offensive players who can further tap into their power potential is one way teams will look to identify undervalued players. With home runs being the most valuable attribute a player can provide to their team offensively, it is imperative that teams are able to identify players who have the potential to increase their power outputs, in order to maximize the value an individual player can provide to their team.
With the introduction of batted-ball data through Statcast, certain Major League Baseball teams have attempted to identify undervalued offensive players by identifying those who consistently hit the ball with force (exhibiting a high Hard Hit Rate and Max. Exit Velocity) but may not achieve optimal ball trajectory, in an effort to prompt these players to pull the ball in the air more frequently to increase their power output. The Tampa Bay Rays are one team in particular that has utilized this approach with success over the past few seasons.
Popularized by Jason Ochart, formerly of Driveline Baseball and currently Director of Hitting Development and Program Design with the Boston Red Sox, weighted bat training is a training method which can be used to increase a player’s bat speed, which in turn can improve a player’s Max. Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate. Instead of identifying players who can already hit the ball with extreme force, organizations can now identify players with ideal plate discipline and ball trajectory and focus on developing a player’s bat speed in order to unlock their full power potential.
In this article, I will be identifying players who I believe should use weighted bat training this offseason to improve their power output in 2024. In order to identify candidates who I believe should use this training method, I looked at players who had an O-Swing% less than 35%, a Max. Exit Velocity between 105–110, a Hard Hit% of at least 35%, and a Pulled Fly Ball% of at least 6.2%.
J.P. Crawford (SS) — Seattle Mariners:
One player that I believe should use weighted bats this offseason is J.P. Crawford of the Seattle Mariners. Crawford has already increased his offensive output this season, largely driven by a ~8% increase in his Hard Hit Rate, and this post regarding Crawford by Eno Sarris served as inspiration for the writing of this article.
As shown by the table above, J.P. Crawford has shown improving plate discipline and zone-contact skills throughout his Major League career, and has also begun to hit more pulled fly balls over the past two seasons. Crawford has struggled to consistently produce a Hard Hit Rate over 30% prior to this season, and I believe with weighted bat training he can increase his Max. Exit Velocity by a couple MPH and potentially hit a 40% Hard Hit Rate next season.
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Dylan Carlson (OF) — St. Louis Cardinals:
Another player that I believe should use weighted bats this offseason is Dylan Carlson of the St. Louis Cardinals. Since making his Major League debut in 2020, Carlson has experienced a trend of making more contact on the pitches in the zone, while producing a lower Barrel and Hard Hit Rate. In addition, Carlson has pulled fly balls more frequently as his career has progressed.
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If Carlson incorporates weighted bats into his offseason training and increases his Max. Exit Velocity by a couple MPH, it is easy to envision Carlson producing Hard Hit and Barrel Rates over 40% and 10% respectively, potentially resulting in a 20+ home run output in 2024.
Zack Short (2B) — Detroit Tigers:
Zack Short of the Detroit Tigers is another player that I believe should use weighted bat training this offseason. During his short stint in the Major Leagues, Short has been a relatively unheralded player despite displaying an impressive ability to control the strike zone, as shown by his O-Swing% and Z-Contact%. Despite a Hard Hit Rate of 35.2%, Short has shown an ability to pull fly balls, which gives reason to believe that weighted ball training can help Short tap into more power in the future.
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With an additional couple of MPH added to his Max. Exit Velocity next season, it is possible that Short can achieve a Hard Hit Rate over 40%, and a Barrel Rate over 10%. Similar to Dylan Carlson, a 20+ home run output would not be out of reach for Zack Short in 2024, and a high on-base percentage is possible as well given his outstanding ability to not chase pitches out of the strike zone. Short should get more playing time with the Tigers next season, and might be an intriguing trade candidate if Detroit elects to move on from the infielder this winter.
Oswaldo Cabrera (OF) — New York Yankees:
Oswaldo Cabrera of the New York Yankees is another player that can increase their power output next season if they incorporate weighted bat training during the offseason. Currently playing in his first full season in the Major Leagues, Cabrera has shown an ability to make contact on pitches in the zone and pull fly balls during his tenure with Yankees. Primarily due to a Hard Hit Rate of 35.3%, Cabrera’s isolated power has decreased to .099 over his first full season in the Majors, and increasing his bat speed and exit velocity may help the .182 isolated power he displayed in his debut season become more sustainable.
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Given the Yankees struggles in left field this season, Oswaldo Cabrera developing into an everyday left fielder would be a big revelation for a team hoping to rebound back into championship contention in 2024. With offseason weighted bat training, it would not be unreasonable to project Oswaldo Cabrera to return to the power he displayed in 2022, if he is able to increase his bat speed and exit velocity, and improve his Hard Hit and Barrel Rates next season.
Patrick Bailey (C)— San Francisco Giants:
Another player that I believe should use weighted bat training this offseason to increase their power output is Patrick Bailey of the San Francisco Giants. Since making his Major League debut on May 19th, Bailey has impressed observers by combining elite framing abilities behind the plate with league-average offensive production (101 wRC+ through August 14th). As shown by his Hard Hit and Barrel Rates, Bailey has already exhibited an ability to make hard contact, however he can add a couple MPH to his Max. Exit Velocity in order to unlock more power potential and produce more offensively in the future.
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With the use of weighted bat training this offseason, Patrick Bailey will be able to both sustain the power output he has displayed this season, while also unlocking more power potential in his offensive approach moving forward. Already one of the league’s best defensive catchers, Bailey has the potential to raise his ceiling and become a perennial All-Star if he is able to increase his power output next season.
Concluding Thoughts:
Recognizing untapped potential and undervalued players has become a priority for front offices who want to achieve positive off-season outcomes, and identifying players who can benefit from weighted bat training can be a successful strategy for developing players with untapped power potential. J.P. Crawford, Dylan Carlson, Zack Short, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Patrick Bailey are all players who control the strike zone well and pull fly balls, yet lack the sufficient raw power that weighted bat training can help them unlock to turn into significant power production.
I find it particularly interesting that 3 of the players that I have identified in this article (Dylan Carlson, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Patrick Bailey) are switch-hitters, which raises a few questions. Are switch-hitters more likely to fall into the pulled fly ball and good control of the zone hitter archetype? Do switch-hitters, on average, hit for lower exit velocities? Does weighted bat training work just as well for switch-hitters as it does for hitters of a single handedness? All of these questions are prime targets for future research to better understand why this phenomenon occurred. In conclusion, incorporating weighted bats into off-season training regimens can not only increase bat speed (impacting Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate in the process), but can also reshape trajectories of entire careers by unlocking player’s power potential and providing organizations with an opportunity to identify and develop undervalued offensive contributors.
Follow @MLBDailyStats_ on X (Twitter) for more in-depth MLB analysis. Statistics provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard. Statistics through the end of play on August 12th.